POLITICS-CYPRUS: Elections Bring a New Impasse

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Analysis by Hilmi Toros

ISTANBUL, Dec 15 2003 (IPS) - The impasse in parliamentary elections in the Turkish Northern Cyprus deals a setback to hopes for reunification of the island before its entry into the European Union in May next year.

The elections could also have an impact on Turkey’s bid to become the first Muslim member of the European Union (EU).

The elections on Sunday, portrayed as a referendum on a plan by United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan to unite the island in a loose federation between the internationally recognised south and the Turkish north, ended up with the opposition group in favour of the Annan plan gaining 51 percent of the votes. Those opposing the plan, led by hard-line President Rauf Denktash, held 49 percent.

But each camp won 25 seats, indicting either a difficult coalition or new elections within two months. Both scenarios mean delay while the EU clock ticks for the May 1 deadline.

In the absence of an accord the southern part of Cyprus will become a full EU member that day, representing the entire island even though the north may be under the control of a breakaway republic recognised only by Turkey.

A coalition of parties seeking an agreement with Greek Cypriots on the basis of the Annan plan gained more votes this time, prompting a declaration of victory. But the victory was not convincing enough for them to form a government for immediate resumption of talks.

EU officials saw the result as a sign that Turkish Cypriots rejected Denktash’s decades-old vision of two separate and equal states forming a loose union.

Despite the stalemate, Turkey is expected to make fresh efforts for a settlement before next May, mostly likely on the basis of the Annan plan. But it will also demand changes that would placate hardliners in Cyprus and in Turkey.

In the hard-fought election campaign, Denktash and his supporters accused the opposition of being interested more in economic gains through the EU than in keeping the northern part of the island a Turkish entity.

The budding pro-EU sentiment wants an end to the isolation of the north, and is claiming that an accord with Greek Cypriots ahead of the May 1 deadline would remove one problem from the volatile Eastern Mediterranean.

The failure to reach an agreement could easily inflame animosity between Greece and Turkey, as it often has. The two are engaged in rapprochement despite differences over Cyprus and territorial disputes in the Aegean Sea.

Denktash said the results showed that half the people did not want a solution along the Annan plan. Greek Cypriot analysts saw the results as a vindication for those seeking an immediate agreement, even if the margin was thin. Author Costas Carras said the pro-EU opposition could not have gained more votes in the face of strong pressure from Denktash and his supporters.

The pro-EU groups also claimed that an unusual number of settlers from mainland Turkey recently became citizens of northern Cyprus and therefore eligible to vote. Most voted for the entrenched Denktash, they say.

The voting put Turkey in a spot: the EU told Turkey that the Cyprus impasse would hurts its chances of beginning talks on accession, although this is not a precondition for membership.

The Turkish government said it would make fresh attempts to reach a solution, but would expect conciliatory moves from the Greek Cypriot side. The Greek side is sure of EU entry with or without an accord with Cypriot Turks.

But with the formation of a government in the Turkish north not in sight, the chances of a quick settlement are diminishing. This raises the likelihood that Cyprus may not be united by its membership date.

In that case Turkey’s already difficult case for membership will suffer another setback. Many in Europe say that with a population of 68 million Turkey is too big, and according to European conservatives not a part of Europe or its culture. As of May 1 the southern part of Cyprus will have veto power over Turkish entry as full EU member.

Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul says that regardless of the election result Turkey will be a major factor in creating a new opening. Turkey maintains some 35,000 troops in northern Cyprus after it took over a third of the island in response to a Greek-inspired coup bent on uniting the island with Greece in 1974.

While the Islamic-rooted government in Turkey calls EU membership a priority, it says it may fail to gain EU membership, and that will not be “the end of the world.”