PERU: Toledo Government at a Crossroads

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Laura Puertas

LIMA, Jun 6 2003 (IPS) - Peruvian President Alejandro Toledo is facing a serious political dilemma after a failed attempt to use force to quell a wave of protests and social unrest, and in the midst of the most profound crisis since he took office in July 2001.

Although authorities in Peru reached a preliminary accord Wednesday with representatives of the teachers’ union, which is at the forefront of the protests that have been shaking the country for over three weeks, the teachers’ strike will continue at least until Saturday.

But analysts say the deeper question is whether the government will continue following the free market economic policies that triggered the demonstrations, or will agree to demands to modify its policies.

Observers said Toledo committed one of his worst errors on May 27 when he declared a state of emergency in 12 of the country’s provinces and called the army out to stifle the protests, without previously attempting to resolve the situation through dialogue.

The next day, Edi Quilca, a 22-year-old student from the University of the Altiplano in the southeastern city of Puno was killed by a bullet in the back and 50 were injured during a military crackdown on demonstrators who were protesting the state of emergency and expressing their solidarity with the teachers’ strike.

Despite the state of emergency, the marches and protests continued around the country, revealing the government’s crisis of authority in the face of the growing popular movement.

On Tuesday, around 30,000 people took to the streets of Lima to protest the state of emergency and demand the resignation of the entire cabinet, presided over by Luis Solari, a key leader of the governing Perú Posible party.

The protesters also called for a major shift in economic policy, and compliance with the demands of the teachers, who have been on strike for almost four weeks.

Against all expectations, Tuesday’s march in Lima, which was illegal under the state of emergency, took place amidst calm, as did demonstrations held in eight other regions. But the message sent to authorities was loud and clear.

The teachers declared a work stoppage on May 12 demanding double the pay raise of 29 dollars a month offered by the government. Teachers earn an average of 200 dollars a month in this South American country of 27 million, where at least half of the population is poor.

The teachers have been supported by other public sector workers, including judicial employees, doctors and nurses, and by students and farmers.

The government was forced this week to ask the Catholic Church to broker the talks with the teachers’ union, which led to the 40- point agreement reached Wednesday by authorities and trade union leaders.

However, the strike has not yet been lifted, and teachers in several regions say they will not accept the results of the negotiations.

A teachers’ assembly will vote Saturday on whether or not to lift the strike. The head of the teachers’ union, Nilver López, did not rule out the possibility that classes could begin again on Monday.

The National Confederation of Private Business Institutions also set forth its demands, complaining that what was needed was ”a clear, coherent and realistic message” from the government.

If that message ”is accompanied by coherent action by the government, and especially by parliament, then business, workers and everyone who plays an important role in the country have the responsibility to lend their support and make every effort for the sake of achieving the longed-for route to development.”

The protesters are calling for Toledo to restructure his cabinet by naming respected independent figures, in order to give the government an injection of fresh blood.

The question, however, according to analysts, is whether the president is willing to yield part of his power in order to guarantee governance, or, as some say, to ensure the survival of ”Toledoism.”

Presidential adviser Juan Sheput told a local newspaper that his hope was that ”in the future, the government will listen to the message of the people, which means restructuring the social programmes, and reshuffling the cabinet.”

At any rate, once the teachers’ strike is lifted, Toledo will have to take measures to keep his popularity from sliding any farther.

According to the results of a poll by the University of Lima published Thursday, the president, who has not yet reached the halfway point in his term, has just 11.7 percent approval.

Toledo started out with 60 percent popularity ratings. But he quickly let down the hopes for change that led voters to back him in the polls after the authoritarian, corruption-riddled government of Alberto Fujimori (1990-2000) collapsed.

The new president continued to implement stringent structural adjustment measures, and moved towards the privatisation of public enterprises, as negotiated with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Reaching an agreement with the IMF was seen as crucial given the dire situation after five years of recession. The government has to deal with a huge fiscal deficit, and two billion dollars in debt servicing payments fall due this year.

But the accord reached with the IMF kept the president from making good on his campaign pledge to generate employment through a public works programme.

”After the teachers’ strike comes to an end, urgent modifications will have to be seen in the government,” wrote columnist Santiago Pedraglio in the daily Perú21.

That means ”overhauling the cabinet, recuperating the will to reform key segments of the state, and achieving sustained growth in the productive sector, with an emphasis on redistributing wealth, which would have to be expressed in the government’s economic policies,” he argued.