BOSNIA-HERCEGOVINA: Cease-fire Planned As U.N. Force Pulls Back

By Farhan Haq Reprint | | Print |

UNITED NATIONS, Oct 5 1995 (IPS) - The announcement of a cease-fire in Bosnia-Hercegovina Thursday came as U.N. officials plan to reduce the U.N. peacekeeping force there by some 9,000 soldiers.

Even as U.S. President Bill Clinton announced a conditional cease-fire to take effect in Bosnia Oct 10, Gen. Bernard Janvier, the U.N. force commander in Bosnia, declared plans to reduce the 30,500 U.N. Protection Force (UNPROFOR) troops to some 21,000.

The reductions will begin this month, the United Nations announced in a statement.

Combined with Clinton’s announcement, the troop reductions indicate a dramatic reduction in U.N. involvement as the United States takes over the reins in the Bosnian peace process.

“The United States clearly has the ball, so let them run with it, see what they can do,” one U.N. official said earlier this month.

Clinton confirmed that assessment when he announced Thursday from Washington that “the parties in Bosnia have agreed to a cease-fire to terminate all hostile military activities throughout the territory of Bosnia-Hercegovina.”

The cease-fire “greatly increases our chances to end the war and to achieve a peace,” Clinton added.

“We were aware of this development, and we welcome it,” U.N. spokesman Joe Sills said. He added that, if the conditions to implement the cease-fire are met over the next five days, “this is a very significant breakthrough.”

Agreement on the conditions may still be tricky. The Bosnian Serbs — who have besieged the Bosnian capital, Sarajevo, for years — must agree to restore utilities to the government-held city. Offensives by the Serbs and the Muslim-led government continue around the Serb-held city of Banja Luka, as well.

In addition, Croat forces, whose recent alliance with the Bosnian government is widely seen as tactical rather than strategic, were reported moving deep into northeastern Bosnia Thursday.

“There remain deep divisions to overcome,” Clinton said. “All I know is that we’re on the verge of a cease-fire. We’re going to do our best to get the cease-fire.”

Clinton added that the Bosnian, Croatian and Serbian governments agreed to peace talks in the United States, which are slated to begin Oct 25. Those talks will be brokered by the five- nation Contact Group, but the key negotiator — as in recent weeks — will be U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Richard Holbrooke.

Holbrooke won agreement on a cease-fire just one week after the Bosnian, Croatian and Serbian foreign ministers agreed in New York on principles to form a joint parliament and presidency in Bosnia. Those principles in turn complement a Sep 8 accord for Bosnia to remain a single state, which includes a parallel ‘Republika Srpska’ for Bosnian Serb separatists.

The proposals also agree to a rough division of Bosnia between the government-Croat federation, which is to gain 51 percent of the land, and the Serb separatists, who are to receive 49 percent.

The Holbrooke initiative has largely supplanted the U.N. peace process for Bosnia, which had similar guidelines. Although Sills said the United Nations has “consistently supported the Holbrooke initiative,” many diplomats concede Washington has pushed through its own process.

Susanna Agnelli, the Italian foreign minister, told IPS last week that even the Contact Group — Britain, France, Germany, Russia and the United States — has been supplanted by Holbrooke’s aggressive shuttle diplomacy.

“The Contact Group today is totally overruled by Mr. Holbrooke’s negotiations, which … is a personal negotiation he conducts himself,” Agnelli said.

But with Holbrooke’s approach showing results, the United Nations is only too happy to defer to Washington. Similarly, with Clinton indicating that he will dispatch 25,000 U.S. troops to Bosnia if a peace settlement results, UNPROFOR now is ready to diminish its often-frustrating role as peacekeeper.

U.N. Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali last month said that a multi-national force, perhaps led by the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), should replace UNPROFOR after a peace agreement. The United Nations has neither the resources not the mandate to police a Bosnian peace agreement, he warned.

UNPROFOR is already paving the way for greater NATO involvement by sending home entire battalions, as stated in its Thursday announcement.

UNPROFOR will send home full units from Bangladesh, Britain, Canada, the Netherlands and Pakistan, amounting to some 4,000 troops. It will also reduce troop strengths from other countries by some 2,000, and place some 3,000 British ‘Rapid Reaction Force’ soldiers on standby in Britain.

“The streamlined force that remains in the theatre will serve until the transition to deployment of an implementation force,” the statement said.

One U.N. source, speaking to IPS on condition he not be named, warned that the UNPROFOR reduction was just the first of a series of peacekeeping pullbacks sparked by the U.N.’s financial crisis. The United Nations has been unable to pay its more than three billion dollars annual peacekeeping costs — ironically enough, largely because the United States remains behind on payments.

As a result, the source said, the United Nations is more willing to defer to other countries’ initiatives, particularly when those countries, like the United States and Europe, can equip and outfit their own troops. A similar U.N. drawdown is expected in Rwanda within the next few days, the source added.

Sills could not confirm that the U.N. force in Rwanda is being reduced, but he said an announcement is expected soon.