POLITICS-CHINA: Proactiveness on Korea Reflects Security Worries

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Analysis - By Antoaneta Bezlova

BEIJING, Apr 7 2003 (IPS) - China’s new proactiveness in urging Pyongyang to go to the multilateral negotiating table reflects its growing security concerns worries about possible U.S. recklessness in handling the North Korean nuclear crisis, and alarm over military resurgence from neighbouring Japan.

China has grown increasingly irritated with its long-time Communist ally.

North Korea became the first country to pull out of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty earlier this year. It kicked out the International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors and shut down U.N. surveillance cameras at its Yongbyon nuclear facilities, which are capable of producing plutonium for nuclear bombs.

If North Korea declares itself a nuclear power it admitted to having a secret nuclear weapons enrichment programme in October – China is worried that threat in the region could then lead to a military arms race, including by Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Beijing considers Taiwan a renegade province.

Already, Beijing is fretting over growing public debate in Japan on how to upgrade its self-defence forces to suit the country’s pacifist constitution.

China is also genuinely concerned that after the bombs stop falling in Baghdad, Washington will turn its attention toward North Korea, which U.S. President George W Bush has included in his ‘axis of evil’ along with Iraq and Iran.

Already, a spokesman for North Korea’s foreign ministry said Sunday: ”The United States is seriously mistaken if it thinks the DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) will accept the demand for disarming while watching one of the three countries the U.S. listed as part of an ‘axis of evil’ already subject to the barbarous military attack.”

Among Beijing’s many fears is the possibility that Pyongyang’s belligerent behaviour might lead to U.S. military moves against the Yongbyon nuclear reactor – even though Washington continues to claim that Iraq is not North Korea, and that each requires very different solutions.

The Bush administration has refused Pyongyang’s demand for bilateral talks, which it argued would reward North Korea for its nuclear brinkmanship. Pyongyang, for its part, has rejected a multilateral forum, which Washington says would reflect the fact that the crisis is as much a regional issue as a bilateral one.

As the U.N. Security Council is scheduled to meet in Apr. 9 for an initial round of discussions on the North Korean issue, Pyongyang insisted on the weekend that any action taken by the Council would be ignored by the regime.

Drawing parallels between the Iraq situation and its own, the foreign ministry spokesman in Pyongyang, which the state-run Korean Central News Agency did not name, said: ”The UNSC (Security Council’s) handling of the nuclear issue on the peninsula itself is precisely a prelude to war. The UNSC’s discussion of the Iraqi issue was misused by the U.S. as an excuse for war.”

The U.N. Security Council has the power to punish nations for violating international anti-proliferation treaties. For example, it could impose economic sanctions on Pyongyang. But North Korea has previously warned that any sanctions imposed by the United Nations would be considered a ”declaration of war".

Fearing that any U.N. sanctions might further isolate the Stalinist regime and push the peninsula to the brink of war, China has until now resisted a council meeting. Last week, however, the Chinese ambassador to the United Nations said Beijing had agreed to hold initial consultations on the issue.

"We hope that we could have good coordination so hopefully we could accomplish something," Chinese ambassador Wang Yingfan said.

While Beijing may stick to its long-time opposition to economic sanctions, indications are emerging that China is also stepping up pressure on North Korea. Australia s Foreign minister Alexander Downer said last week China was now making a substantial effort to persuade North Korea to accept a U.S. demand for multi-nation regional talks.

Speaking from Washington where he met U.S. President George Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney during a two-day visit, Downer provided a rare hint of behind-the-scenes diplomatic negotiations between major players on the issue in order to find a suitable security framework.

"There does seem to be now a clear sign that China is making a substantial effort to persuade the North Koreans, first of all to engage in multilateral dialogue and secondly to exercise a greater degree of restraint," Downer said.

A series of developments over the last few weeks indicate that Beijing is trying to build pressure on Pyongyang to stop the escalation of nuclear tension on the Korean peninsula and to seriously engage in a dialogue.

According to diplomatic sources, Chinese officials, including Vice Foreign Minister Wang Yi, have been holding meetings with North Korean counterparts, trying to persuade Pyongyang in earnest to stop provoking the United States.

The message emphasised is that if Pyongyang did not curtail its provocative behaviour, China might be forced to drop its longstanding opposition to sanctions if North Korea’s nuclear development programme formally comes to the U.N. Security Council.

While the threat of sanctions was only hinted at, Beijing made a point of its seriousness by cutting off oil supplies to North Korean for three days last month.

Diplomats say the oil pipeline from the Daqing oilfields in north-eastern China to North Korea was temporarily shut down in early March, shortly after Pyongyang test-fired a missile into waters between the Korean peninsula and Japan.

Such punishment on Beijing’s side has been long urged by Washington, and China has been increasingly criticised for continuing oil and food supplies despite then President Jiang Zemin’s discussions with Bush last year.

China is North Korea’s main source of fuel, exporting an estimated 1 million tonnes of oil each year to Pyongyang. Any halt in supplies would be a severe blow to the Stalinist country, where energy and food shortages have left the population on the brink of a humanitarian disaster.

Beijing cited "technical" problems for the oil cut-off, but it also served as a warning to Pyongyang in destabilising regional security.