DEVELOPMENT: Cities Can Avert Earthquake Damage, Says UN

By Gustavo Capdevila Reprint | | Print |

Gustavo Capdevila

GENEVA, Dec 1 1999 (IPS) - Developing countries must raise awareness about earthquake risks and take action to prevent damage in urban areas when the disaster strikes, advises a research team organised by the United Nations (UN).

The Radius Initiative, a project that provides “risk assessment tools for diagnosing urban areas against seismic disaster,” also recommended training and consulting for the developing countries facing the greatest earthquake risks.

Radius experts affirmed they have the practical tools available for reducing the impact of earthquakes before the disaster strikes.

The world’s seismic activity in 1999 has been moderate despite a number of severe quakes, such as those occurring in Turkey, Greece and Taiwan, said Philippe Boullé, director of the Secretariat for the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR), a UN office launched by the Radius Initiative.

But in the first 90 years of this century, earthquakes have been one of nature’s most lethal and destructive forces, with total deaths estimated at 1.5 million people.

The temblors that hit Turkey, Greece and Taiwan “highlighted the importance of long term preventive actions to be taken to ensure that cities are earthquake resilient.”

The Radius Initiative, financed by the Japanese government, recently concluded a two-year study that produced comparative evaluations of the magnitude, causes and development trajectories of seismic risks in cities throughout the world.

Another goal of the study was to identify the cities that face similar risks. Radius is attempting to establish a forum where cities can share their earthquake-related experiences and impact reduction measures.

The research focused on nine cities: Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; Antofagasta, Chile; Bandung, Indonesia; Guayaquil, Ecuador; Izmir, Turkey; Skopje, Macedonia; Tashkent, Uzbekistan; Tijuana, Mexico; and Zigong, China.

The first phase of research consisted of seismic risk assessments for each of the cities, followed by establishing earthquake damage scenarios. The work concluded with risk management programmes and action plans.

Studying the cases of nine cities helped to raise public awareness, as the researchers activities were broadly disseminated by the local mass media.

The experts’ work also allowed the close collaboration of the scientific community with local authorities.

The practical tools of the Radius Initiative will be used in numerous cities to carry out similar projects for reducing earthquake damage.

Kenji Okazaki, project director, believes that if Radius is applied correctly, “it will help save lives and property.”

But the experts pointed out that Radius is only the first step in a long process, as reducing earthquake risk is a complicated undertaking.

Achieving the Radius goals of earthquake resilient cities will require decades because it is difficult to reinforce existing structures vulnerable to earthquakes, and even more so to move them to a different location.

For the nine cities in the study, seismic risks will continue growing unless immediate steps are taken to begin implementing safety measures, acknowledges the Radius Initiative final report, released last week in Geneva.

But the study has helped expand awareness among the communities, building support for land-use planning that conforms to earthquake standards, re-adapting existing buildings and, most importantly, promoting risk management.

“Despite the advances in the scientific field, so far we lack the necessary elements to predict earthquakes,” Boullé pointed out.

“In general terms, we estimate that in the next 50 years we will have the practical tools for decision-making in this area, for crisis management and early warning systems. But we may need more time,” he said.

Studies on seismic activity at the Anatolia fault in Turkey suggest there will be a major earthquake in the coming decades in the area surrounding the historic city of Istanbul.

But the earthquake could occur tomorrow, in three years, or in 30 or 40 years. We have no way to predict it, said the IDNDR director.

However, the UN can work with the Istanbul communities and other cities in the region to implement measures that “prevent and mitigate the worst consequences of earthquakes on people and poverty.”