INDONESIA: Habibie Has Legal Clout, But Political Power?

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Kafil Yamin

JAKARTA, May 21 1998 (IPS) - New Indonesian President Bacharuddin Jusuf Habibie is armed with a full legal mandate to lead the country, but he will be hard pressed to prove his legitimacy and credibility in the coming weeks.

The 61-year-old Habibie, who had been vice president until President Suharto’s resignation Thursday, now faces the task of restoring some degree of economic stability and political peace under the watchful, even distrusting, eyes of many Indonesians.

The first order of the day is to regain economic confidence at a time when the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and Asian Development Bank have suspended the release of bail-out funds amid chaos in the crisis-stricken country.

Habibie is also expected to put into place a process of political reforms, including a more open political system that Suharto himself had pledged earlier in the week under public pressure.

But Habibie’s task is hampered by the fact that he is Suharto’s handpicked successor and old friend, raising questions on whether he can be much different from his political patron.

The friendship between Suharto and Habibie, a former research and technology minister with a penchant for projects like the development of Indonesian aircraft, goes back to the fifties.

Amien Rais, the Muslim leader who had played a key part in anti- Suharto protests in recent months, said he sees Habibie only as a transitional leader and would “withhold endorsement” of his government until he names a new Cabinet.

Habibie’s Cabinet would be acceptable if it is clean and without nepotism, said Rais, head of the 28-million strong Muslim organisation called Muhammadiyah.

“If he fails to show strong commitment to alleviating corruption, collusion and nepotism, he’ll face our opposition. But if he succeeds, he’ll win our support to accomplish presidential term until the year 2003,” added Rais, who last week had announced he was ready to replace Suharto.

Rais also said the new Cabinet line-up should “accommodate all forces and elements within Indonesian society”, and not people who represent the old elite interests.

Already, some student protesters have rejected Habibie. “He is Suharto’s crony. There will be no good prospects for reform,” one student leader here said.

“He (Habibie) is not a democrat. He is allergic to criticism. He contributed a great deal to the closures of three media organisations,” recalled another student, referring to the Indonesian government’s closure of the outspoken ‘Tempo’, ‘Editor’ and ‘DeTik’ magazines a few years ago.

Indeed, analysts say a change in leadership is not the same as political reform or openness, and may only be the first in the long, tortuous process marked by uncertainty.

Sarwono Kutsumaatdja, a former government official, said “Habibie has power in the legal sense, but it doesn’t mean he has the legitimacy to carry out (plans) for the future”.

Many see Habibie as a temporary figure, one whose assumption was needed to give a semblance of orderly transition from Suharto’s 32-year rule and avoid more violence given clashes between protesters and security forces in recent weeks.

While the military has expressed its backing for him, Habibie has no power base of his own and became vice president less than three months ago solely because of Suharto’s backing.

Though he supposedly can count on key support among Muslim groups, Habibie was not popular among the military when he became vice president and many businessmen were reportedly wary of his ambitious projects and grasp of economics.

But this lack of a single power base is precisely his strength, argued Dewi Fortuna Anwar, a political analyst and spokesman for Habibie.

This would force him to consult with and strike a balance among various groups and sectors, aware of the people’s demand for a change not just in personalities but Indonesia’s restrictive political system, she explained. “He will have to be more democratic,” Anwar said.

She said Habibie’s priorities should be to set up a “reform committee”, which Suharto had tried to form, to identify political laws that need to be changed; to undertake economic reform; and to name a credible Cabinet.

One economic analyst, who declined to be named, said the effect of Habibie’s leadership on Indonesia’s economic prospects remained uncertain. “In a battered economy like this, we don’t have reasons to be too optimistic about having a big spender on top. But what we can do now is wait and see,” he said.

Dikdik J Rachbini, director of the INDEF economic research centre, was more blunt: “If he proceeds to stay on until 2003, I just cannot imagine what will become of this bankrupt economy.”

Analysts say there seems little room now for elections to be held soon, in contrast to Suharto’s pledge Tuesday to call parliamentary polls “as soon as possible”.

On Thursday, Suharto said Habibie would serve out the rest of his term until 2003, following the succession provision in the 1945 Constitution.

Right after Habibie was sworn in, defense chief and armed forces chief Wiranto said “we (the military) support and endorse the ascendancy of Habibie to the presidency” and that the transfer was in keeping with the Constitution.

But some Muslim academics believe that an extraordinary meeting of the People’s Consultative Assembly (MPR) — the same body that gave Suharto and Habibie new electoral mandates in March — was still needed to confirm Habibie’s leadership.

In an interview, one law lecturer said that in case the president is unable to finish his term, he is to return his mandate to the MPR, which will then decide whether to name the vice president a caretaker president or confirm him as president.

“The president cannot transfer the people’s mandate. Only the people, through the MPR, can hand it out to someone else,” said the lecturer at the Trisakti University.

Indeed, some critics are not satisfied with seeing a new face — Habibie’s — under the old set-up, with the same structures, bureaucrats and military chiefs as before.

Mochtar Prabotinggi, a political analyst, said political reforms need to go beyond the presidency to the nature of the MPR, which has been known as little more than a rubber stamp over the years.

“The House should be dismantled now. The House is one of the collusion centres in this country,” he said. The Speaker of House Harmoko had earlier given Suharto until Friday to step down or face impeachment by the same body that gave him a seventh, five- year term in March.

Added one student leader who had camped outside the assembly building: “The House should hold an extraordinary meeting immediately and hold general elections. We will rebuild this ailing House.”