N.KOREA: Defection of Kim’s Ex-wife Keeps East Asia on Edge

By Suvendrini Kakuchi Reprint | | Print |

Suvendrini Kakuchi

TOKYO, Feb 21 1996 (IPS) - The defection of the ex-wife of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has sparked renewed speculation among analysts in Tokyo that the Pyongyang regime is in a state of turmoil — and this could pose a threat to regional security.

“Its hard to verify facts given the shroud of secrecy the country is enveloped in. But there is no doubt North Korea is in some kind of turmoil, a situation that is heating up security tension in East Asia,” notes Masahiko Nakagawa, a senior analyst at the Institute of Developing Economies in Tokyo.

On top of the recent reports of a food shortage that threatens millions affected by last year’s flood rains, news broke last week of the defection of the first wife of the 54-year-old North Korean leader Kim Jong Il.

Song Hye Rim, 59, is the mother of Kim Jong Il’s eldest son Kim Jong Yam, who is believed to be being groomed by his father to be his heir. But South Korean intelligence reports suggest Kim’s present wife, his third, has insisted that one of her sons be his successor.

“She (Kim’s present wife) is said to be a dictatorial and ambitious woman with a strong influence over Kim,” said Ha Chung Nan, an analyst at Mindan, a semi-state organisation that represents South Koreans living in Japan.

“That is why Ms. Song suddenly decided her future is insecure as long as she is dependent on North Korea,” added Ha.

‘Chosun Ilbo’, a Seoul daily reported over the weekend that Song, her sister Hye Rang, 61, her niece and an aide had been living in Moscow until Jan. 20 before moving to Switzerland seeking political asylum in the West. Subsequent newspaper reports suggest they are seeking asylum in the United States.

Analysts say the United States would be keen to interview Song to find out more about Kim, who makes few public appearances. On Monday, he ventured into the public arena for the first time in almost a month when he attended a mass calisthenics performance in honour of his 54th birthday which was actually last Friday.

‘Radio Pyongyang’ reported that about 10,000 youths were involved in the performance entitled “Keeping the Red Flag Under the Guidance of the General” which was staged at a Pyongyang Gymnasium.

Still, unlike his charismatic father Kim Il Song, who was revered by the North Korean people until he died on Jul. 8 1994, the present North Korean leader does not yet command the same respect. So that while the state-censored press extols Kim’s virtues, he is yet to be formally endorsed as president.

Leadership issues aside, Kim has not had an easy 18 months since taking the helm.

Analysts say the economy has failed to recover since the collapse of the Soviet Union which had provided communist North Korea with an aid lifeline.

Last year’s floods exacerbated the problem, prompting proud Pyongyang to take the unprecedented step of asking for assistance from the international community.

But in an equally sudden shift in policy last week, Kim said that he would no longer accept any international aid — another significant development, say North Korean watchers, who believe that it is the 1.2 million strong army that is calling the shots.

“The reason behind Kim’s decision last week to reject international food aid comes from the military which does not want too much interference from outside,” says Ha, who warns that the battle-ready army may already be trying to convince Kim that war is an option.

“That could mean a bloody war in the peninsula and nobody wants that,” said Ha.

Seoul has put all its troops on special alert as of Dec. 7. Also, the United States, with 37,000 troops still remaining in South Korea, has stepped up vigilance along the peninsula.

“The recent series of precarious incidents in the North is an apparent indication that its system is collapsing. We need to prepare for it,” said Oh Se Eung, who chairs South Korea’s Unification and Foreign Affairs Committee.

China and Japan have also been monitoring the military build-up with reports in Chinese papers stating that Beijing would try to persuade Pyongyang from pursuing the war option.

In 1950, when the communist regime in North Korea attempted to reunite the peninsula by force, China backed Pyongyang against the U.S. led U.N. forces in the south. Beijing has however indicated through its official news agency that it is not prepared to become embroiled in a new peninsula war.

Nakagawa of the Institute of Developing Economies, says that Beijing may hold decisive sway on whether Pyongyang decides to try to fight its way out of difficulty.

Military assistance and food, despite Beijing’s recent coolness to the North, could be extended in time of a crisis because China does not want the North to collapse, said a recent report carried by the ‘Korea Report’, a South Korean daily.