JAPAN-RUSSIA: For Now, Kurile Islands Dispute Put on the Shelf

By Suvendrini Kakuchi Reprint | | Print |

Suvendrini Kakuchi

TOKYO, Apr 22 1996 (IPS) - Japanese foreign ministry officials and political analysts say Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto was right not to try to pressure Russian President Boris Yeltsin to settle a decades old territorial dispute during weekend talks in Moscow.

The timing was simply not right, say analysts, explaining that Yeltsin — faced with a strong challenge from a resurgent communist opposition bloc, would surely adopt a nationalistic stance ahead of Russian presidential elections in June.

Hashimoto, who was in Moscow for three days for a Group of Seven (G-7) heads of government meeting, is reported to have raised the matter with Yeltsin — but did not lean on him for a decision regarding the disputed Kurile Islands.

“I think the prime minister made the most of what could have been expected from his meeting with Yeltsin,” said a government official who accompanied Hashimoto to Moscow.

According to foreign ministry officials, Hashimoto did not want the dispute to become an election issue since it could see Yeltsin back-tracking on a 1993 declaration to have the matter resolved peacefully.

“Russia for the time being will not have enough room to become positive in its approach toward Japan because of its (Russia’s) domestic situation,” the English language ‘Japan Times’ quoted a foreign ministry official saying.

The disputed territory lies north of Japan and includes the islands of Kunashiri, Etorofu, Shikotan and Habomai, which were seized by the former Soviet Union at the end of the second World War.

Analysts, and foreign ministry officials, referring to the commitment made by the Russian president to resolve the dispute in a written declaration three years ago, say the best chance of settling the issue amicably is to see Yeltsin returned to office during the June presidential elections.

They argue that his strongest opponent in the presidential race, Gennady Zyuganov, the Communist Party leader, would be less receptive to resolving the dispute or more importantly to returning the islands to Japan.

“Yeltsin talks about returning the islands base on principles of law and justice,” says Naoki Usui, a noted Japanese defence analyst. “Yeltsin is very important for Japan, so Hashimoto did not want to put him in a corner by bringing up the territorial dispute,” he told IPS Monday.

Another defence analyst, Kazuhiko Ogawa, agrees, adding that Japan has for too long “neglected its diplomacy with Russia” because of the territorial dispute. “This is unwise when taken against the unpredictable and destabilising factors that still exist in East Asia.”

Japanese analysts say that reformed Russia still could have a key geo-political role to play in the post-Cold War era that has resulted in increasing, rather than diminishing tension in East Asia — particularly along the Korean peninsula and on the Taiwan Strait.

Russia, could for example, still be an influential player in cooling tempers in communist North Korea which has threatened to break the truce that has divided North and South since the 1950-53 Korean war.

Similarly, Moscow and Beijing continue to build ties with Yeltsin due to visit China on Wednesday in a trip that should cement new military and economic cooperation agreements.

“China and Russia have forged ahead towards a deeper relationship leaving out Japan,” says the “Asahi Shinbum”, a leading Japanese daily. It added that it is high time Japan “shelve the island dispute and work toward a new confidence building with Russia”.

Hashimoto did just that and was happy to instead return to Japan Sunday with the news that he got Yeltsin’s word that Moscow would no longer dump radio-active waste in the Sea of Japan. Russia dumped 900 tonnes of liquid radioactive waste into the Sea of Japan in 1993.

The Japanese prime minister also returned with the news that he and Yeltsin had held talks aimed at reaching a fisheries pact that would take in the waters surrounding the disputed territory. Presently, Japanese fishermen trawling the waters around the islands do so at the risk of attack from Russian patrol boats.

A fishing pact, just like a resolution to the territorial will however have to wait until after June — and then it may be dependent on who holds the reins of power in Russia.

Japan, like the United States and Europe is clearly in Yeltsin’s corner and by allowing Moscow to host the G-7 meeting, the intention was clearly aimed at giving the president a boost in his election campaign.

“Considering the circumstances (in Russia), it was better not to press the Russian side on the territorial issue,” said the ‘Japan Times’. “Strong demands by Japan on the return of the islands could easily trigger strong repercussions in Russia,” the paper added.