ENVIRONMENT: Poor to Suffer Most from any Future Water Crisis

By Jim Lobe Reprint | | Print |

Jim Lobe

WASHINGTON, Oct 16 2002 (IPS) - Unless governments intensify efforts to conserve global water supplies, the world may face a major crisis over the next 25 years that could send food prices far out of the reach of millions of poor people in developing countries, says a report released Wednesday to coincide with World Food Day.

A ”business-as-usual” approach to the problem could mean the annual loss of 350 million metric tonnes of food production by 2025, slightly more than the entire U.S. grain crop, much of which is currently exported to needy countries, says the report, ‘Global Water Outlook to 2025: Averting an Impending Crisis’.

Under a more-pessimistic scenario, which maintains current negative trends – such as falling investment in operating and maintaining existing water systems – key aquifers in China, India, West Asia and North Africa could fail.

Global prices for basic food commodities, such as wheat, maize and rice, could then almost double compared to the ”business as usual” scenario.

”Unless we change policies and priorities, in 20 years there won’t be enough water for cities, households, the environment, or growing food,” said Mark Rosegrant, lead author of the report and senior research fellow at the Washington-based International Food Policy Research Institution (IFPRI).

”Water is not like oil: there is no substitute. If we continue to take it for granted, much of the earth is going to run short of water or food – or both,” he added. In either case, the poor will suffer most, Rosegrant said.

The report details the results of complex computer projections based on possible changes in policies affecting water usage, efficiency and allocation through 2025. The model did not address the possible impact of global warming or other climate-related factors that could affect the supply of water in specific regions.

The report was published by IFPRI and the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) both of which belong to a larger network of national and international agricultural research centres funded by the World Bank and other major donors.

Its central message is that the world needs to adopt more forward-looking policies to maximise crop yields, conserve water, and allocate and price it in ways that ensure that the water and sanitation needs of poor people are met.

”Making affluent people pay for water would encourage them to conserve,” said Peter Hazell, director of environment and production technology at IFPRI. ”It would also free up financial resources to provide clean, safe water to poor people.”

The report also calls for increased investment in crop research and in rural infrastructure to boost water productivity and improve crop yields via rain-fed farming, which is expected to account for one-half of the increase in food production between 1995 and 2025.

Global water use for households, industry, and agriculture is likely to rise by at least 50 percent over the next 20 years, due in part to rapid population growth and urbanisation in developing countries, adds the report.

Increased competition for water will severely limit its availability for irrigation. That will in turn seriously constrain global food production, causing higher food prices and large increases in malnutrition, since many poor people in developing countries already spend more than half of their income on food.

”For hundreds of millions of poor farmers in developing countries, a lack of access to water for growing food is the most important constraint they face,” said Frank Rijsberman, director general of IWMI.

He warned that growth rates for crop yields – already down from highs achieved as a result of the ”Green Revolution” – could fall even further because of water scarcity.

The report cites three scenarios based on different underlying assumptions.

Under business-as-usual, current trends in water and food policy, management and investment will continue. Increased food production will depend primarily on increases in yield, although growth in crop yields will fall due to declining government support for agricultural research, rural infrastructure, irrigation and reservoirs.

While governments will continue to transfer management of irrigation systems to farmer organisations and water user associations, water use efficiency will not improve in many places due to a lack of incentives.

Meanwhile, farmers will expand their pumping of groundwater, and, in some of the drier parts of the world, pumping will exceed the rate at which aquifers can recharge.

Finally, the share of water devoted to environmental uses, such as maintaining wetlands that retain and purify water during dry periods or conserving forests that reduce erosion and recharge groundwater, will not increase, while the costs of supplying water for household and industrial purposes will rise sharply.

The resulting water scarcity will cause substantial shifts in where the world’s food is grown.

Poor countries will likely see a sharp rise in their reliance on food imports, as much as three times in the case of sub-Saharan Africa. Unable to finance those imports, many African and other poor countries will see increased hunger and malnutrition, the report said.

It would take only a moderate worsening in global water policy to bring about a genuine water crisis, it predicted.

Under that scenario, global grain production would drop by 10 percent below business-as-usual levels – or the equivalent of India’s total annual grain output – due to various reasons: governments’ failure to invest in building dams and reservoirs, and to maintain irrigation systems; the loss of key aquifers in Eurasia and North Africa due to over-pumping, and rising international or internal conflicts over water.

In the crisis scenario, the price of rice would increase by 40 percent, wheat by 80 percent, and maize by 120 percent, meaning that subsistence would be beyond the means of tens of millions of people.

Under a ”sustainable water scenario”, on the other hand, global water consumption would be 20 percent less than ”business-as-usual” levels, water for environmental purposes would increase sharply; global rain-fed crop yields would increase by seven percent over business-as-usual, and grain prices would decline slowly.

That scenario is dependent on certain factors: agricultural water prices doubling in developed countries and tripling in developing ones; increasing prices for household water in order to reduce waste and extend piped water to previously unconnected households; strictly enforcing regulations regarding pumping of groundwater, and transferring responsibility for operating and managing irrigation systems to community groups.

”A crisis is not inevitable,” said Rosegrant. ”The world can both consume less water and reap greater benefits. But to achieve them, we must act now. The required strategies take not only money and political will, but time as well.”

ENVIRONMENT: Poor to Suffer Most from any Future Water Crisis

By Jim Lobe Reprint | | Print |

Jim Lobe

WASHINGTON, Oct 16 2002 (IPS) - Unless governments intensify efforts to conserve global water supplies, the world may face a major crisis over the next 25 years that could send food prices far out of the reach of millions of poor people in developing countries, says a report released Wednesday to coincide with World Food Day.
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