SRI LANKA: Jaffna Crisis Won’t Dent President’s Popularity — Analysts

By Feizal Samath Reprint | | Print |

Analysis - Feizal Samath

COLOMBO, Jun 9 2000 (IPS) - Preoccupied with a bloody conflict with rebels in Sri Lanka’s northern region, President Chandrika Kumaratunga has little time to think of an upcoming national battle with political rivals.

There is no imminent end in sight to the contest between government troops and Tamil Tiger rebels for the control of northern Jaffna peninsula, in this Indian Ocean island nation. Initial stunning advances by the rebels were seen to have dented the government’s image with voters.

However, political analysts think that Kumaratunga’s People’s Alliance (PA) has the edge over its main rival in the upcoming parliament polls, notwithstanding the war crisis and unpopular price hikes of essential goods that have angered consumers.

The ongoing battle between government troops and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) rebels for the control of Jaffna peninsula moved closer to the national capital with the assassination of a senior government minister Wednesday in a bomb attack by suspected Tiger sympathisers near Colombo.

C.V. Gooneratne, minister for industrial development, was among 20 others killed when a suicide bomber some 15 km from the capital. The attack took place during a national government ceremony to honour soldiers killed in the nearly two-decade-old ethnic violence.

Sri Lankans will elect a new parliament sometime after August when the present house completes its tenure. Kumaratunga, in a media interview, denied that the election, due between August and November, would be put off because of the Jaffna crisis.

“She (Kumaratunga) has the edge. She could pull it off,” said Jehan Perera, media director of the National Peace Council (NPC) and a political commentator. He said the main opposition United National Party (UNP) had not been effective enough in mobilising the masses against the PA.

Kumaratunga was elected for a second six-year term in last December’s presidential poll. A UNP win at the parliament election would result in a PA president and a parliament led by the UNP, which most analysts think is unlikely to happen despite the PA’s unpopularity at the moment.

“The UNP is no better, otherwise it should have won the presidential poll,” noted an independent media commentator.

Ranil Wickremasinghe, the UNP chief, who challenged Kumaratunga in the presidential poll, is grappling with internal problems in the party. Several members have accused him of weak and ineffective leadership and criticised him for replacing key stalwarts in top party positions with his cronies.

Opposition parties are worried the government could use draconian emergency regulations, introduced last month, to either postpone national polls or make it difficult for parties to campaign.

Last month, Kumaratunga also clamped censorship on local and foreign media and banned political rallies, protests and trade union activity, citing the Jaffna crisis. The president said she was compelled to impose censorship due to the anti-national behaviour of a few television stations and newspapers.

“The government could resort to emergency measures to stall its opponents’ campaign. The PA, however, appears to have the edge because voters would prefer to look for strong leadership in times of crisis and may feel there shouldn’t be a division of power between the president and parliament,” argued Perera.

There were signs that the government was becoming confident about the situation in Jaffna. Last week, the government lifted the ban on political activity, then eased censorship on foreign journalists. However, the national press still had to operate within censor guidelines.

Both moves came amidst growing public confidence in the ability of government troops, bolstered by new weapons and renewed morale, to launch counter attacks against the Tigers.

However, the ruling alliance has reason for worry in the intense public anger against the sharp rise in gas, electricity and telephone prices this month, which followed a diesel price hike earlier this year.

Water rates are also set to rise in the next few weeks. Yielding to public pressure, the government Monday offered a subsidy on gas prices for low-income families.

However, a section of political observers think that Kumaratunga’s tactics, however unpopular, may have paid off.

When Tamil rebels launched the Jaffna offensive in April and captured two strategic army bases, the government was tottering. Kumaratunga was abroad for medical treatment with her ministers unsure how to handle the situation. Morale was low in the military.

On her return, Kumaratunga put the country on a war footing, dispatched new commanders to the north and gave more money to the military even as Colombo shopped abroad for new and more sophisticated weapons.

Kumaratunga is also trying to put back on track the peace process and wants to push through constitutional reforms in parliament by late June. She wants this to form the basis for a political solution to the 17-year-old ethnic crisis.

Tamil Tiger rebels are battling for a separate homeland for Sri Lanka’s minority Tamils, alleging discrimination by the majority Sinhala community.

However analysts believe a political solution to the conflict with or without the support of the rebels, is still a long way off, notwithstanding a multilateral mediation bid by Norway, India and the United States.

The government would prefer to hold peace talks with the Tigers only after the military has retaken at least some of the territory it lost in the north last month, they said.

Moreover, a constitutional reforms package, being worked out between the PA and the UNP during discussions that began in March, has been watered down so much that both moderate Tamils and the rebels are bound to reject it, said constitutional affairs expert Rohan Edrisinha.

“It is a dilution of the government’s October 1997 draft constitution,” noted Edrisinha, a director at the Centre for Policy Alternatives. The new proposals have diluted the sweeping autonomy provisions in Kumaratunga’s initial devolution package for the provinces, he pointed out.

“Several safety measures to protect provinces from powers being usurped by the centre are not there in the new proposals,” he said.

However, Sinhalese nationalists, who had opposed devolution of power to the north and the east where most of the Tamil community lives, have offered unconditional backing to the government’s war effort.

“She (Kumaratunga) is unlikely to push through reforms and alienate nationalists when she has their support right now,” analyst Perera said.