ENVIRONMENT-CLIMATE: Post-2000 Consensus Needed on Global Warming

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Ramesh Jaura

BONN, Oct 20 1999 (IPS) - Crucial talks begin here next week to hammer out a world-wide consensus on reducing the output of ‘greenhouse’ gases, generally agreed to be the cause of global warming.

About 5,000 government officials, representatives of the international business community and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) will attend the 10-day conference, known as the Fifth Session of the Conference of Parties (COP), which starts Oct. 25.

Delegates face the sombre backdrop of continuously increasing temperatures across the globe and must agree in cutting emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases, says Michael Zammit Cutajar, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

In fact emissions from industrial countries are expected to increase 18 percent above 1990 levels by the year 2010, unless effective action is taken, Zammit Cutajar says.

An agreed plan for taking such action is set out in the 1997 Kyoto Protocol that emerged after intensive discussions from a previous COP gathering.

Once it comes into force and becomes legally binding, the protocol will commit the socalled “annex one” developed countries to individual emissions targets for the period 2008-2012.

The desired result would be a reduction of more than 5 percent in the emissions of heat-trapping gases from developed countries, compared to 1990 levels.

By arresting and reversing the upward trend in greenhouse gas emissions that started in these countries 150 years ago, the protocol promises to move the international community one step closer to achieving the objective of the Convention emerging from the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992.

In the Kyoto Protocol, the developed countries commit themselves to reducing their collective emissions of six key greenhouse gases by at least 5 percent.

This group target will be achieved through cuts of 8 percent by Switzerland, most Central and East European states, and the European Union (EU) which intends meeting its target by distributing different rates among its members.

The protocol also commits the United States to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 7 percent and Canada by 6 percent. Hungary, Japan, and Poland.

Russia, New Zealand, and Ukraine must stabilise their emissions, while Norway may increase emissions by up to 1 percent, Australia by up to 8 percent, and Iceland 10 percent.

However, the protocol will only enter into force and become legally binding when it has been ratified by at least 55 countries- including developed countries that account for at least 55 percent of emissions from industrial nations.

To date, only 15 countries – all from the developing world – have ratified the protocol. The list does not include China and India, which have large emissions although still below those of the industrial states.

Developed countries in general and the United States in particular, until now, have been reluctant to ratify the Kyoto Protocol.

They continue to argue over the economic implications of a rapid transition to a lower-emissions economy – including the potential impact on trade competitiveness, both among themselves and vis-a- vis those developing countries now in the process of industrialising.

Against this backdrop, the Bonn conference must define the rules by which developed countries can lower the costs of meeting their targets by reducing emissions in other countries through the so- called flexibility mechanisms, Zammit Cutajar says.

A related issue will be determining the consequences for a country of failing to comply with the protocol targets.

“The talks may also open the way for key developing countries to become more involved in addressing climate change in the future,” says Zammit Cutajar, in a reference to China and India whose coming on board has been made a pre-condition by the US Senate for ratifying the protocol.

All negitiations are scheduled to be completed at the final conference on climate change, due to take place in the Hague, the Netherlands in Nov 2000 – the same month as US presidential elections.

because of this clash of dates, the Hague meeting may be postponed until the Spring of 2001, according to some observers.

But whatever date, the “crunch” will come in the Hague, said the UNFCCC executive secretary, adding: “The final results will have to satisfy the major industrial countries, trigger their ratification of the protocol, and offer incentives to developing countries to take further action in the future.”

Zammit Cutajar said the Bonn conference must build confidence in a successful outcome at The Hague by adopting important technical decisions, sending positive signals to business and industry, and engaging Ministers fully in the task of focusing and speeding up the negotiations.”