POLITICS-BOSNIA: Ethnic Parties Lead the Way

By Vesna Peric Zimonjic Reprint | | Print |

Vesna Peric Zimonjic

BANJALUKA, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Oct 7 2002 (IPS) - Parties that push separate identities are headed for victory in the general elections in Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Parties representing Serb, Croat and Muslim nationalism within Bosnia-Herzegovina are getting the largest votes in the hugely complicated elections held Saturday.

"Voters in Bosnia-Herzegovina showed a clear shift to the right," analyst Zoran Zuza said as results came in Sunday.

The victory of these parties can threaten badly needed reforms in the devastated country, analysts say.

The turnout was 54.6 per cent in a total of 2.3 million voters. This was the lowest turnout since 1992-95 when Bosnian Muslims, Serbs and Croats took to bloody war among themselves that left more than 200,000 dead. It was the biggest bloodshed in Europe since World War II.

The war in Bosnia ended with the Dayton peace accords sponsored by the U.S. These defined Bosnia-Herzegovina as a federal state comprising two entities – the Muslim-Croat Federation and the Serb-run Republika Srpska (RS).

The election Saturday was hugely complicated. People voted for a start to elect three joint presidents, one each representing the Serbs, the Croats and the Muslims. The three presidents are rotated in six-month terms.

There was a vote for a federal parliament for all of Bosnia, and for the separate parliaments of the two entities – RS and the Muslim-Croat Federation. Additionally, voters in RS voted to choose their own president. The president of the Muslim-Croat federation was chosen earlier. Presidential posts in these two entities are largely ceremonial.

The lists of candidates contained more than 7,000 names for the parliaments and 35 names for the collective presidency of three. There were 7,000 domestic and 500 foreign observers at the elections.

These were the fourth general elections in Bosnia since 1995 but the first to elect officials for a four-year term. Representatives were voted in earlier for two-year terms. These were also the first elections organised by Bosnians themselves. Previous elections were organised by the United Nations led Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).

Unofficial results Sunday showed that with more than 50 per cent of votes counted, Serbs, Croats and Muslims all voted strongly for the parties that represent their nationalist sentiments – the parties that had led them earlier to war.

For the three members of the collective presidency, Muslim voters are split between Sulejman Tihic of the Party for Democratic Action (SDA) and Haris Silajdzic of the Alliance for Bosnia-Herzegovina. More than 45 per cent of Serb votes have gone to Mirko Sarovic from the Serbian Democratic Party (SDS), while Croats overwhelmingly voted for Dragan Covic from the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ).

These are the parties that were in the forefront of the Bosnian war. But the parties now have a different leadership.

These parties have gained the largest number of votes also for the federal parliament and for the Serb parliament and the Croat-Muslim parliament. In RS, the SDS candidate Dragan Cavic has won 47 per cent of the vote for the post of president.

"Voters had an astonishing list of 57 parties and nine coalitions before them," says Sarajevo analyst Emir Habul. "With such results the situation is unpredictable. Some unbelievable combinations and coalitions may appear after the elections."

The final results are not due until October 22, as thousands of votes from Bosnian citizens in exile are still coming in.

"It might take weeks after that (October 22) before the coalitions can be hammered out," Zlatko Lagumdzija, foreign minister of the central Bosnian government said Sunday.

The international community which has played guardian of Bosnia-Herzegovina over the past seven years has developed mechanisms to prevent a rule by any one group at any level in the country. The internationally sponsored constitution means that although RS elects its president, a Croat and a Muslim have to be the two vice-presidents. At least 35 per cent of its members must come from non-Serb communities. Serbs would have a similar position in the government of the Muslim-Croat federation.

Overseeing it all is the internationally appointed High Representative for Bosnia with power to impose laws and fire politicians. If the three groupings cannot produce a credible government among themselves, the High Representative can direct who shall form government. The post is currently held by Paddy Ashdown, former leader of the Liberal Democrats in Britain.

"All these factors indicate that moderate political trends will continue in Bosnia, although implementation of the election results and making of coalitions and alliances may be slow and complicated," says analyst Senad Slatina.

The political changes have not significantly improved the quality of life. Some five billion dollars in aid have been sent to Bosnia since 1995. Much of the money has gone into social, health and education funds, but there has been considerable corruption, analysts say. Very little of the money has been used in investments.

Bosnians, whether they are Muslims, Croats or Serbs live on less than 200 dollars a month on average. Unemployment is 40 per cent.

POLITICS-BOSNIA: Ethnic Parties Lead the Way

By Vesna Peric Zimonjic Reprint | | Print |

Vesna Peric Zimonjic

BANJALUKA, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Oct 7 2002 (IPS) - Parties that push separate identities are headed for victory in the general elections in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
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