POLITICS-ROMANIA: Romania Set To Shift Left in Next Election

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Marian Chiriac

BUCHAREST, Nov 23 2000 (IPS) - Less than a week before a crucial general elections in Romania, eastern Europe’s economic laggard, local voters want to turn back the clock.

The elections, scheduled for Nov. 26, are a key test of whether Romania will gain quick entry into the European Union or relapse into the stagnation of the early post-communist years.

If recent opinion polls are any indicator, the disappointment of the country’s 22 million people over continued economic and social problem makes room for nostalgia over the security and certainties of the communist era.

More than a half of Romanians (51 percent) believe that their families lived better in the period before 1990, a poll carried out by the MetroMedia Transylvania Institute among adults shows. According to collected data, 81 percent of those questioned say they are not so happy about the way they live now, and only 17 percent are satisfied enough.

Latest official figures estimate 8.8 million Romanians live below the poverty line, earning less than 30 US dollars a month, compared to 1 million just after the 1989 fall of communism.

“My life is more difficult today,” says Alexandru Neagoe, a 52- year-old former technician in a state-run construction company. He has been jobless since March this year and picks up a monthly special benefit of about 100 dollars. “During the communist time I had a very comfortable and well paid job and the prices were stable for years,” Neagoe added.

The electorate’s nostalgia for the past is reflected in growing backing for former Communist politicians, contesting parliamentary and presidential elections next Sunday.

Ion Iliescu, the country’s president between 1990-1996 and a one- time Communist, has over 45 percent support according to public opinion polls, far more than other candidates. Iliescu, 70, was Romania’s first leader after the bloody revolution which ended communism on December 1989 by executing Nicolae Ceausescu and his wife by firing squad.

Likewise Iliescu’s opposition Social Democrats Party (PDSR), would get around 52 percent of the parliamentary vote. The parties from the present ruling coalition – the Liberals, the Democrats and the Christian Democrat- led alliance – would win together about 25 percent.

The elections are seen as marking an important change in Romania’s politics.

“For sure it will back the former communist system of a single, dominant party as – under the electoral law – PDSR could get 60 percent of Parliament’s seats,” said analyst Cristian Parvulescu. “It is not a very positive sign for the still very fragile democracy in Romania.”

Local observers also said the economy is key to the election. “Former communists are capitalising on frustration with growing hardships and inconsistent reforms. Three consecutive years of economic decline have dragged living standards lower, with purchasing power halved since 1990,” said economic analyst Ilie Serbanescu.

In 1996, most Romanians and also the West put their hopes on a centre-right coalition government to end the stagnation and to reform the democratic systems. But that government presided over a catastrophic economic collapse as inflation has soared above 40 percent and the economy shrank 16 percent before recovering a bit this year.

Romania’s infrastructure disintegrated, while hoped-for foreign investment failed to materialise. Amidst the mounting disaster, the coalition partners responded by bickering endlessly.

A European Commission report presented early this month also showed that “Romania cannot be regarded as a functioning market economy and is not able to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the European Union in the medium term”.

The report bluntly put Romania at the bottom of countries negotiating EU entry. Last February, at a Helsinku summit, Romania was one of the six new countries admitted to EU membership talks.

The European Union expects from the government that will be installed in Romania after this week’s general elections to achieve, clear and tangible progress in the reform process within its first 100 days in office. “We would like to see the privatisation process being accelerated,” Fokion Fotiadis, head of the EU’s delegation in Romania said.

In response to that, former President Ion Iliescu said: “We cannot be expected to do in a few months what the present coalition government has failed to do in four years, or what has not been done over 10 years”.

Acknowledgement that European Union membership could be years off has prompted some local observers to worry that Romania could start to look East once again, to its former ally Russia, with which Iliescu maintained links during his tenure.

Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov recently visited Bucharest to discuss diplomatic and economic ties, especially in the transport and energy sectors. Surprisingly enough, an official from the Russian Embassy in Bucharest last week made a public statement saying that “Moscow appreciates the PDSR’s willingness to develop better ties with Russia”.

But PDSR’s leaders say anyone who thinks the past is the road to the future is out of step with reality.

“Our party’s main objectives are European integration and NATO and we have to do it. We cannot afford to miss the train of joining West,” said Adrian Nastase, a former foreign minister tipped to become prime minister if, as the polls suggest, PDSR wins Sunday’s elections.