POLITICS-MIDEAST: Hard Spotlight On New PM

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Analysis by Daoud Kuttab

RAMALLAH, May 14 2003 (IPS) - The recent vote of support by the Palestinian Legislative Council for the government of Mahmoud Abbas is much more than a vote of confidence in one man. The decision ushers in the constitutional creation of the position of an empowered prime minister accountable to the Palestinian Legislative Council.

Many Palestinian reformers see this power-sharing process as a small internal revolution. The mechanism for reform embedded in this new phase has not been lost on Palestinian business people and the average man and woman on the street.

Khalil Shikaki, who heads a Palestinian think-tank has for a couple of years been advocating the need for the creation of such an office as a way of widening Palestinian power sharing. In articles published locally and internationally, Shikaki has argued effectively that in an Arab world that has been dominated by single autocratic leaders, an empowered prime minister can bring major democratic change.

But while creating the office of prime minister is important for reform and democracy, for the man who becomes the very first Palestinian prime minister, Mahmoud Abbas, this will not be an easy time. He comes in at a time of extremely high Palestinian expectations which follow a host of U.S. and European promises for a better Palestinian future leading to an independent state by 2005.

Abbas, who is a long time partner of Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat, and Arafat’s handpicked deputy, will have to deal with a number of difficult challenges. He will have to deal with Palestinian militants, with an intransigent Israeli government and will also have to make sure that he keeps Arafat happy.

On the internal Palestinian issue, Abbas will depend on his finance minister Salam Fayyad to streamline the Palestinian economy, fight corruption and restore the confidence of Palestinian expatriates to invest in Palestine.

On the security front, Abbas will try to reduce violent acts against Israelis by reaching an internal agreement with the leaders of militant groups. With the help of Egyptians, a dialogue has taken place during the past year with the aim of achieving a unilateral ceasefire agreement for a limited period.

In order to reach that difficult goal, Abbas will need to use all his political capital and more. Mahmoud Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen, is a member of two of the highest Palestinian decision-making bodies.

He is a member of the central committee of the ruling Palestinian movement, Fatah. He is also a member of the executive committee of the PLO (Palestine Liberation Organisation). Yet these high-level positions have done little to enhance his popularity.

The latest opinion polls show Abbas in low single digits. He has done little to improve his image in the Palestinian street. He rarely gives interviews, and is rarely seen in public.

Abu Mazen is not expected to launch a public media blitz but his close advisors say he plans to improve his presence in the local Palestinian media as well as the Israeli media.

The fact that Abu Mazen acts more and more like a civil servant than a charismatic leader must be bad news to many in Israel and the U.S. The administrations of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and U.S. President George Bush who have led an international effort to discredit Yasser Arafat have been hoping that Abu Mazen would replace Arafat as the leader of the Palestinian people.

Political analysts are also warning U.S. and Israeli leaders against falling into the trap of considering a vote of confidence in the new government of Mahmoud Abbas a vote of lack of confidence in the leadership of Yasser Arafat. This is not the first time that the head of the PLO has been declared politically dead, only to reappear with little loss of power.

For while Abbas and Arafat have differed in the past few months over the composition and powers of the new government, both agree on basic political issues. They see eye to eye on negotiations with Israel and on the minimum national demands the Palestinians would accept. Many Palestinians feel that the combination of the two will make the Palestinian position harder in any upcoming negotiations.

The events of the past few months have shown that Palestinians are interested in the fight for freedom and the end of occupation, and at the same time in a transparent government in tune with the daily needs of the people.

Both leaders will have to learn to live with one another politically, and find the correct formula that combines Palestinian yearning for democracy and the rule of law with allowing for a strong negotiating position on the nature of the future independent Palestinian state.

And while many have been trying to assess who are the winners and losers in this particular struggle between the two leaders, some are saying that the real winner is the speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council, Ahmad Qureei (Abu Ala’a) who has found for himself and his council the role of deal-maker in this and in any future Palestinian government.