POLITICS: Japan Does Balancing Act on U.S. Plans to Attack Iraq

By Suvendrini Kakuchi Reprint | | Print |

Suvendrini Kakuchi

TOKYO, Sep 4 2002 (IPS) - Japan, a long-time American ally, is trying to make its cautious way across the political minefield that is its hesitance in backing a U.S. invasion on Iraq, Washington’s next target in its expanding ‘war on terrorism’.

In a supposed show of solidarity, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is scheduled to visit Washington next week to spend time with U.S. President George W Bush, during memorial services the U.S. government is holding for the anniversary of the Sep. 11 attacks.

But the signs are that this is about the most Japan is willing to do at this time.

“Japan is walking a terribly tight tightrope when it comes to taking a decision on lending its support to the U.S. strike against Iraq,” explains Professor Takeshi Inoguchi, an international relations expert at the University of Tokyo.

While Japan was criticised for what some called its less than full support for the U.S.-led coalition in the 1991 Gulf War — despite its giving 11 billion dollars to the war effort — this time the Japanese do not seem to be too worried about getting negative feedback.

Koizumi has not pronounced Tokyo’s position thus far. But opinion polls and statements from politicians show that the Japanese are not entirely sold on a planned U.S. attack on Iraq to unseat President Saddam Hussein.

Many politicians share the apprehension about unilateral U.S. action by governments like Germany and France – and on Tuesday, South African statesman Nelson Mandela said that such an attack on an independent nation, without U.N. involvement, would be “appalling”.

On Wednesday, the ‘Asahi Shimbun’ newspaper reported that 77 percent of Japanese it polled in a telephone survey opposed a U.S. military attack against Iraq, and 14 percent said they favoured it.

This marks a shift in attitudes toward the United States and its ‘war on terrorism’ in the last year, and reflects views different from Japanese support of the military action against Afghanistan last year and in the 1991 Gulf War.

“Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has not taken a clear stand on what Japan would do should the United States take on Iraq, but the poll seems to indicate the Japanese public has already made up its mind,” the newspaper said on Wednesday.

Asked if Japan should cooperate with the United States should it begin an assault on Baghdad, 69 percent of those polled in the ‘Asahi’ survey said Tokyo should not do so, while 20 percent said it should.

Inoguchi says that Japan’s hesitance to give all-out support for U.S. plans for Iraq reflect a change in Japanese perceptions of the country’s place in international relations and its ties with countries like the United States, for instance.

On Iraq, he says, Japan is caught between two factors: the attraction of supporting the United States as a counterweight to rival China’s rising power, and the pulse of an increasingly sceptical public that does not want Japan to slavishly follow Washington as it has usually done for the last five decades.

One of the clearest signs of Japan’s reluctance is a Tuesday statement by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), soon after a visit by U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage in late August to urge Tokyo to support the Bush administration in the event it decides to attack Iraq.

But in the statement, LDP spokesman Takuji Yamazaki asks for “proof from the international community the existence of the Hussein administration is evil” and goes into the negative effects of supporting unilateral military action against Iraq, apart from its potential for stoking anti-U.S. feelings.

Yamazaki concludes by saying that Japan has no choice but to side with other governments that have expressed its misgivings against a U.S. attack on Iraq.

He also says that Japan’s support for Washington can only be within the range of its anti-terrorist law, passed after Sep.11 by the Koizumi administration. The law, while unprecedented, does not pave the way for Japan to send troops to fight alongside the U.S. military but allows other logistical support such as refuelling of U.S. ships.

Any escalation of military support to this level would need a new law, some politicians say, but one that will be difficult to achieve in a country that has a strong pacifist base after World War II.

In short, how Japan pronounces itself on U.S. action against Iraq will be a crucial test of ties between the countries that call themselves each other’s closest ally in the Asia-Pacific.

“The dilemma is probably the worst facing the Koizumi administration,” opines Professor Ruyji Tateyama of the Japan Defence Academy.

Apart from questions about the strength of the U.S. case against Iraq and about evidence linking Iraq to the Sep. 11 attacks, Professor Masayuki Yamauchi of the University of Tokyo adds that there is no proof that an invasion can establish democracy in the Middle East as easily as the “neoimperialists” seem to think.

Instead of military action, Yamauchi, an advisor to the government, calls for “soft power” that the professor believes can bring about change in Middle Eastern countries where there are little democratic institutions and processes in place.

The ‘Asahi’ poll reported on Wednesday also pointed to the contrast between public opinion this time and that during past U.S.-led military actions.

An October 2001 poll showed that 46 percent of voters supported the attack on Afghanistan that started during that month, and 43 percent opposed it. In a February 1991 poll, just after the start of the Gulf War after Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, 51 percent of Japanese supported the attack on Iraq and 35 percent were opposed to it.

Japan has other domestic considerations on the Iraq issue.

Yukio Okamoto, head of Koizumi’s advisory panel, says Japan’s energy supplies may well be disrupted by instability in the Middle East after it supports Washington in its action against Iraq. More than 85 percent of Japan’s oil needs come from the region.

Tateyama argues that in truth, Japan is unlikely to win major diplomatic points any which way it goes on the Iraq question. If it cannot provide military support to the United States, Japan, the world’s biggest aid donor, would have to respond by giving funds – and this would still earn Tokyo criticism.

“The public will be against extending financial resources given the poor Japanese economy,” Tateyama explains.