POLITICS-ARGENTINA: Voting for Change with Stability

By Marcela Valente Reprint | | Print |

Marcela Valente

BUENOS AIRES, Oct 18 1999 (IPS) - Argentina’s voters will opt for change with stability in Sunday’s elections, after 10 years of government led by Carlos Menem, say analysts.

And polls indicate that to achieve that aim, an overwhelming majority will vote for Fernando de la Rúa, the candidate of the opposition Alliance, a coalition formed in 1997 by the centrist Unión Cívico Radical (UCR) and the left-leaning Frente País Solidario (Frepaso).

Analysts say Argentinians want an austere and transparent government, with policies aimed at pulling down the 14.5 percent unemployment rate and achieving a more equitable distribution of wealth while effectively administering public resources.

The platforms of both leading candidates, De la Rúa and the ruling Justicialista (Peronist) party’s Eduardo Duhalde, are based on continued economic stability, the generation of jobs, support for small and medium companies, and a return to a stronger role by the state in guaranteeing health services, education and a more even distribution of wealth.

However, De la Rúa is leading the polls with a 45 percent approval rating, compared to Duhalde’s 30 percent, and everything points to a smashing victory for the opposition alliance on Oct 24.

The Alliance was formed when the UCR, founded over 100 years ago, saw its influence waning nationwide, with the exception of the capital, where De la Rúa was elected mayor of the city of Buenos Aires in 1996.

Since then, De la Rúa – previously a long-time member of Congress – has headed the Buenos Aires city government, which has chalked up a budget surplus despite the bulky debt it inherited from the previous Justicialista party administration.

The director of Gallup Argentina, Marita Carballo, told IPS that “De la Rúa really personifies the change of style the people are calling for.”

Analysts say that under De la Rúa, seen as a moderate and predictable politician, the country will be more “boring” – an advantage in today’s Argentina.

De la Rúa seems to have convinced voters that his dull personality is a virtue. His image as an austere administrator has also helped differentiate him from Menem’s showy style, much more than Duhalde has been able to do.

Menem’s 10 years in power have been marked by a series of corruption scandals, while De la Rúa is described as “honest and serious.”

Menem’s family life has involved publicity and scandal, with his divorce from Zulema Yoma entailing her eviction by the police from the presidential residence, as well as tragedy with his son’s death in a helicopter crash, regarded by his parents – and many Argentinians – as an assassination.

De la Rúa’s wife and three children, meanwhile, have remained in the background, refusing to grant interviews.

The Alliance’s candidate even gave up golf, which Menem had converted into a symbol of frivolousness and lack of social sensitivity.

Critics of Duhalde, meanwhile, the governor of the province of Buenos Aires – home to nearly 40 percent of Argentina’s population of 35 million – say his administration, characterised by public works, has failed to significantly improve the socioeconomic situation of people in the region.

Analysts say Duhalde – governor of the province since 1991 – failed to curb the levels of rising crime, corruption and unemployment, the chief concerns mentioned by Argentinians today.

When publicity spots show Duhalde promising new jobs, reduced taxes and loans for local businesses, many voters wonder “why didn’t he do that in his province?”

But the question asked by the governor’s campaign advisers, pollsters and political analysts is “What happened to Duhalde?”

In May, the governing party candidate looked set to win the elections, capitalising on the economic stability achieved by Menem, who reined in runaway inflation that had soared to four- digit figures with a currency board that has kept the peso pegged to the dollar.

But Duhalde is now facing the worst defeat in the history of the Justicialista party, founded as a populist movement in the 1940s by Juan Perón but transformed, since Menem took power in 1989, into a bastion of free-market economics.

In 1983, the party’s candidate Italo Luder lost with 42 percent of the votes to the UCR’s Raul Alfonsin (1983-89), which forced the Peronist party to undertake a complete renovation.

Duhalde’s bigshot Brazilian campaign manager Duda Mendonca is also blamed for the candidate’s poor showing in opinion polls. The polling firm Manuel Mora y Araujo says Mendonca took the wrong track with his glittery publicity campaign, which failed to exploit the contrast between Duhalde’s human warmth and his opponent’s reserve.

But one of the key factors crippling Duhalde’s bid for the presidency was Menem’s insistence on a third consecutive term, even though banned by the constitution, which unleashed a power struggle in the governing party.

At every chance he got, Menem claimed he would have been a better candidate than Duhalde.

Duhalde, who first campaigned on a platform of “continuity” in terms of Menem’s achievements, along with pledges to tackle pending tasks like reducing unemployment, poverty and crime, was ultimately forced to distance himself from Menem, due to the president’s intolerance of criticism – however subtle – from the governing party candidate.

But opposition to Menem no longer seemed credible, not only because Duhalde belonged to the president’s party, but also because he had served as vice-president until being elected governor in 1991 and later governed the province of Buenos Aires under Menem as president.

According to Gallup Argentina’s Carballo, “the campaign of the ruling party candidate is always more difficult, and especially so when the chief demand of voters is change.”

And change is what they should get Sunday, as analysts say De la Rúa will easily win with a wide enough margin – 45 percent, or at least 40 percent with a 10-point lead – to obviate the need for a second round of voting.