Asia-Pacific, Headlines | Analysis

POLITICS-NEPAL: Volatile Days Ahead a Key Test for Monarchy

Analysis - By Damakant Jayshi

KATHMANDU, May 7 2003 (IPS) - Nepal’s King Gyanendra faces the sternest test ever in the face of the battlecry against monarchy, which has been rising since he assumed executive powers seven months ago and is now reaching a peak.

More protests by the five political parties and their supporters are due, starting with a week-long first phase of programmes to begin May 8.

These include a boycott of government functions, black flag demonstrations and the burning of effigies, culminating in the blocking of government vehicles from plying on the road on May 13.

Political parties of different stripes have been demanding a reversal of the royal moves that began Oct. 4, when the monarch assumed executive powers by dismissing the then Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba and installed what they call an illegal, unelected government.

Many Nepalis worry about what lies ahead in these restive times, marked by the peace talks that started last month between the government and the Maoist rebels and ongoing attempts by political parties to organise a wider movement against the king-installed government.

But not everyone is convinced by the political protests. ”The political parties are just being opportunistic,” said Kalyandhoj Thapa, a retired civil servant. "This is not jan andolan (people’s movement); they are merely fighting for power.”

"Since they are jockeying for power, I doubt they will remain united for long. They want to be a part of the government under which the parliamentary elections are held whenever they take place,” he said, referring to the demand of the political parties irked at having been sidelined when the king installed the unelected government of Prime Minister Lokendra Bahadur Chand.

Meantime, more disruptions can be expected in the days ahead. Some fear violence given events like the planned blocking of government vehicles as part of the anti-government agitation.

"This in itself is a violent call. So there is a possibility of violence breaking out if the parties take to the streets. Additionally, violence-interested elements might take advantage of the situation," said Daman Nath Dhungana, a former speaker of the lower House and one of the four facilitators in the government-Maoist peace talks.

Still, there is talk of change in the air, including speculation that Chand’s days are numbered and that the king may just take the wind of the political parties’ sail by naming a new government.

Indeed, in announcing the first phase of the "people’s movement" early, the political parties have also given the king time to appoint a new Cabinet. These days too, different politicians say they have been approached about being prime minister.

The Nepali Congress party and insiders are saying that lower House Speaker Taranath Ranabhat, who belongs to the party, has been sounded out by the palace.

But Krishna Gopal Shrestha, a central committee member of the Communist Party of Nepal (CPN) Unified Marxist Leninist said it is their general secretary who is likely to be appointed as the head of an all-party government that may be named.

The appointment of such a government is one of the two demands that the political parties have made of the king, the other being the revival of the House of Representatives.

Many in the Nepali Congress are reconciled to accepting Madhav Kumar Nepal, the general secretary of the CPN (UML) as the likely new prime minister. If this happens, Nepal’s government would have the tough responsibility of continuing talks with the Maoists, while maintaining a fine balance between the palace and the rebels.

The king still has one card up his sleeve if he is forced to appoint a new government headed by UML’s Nepal: the Maoist card. The CPN (Maoist) has already staked claim to the leadership of the interim government it has proposes.

King Gyanendra may also ask the parties and the Maoists to sort out their differences on who the prime minister is going to be – and have the last laugh if they cannot strike a compromise.

The monarch can also take solace from the serious differences the parties have on how to resolve the crises that fuelled the seven-year old Maoist insurgency that has already claimed more than 8,000 lives.

Thus, the only way the parties can force the king to accept their demands is by remaining united. The parties have already adopted an 11-point code of conduct for the joint protest movement, including an agreement to avoid public criticism of each other.

But this unity is unlikely to last, says Ananda Aditya, formerly a lecturer of political science at the Tribhuvan University. "It is difficult to believe that this camaraderie would be last long and pose a threat to monarchy."

What happens next will also depend the response of the Maoists, who are in a dilemma on the anti-government protests, since their peace talks with the government just started on Apr. 27.

That they are undecided is clear from their conflicting statements on the agitation of the political parties – giving it moral support but also saying it is aimed against the peace process.

From their viewpoint, joining the agitation might jeopardise the talks. But joining forces with the king to ‘save’ the talks would go against their goal of doing away with the monarchy and declaring Nepal a republic.

The stage is thus set for serious turmoil in the world’s only Hindu kingdom, with three principal forces – the monarchy, the politicians and the Maoists – arranged against one another.

But Dhungana says that with the government-Maoist talks underway on issues that include the form of government, a change in government in Nepal at this stage is immaterial.

"It will not be under the Constitution now as I believe there is a constitutional void after October 4 (when the king assumed executive powers). What the king can do is appoint a government that is acceptable not only to the parties but also to the Maoists,” he added.

 
Republish | | Print |

Related Tags



best negotiation book