ELECTIONS-BRAZIL: Leftist Lula Remains a Step Away from Presidency

By Mario Osava Reprint | | Print |

Mario Osava

RIO DE JANEIRO, Oct 7 2002 (IPS) - Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva easily won Sunday’s presidential elections in Brazil, but failed to garner the majority needed to avoid a run-off vote, slated for Oct 27, in nationwide balloting that was bogged down by voters’ problems with a computerised ballot.

With around 47 percent of the vote, Lula will face José Serra, 60, candidate of the Fernando Henrique Cardoso government and of the “Grand Alliance” between the Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB) and the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB), two of the country’s leading political forces.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva easily won Sunday’s presidential elections in Brazil, but failed to garner the majority needed to avoid a run-off vote, slated for Oct 27, in nationwide balloting that was bogged down by voters’ problems with a computerised ballot.

Lula, 57, leader of the leftist Workers Party (PT) and a former metalworker, gave his rivals a run for their money with his Lula President coalition that includes the right-leaning Liberal Party, and its José Alencar, textile mogul, as his vice-presidential candidate.

With around 47 percent of the vote, Lula will face José Serra, 60, candidate of the Fernando Henrique Cardoso government and of the “Grand Alliance” between the Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB) and the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB), two of the country’s leading political forces.

Serra polled at nearly a quarter of the valid votes cast for president Sunday.

Brazil’s Electoral Tribunal was scheduled to announce the official results at midnight Sunday (3:00 GMT Monday), but delays involving the computerised ballot ruined those plans.

The Electoral Tribunal, which regulates the voting process, reported that less than one percent of the 406,000 electronic ballot boxes used across the country presented defects. But in at least 110 voting stations it was necessary to use the traditional manual balloting method.

Even with the second round presidential elections, Lula is considered the favourite. The electoral support of the PT is more consolidated than that of the other parties, say political analysts.

Most of the people who cast their ballots for leftists Ciro Gomes or Anthony Garotinho, two candidates who won an important portion of the vote (around 13 and 17 percent, respectively) but not enough to beat Serra, are more likely to support Lula.

Lula’s candidacy also received a boost from two former presidents José Sarney (1985-1990) and Itamar Franco (1992-1994), both of the PMDB, who threw their support behind the metalworker-turned-politician.

Furthermore, general support for the PT increased in the final days of the campaign, as evidenced in several local races, such as the governorship of Sao Paulo, Brazil’s most populous and wealthiest state. The PT’s José Genoina defied all predictions and will face current governor Geraldo Alckmin in the run-off vote.

Economist Aloizio Mercadante, PT candidate for the Senate representing Sao Paulo, also saw greater than expected support. The rise of the PT in Sao Paulo state is decisive for Lula’s chances on Oct 27 as it is home to nearly 20 percent of the national electorate.

But the run-off vote “is a different election”, say analysts. José Pimenta da Veiga, former communications minister and director of Serra’s campaign, believes it is possible to erase the 20-million-vote advantage Lula had Sunday in the three weeks before the second round.

The debate now will be between just two candidates, and the best one will be able to alter the situation, says Da Veiga.

Meanwhile, in economic and financial circles, it is being assumed that Lula will be Brazil’s president as of Jan 1, the day that Cardoso ends his second four-year term.

It will be up to him to prevent Brazil’s financial collapse under pressures of economic crises throughout Latin America, but the major challenge in the next four years will be to reduce the country’s profound social inequalities and poverty.

Brazil is among the countries with the biggest gap between rich and poor, to the extent that sociologists often use the term “Brazilianisation” to describe processes in other countries in which the poor distribution of wealth continues to worsen.

The demand for solutions will be especially burdensome for Lula, as he is seen as the standard-bearer of movements that have historically been involved in social justice issues.

The gap between rich and poor in this giant South American nation – home to more than 160 million people – is seen as the result of a series of economic crises over the last 20 years.

Inequalities, impunity and the ease of obtaining weapons are blamed as the main causes of the rise in violence that costs Brazil 1.9 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) in medical treatment for its victims, says a World Health Organisation report released Thursday.

The percentage of people without enough income to pay for their basic necessities was reduced by the implementation in 1994 of Plan Real, which put an end to three decades of high inflation, though it has begun an upwards climb again in the last three years.

In 1993, 41.7 percent of the population lived in such a situation, falling to 32.7 percent in 1998. But last year, 33.6 percent could not meet their basic necessities on their income, reflecting the turning point in 1999, when the financial crisis caused a sharp depreciation of the national currency, the real.

In 2001, 58 million people earned less than they needed to ensure a minimally decent standard of living, and of them, at least 22 percent lacked sufficient income to maintain adequate nutrition.

Brazil suffers greater income disparity than Mexico and much more than Argentina, and poverty here is not a problem of wealth, but rather of its distribution, according to researchers.