MIDEAST: More Politics than Peace in Powell Visit

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Analysis by Ferry Biedermann

JERUSALEM, May 12 2003 (IPS) - U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell had not quite left Israel Monday before Israel reversed some of the ‘goodwill gestures’ towards Palestinians that it took up on his arrival over the weekend.

Nothing could be more symbolic of the total lack of progress that once again marked a visit by a high-ranking U.S. leader.

This should have been Powell’s big visit where he would use the recent U..S. success on a Middle East battlefield to push both sides towards peace. The plan he took with him had been months in the making – the so-called ‘roadmap’ drawn up ostensibly by the quartet of Middle East mediators, the U.S., the UN (United Nations), the EU (European Union) and Russia, but which reflects mostly the thinking in Washington.

Powell failed to secure any progress on the roadmap. The question is whether he tried very hard. This trip always looked like a move more to placate U.S.. allies than a crack at peace-making.

There are too many factors conspiring against peace. First, this Israeli government is not likely to make the concessions everybody agrees are needed. The Palestinians are divided, and unwilling to do their part in stopping the violence. The international community is not united in its approach. And President George Bush will soon have to start his re-election campaign.

The roadmap itself is deeply flawed; it offers no firm indication of the final deal. But Powell failed to get the parties moving even on minimal concessions required from both sides in the initial phase. The Palestinians are not fighting terror, and the Israelis are not making life easier in the occupied territories.

The Palestinians say they accept the plan in principle, something Israel has not said. But the Palestinians are not acting on it.

One of the requirements of the roadmap was the creation of a powerful post of prime minister to take over some of the powers of Palestinian Authority chairman Yasser Arafat. The post of Prime Minister has been filled, but it is surrounded by question marks.

New Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen, may have no more than a tenuous grasp on power. He was the choice of the Fatah leadership, but since his appointment he has lost crucial support within Fatah and on the street.

Arafat loyalists within Fatah organised a general strike in Ramallah Sunday in protest against Abbas’s meeting with Powell in Jericho. Protesters burnt pictures of Abbas. They objected to Powell’s refusal to meet Arafat.

Analysts in the Palestinian territories say Arafat’s lieutenants have succeeded in fanning popular mistrust of Abbas. He is seen as a tool of the Israelis and the U.S.

Both Israel and the U.S. want Abbas to succeed. Powell promised the Palestinian Authority 50 million dollars to repair damaged infrastructure and to improve life in the territories. This was a clear attempt to prop up Abbas, but much more is needed. Israel will need to lift restrictions and withdraw from the cities.

But Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon made it clear during Powell’s visit that they will not lift restrictions as long as in their view the PA does not fight terror. Powell accepted that, and said the PA’s ability to prevent terrorist attacks was the "key" to political progress.

Militant groups have shown no inclination to accept PA demands for a cease- fire. They have made huge gains in popularity since the beginning of the intifada, and they are not about to let that slip away.

An agreement would not in any case be acceptable to the Israelis, who want the PA to fight terror, not make deals with it. To many Palestinian leaders, fighting militant groups would mean a Palestinian civil war.

The ‘roadmap’ will be discussed again when Sharon meets Bush in Washington next week. But most people in the region see this as a roadmap to nowhere.