POLITICS-ISRAEL: Arab Vote Could Make a Difference

By Cam McGrath Reprint | | Print |

Cam McGrath

CAIRO, Dec 15 2002 (IPS) - The upcoming Israeli elections offer the most significant chance yet for peace between Israel and the Palestinians in nearly a decade, but only if the peace camp and Arab voters turn out in strength, Arab commentators say.

Hawkish Likud party head Ariel Sharon will face the dovish Labour leader Amram Mitzna January 28. The showdown will decide whether Israel continues on the path of violence or risks the tortuous road to peace, many Arab commentators say.

"Sharon will continue to enjoy his amazing popularity as long as Palestinian suicide bombers continue to strike fear in the hearts of the Israeli populace," Egyptian columnist Mohammed Sid Ahmed said in a recent editorial. Sharon has garnered public support for his hard-line approach by linking Israel’s economic troubles to security issues, commentators say.

Incumbent Prime Minister Sharon is expected to win, but with 50 per cent of the electorate still undecided, it is too early to count Mitzna out.

"While the far right can rely on the settlers and soldiers for support, this can be offset by the Arab vote," says Fahed Fanek, a Jordanian economist and media expert.

Some 500,000 Israeli Arabs eligible to vote represent nearly 13 per cent of the electorate. Russian immigrants make up another 18 per cent. Both groups are traditionally pro-Labour and if mobilised, could help swing the vote in Mitzna’s favour.

Arabs boycotted the Israeli elections that brought Sharon into power in early 2001, but are unlikely to do so this time round. Palestinian leaders support Mitzna and are reportedly working to encourage a high Arab turn-out.

"Mitzna’s programme encourages us to be ready for a comprehensive peace deal with Labour, which will restore regional security and coexistence," Palestinian leader Ahmed Abdul Rahman told reporters. "Israelis need security and we need dignity and freedom."

The Labour party is campaigning to assure disillusioned Israeli Arab voters that Mitzna is worth their vote. Many support his peace initiative, but question his ability to implement his policies even if he manages to pull off an election day upset.

Mitzna, a newcomer to the national political scene, has pledged to revive the peace process. The 57-year-old mayor of Haifa says that if elected, he would immediately withdraw all Israeli troops from Gaza and dismantle settlements in Gaza and the West Bank. He would resume negotiations with the Palestinian leadership from where they left off and even consider dividing Jerusalem between Israel and a Palestinian state.

"Mitzna believes that peace comes at a price and he is ready to pay that price," says Sid Ahmed.

The Labour party leader is offering the most daring gamble for peace since the Oslo Accord of 1993. Mitzna says he would try for a year to reach an agreement. If this fails, he would support ‘unilateral separation’, which means completion of a fence that seals off the West Bank from Israel. Parts of the fence are already in place as a part of a similar initiative launched by Sharon earlier this year.

"Mitzna is certainly not just another Sharon in disguise," Hassan Nafaa, dean of the political sciences department at Cairo University told IPS. "His stand vis-à-vis the peace process differs sharply from Sharon’s stand, but the election of Mitzna as leader of the Labour party does not necessarily mean that his stand on the peace process will prevail within his own party."

Labour recently pulled out of the national unity government, and the experience has all but dismantled its peace camp. Putting it back together in time for elections will be difficult.

Jordanian political analyst Muna Shuqair summed up Labour’s dilemma in a commentary for Lebanon’s Daily Star newspaper. "In order to compete with Likud, Labour will have to adopt more hard-line positions to win support from an increasingly hawkish Israeli electorate," says Shuqair. "And herein lies its dilemma. By trying to emulate Likud, Labour will only succeed in becoming a pale imitation of the real thing."

But Mitzna could influence Israeli politics even if he fails to defeat Sharon. The Labour party could either join a national unity government headed by Likud and attempt to soften the right-wing views of the government, or regroup on the sidelines at the risk of giving right-wing extremist groups an influential role.

"It will be very difficult for Mitzna to participate in a national unity government because his views are so different," says Sherif el-Musa, director of Middle East Studies at the American University in Cairo. "He’s trying to strike a clear alternative."

POLITICS-ISRAEL: Arab Vote Could Make a Difference

By Cam McGrath Reprint | | Print |

Cam McGrath

CAIRO, Dec 15 2002 (IPS) - The upcoming Israeli elections offer the most significant chance yet for peace between Israel and the Palestinians in nearly a decade, but only if the peace camp and Arab voters turn out in strength, Arab commentators say.
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