Economy & Trade, Europe, Headlines

ECONOMY: Global Tourism Industry Rallies Behind Spain

Marta Smith

BERLIN, Mar 13 2004 (IPS) - When Spain was struck by civil war in 1936, volunteers from around the world formed an ‘international brigade’ to fight alongside the Republican Army. A new kind of ‘brigade’ is emerging from the world tourism fair in Berlin to ensure unhindered travel to Spain.

Shock and mourning prevails in the wake of the devastating bombings, particularly among European travel and tour operators gathered at the annual Berlin world tourism fair under way Mar 12-16. But they are determined not to let terrorists scare away tourists from Spain.

“Come and visit us in Madrid,” says Francesco Frangialli, secretary-general of the World Tourism Organisation, a special organisation of the United Nations based in the Spanish capital.

Addressing journalists, diplomats and representatives of the tourism industry from 178 countries taking part in the Berlin fair, Frangialli said Friday: “We must not let ourselves be cowed down by terrorist attacks. And we will not let ourselves be cowed down.”

Global tourism is the world’s largest peace initiative, Klaus Laepple, president of the German Travel Industry Federation said at a meeting at the fair. “This is reason enough not to let terrorists gain an upper hand.”

Frangiallo and Laepple were backed by Germany’s finance minister Wolfgang Clement and Peru’s first lady Eliane Karp de Toledo who opened the fair Friday. Peru is partner country at this year’s fair.

Eliane Karp de Toledo joined Clement in expressing Peru’s “shock and grief” at the Madrid bombings. “We have experienced terrorism for years and years and know what it means to the common man and woman and to a country’s economy,” she said. Thousands of people were killed in the 1980s and 1990s in Peru by members of the Maoist ‘Shining Path’ (Sendero Luminoso).

Alvaro Blanco, head of the Spanish tourist office in Berlin hopes that international tourists would not let fear overcome their desire to holiday in Spain this year. He is optimistic that Spain as a destination would bounce back the way Turkey did after last year’s attacks in Istanbul.

Charges have been issued against 69 people suspected of involvement in four suicide bomb attacks in the Turkish city of Istanbul last November. More than 25 people were killed in car bomb attacks on two synagogues in the city. A week later, the British consulate and the HSBC bank were targeted. Those attacks left 27 dead and more than 400 injured.

Christian Boergen, spokesman for the German travel agents association DRV, said there had been few cancellations in German tour companies. Spain is a favourite holiday resort for Germans.

Setting an example, Berlin’s governing mayor Klaus Wowereit said amidst loud applause at the opening ceremony: “Let me tell you: I am going to Spain for Easter holiday.”

While it remains to be seen how many Germans and other Europeans would translate their solidarity with Spain by emulating the example of Wowereit, Berlin did witness solidarity demonstrations on Friday.

The situation resulting from Madrid bombings is of great concern to the World Tourism Organisation for yet another reason.

“We were spared no difficulty in the last three years,” said Frangialli. “There were successive economic downturns – the tragedy of 11 September, the conflict in Iraq, terrorist attacks against tourists, the SARS epidemic, accidents and natural disasters in different parts of the world.”

The preliminary results for 2003 drawn up by the World Tourism Organisation show negative growth in global tourism.

In all 649 million international arrivals were recorded in 2003, representing a fall of 1.2 percent over 2002. The 2002 figures had recorded an increase of 2.7 percent over the previous year. “For three years now, our industry has seemingly been stuck in neutral, but it has refused to slide backwards,” said Frangialli.

But things are expected to get better in 2004 – assuming that the Madrid bombings fallout remains within limits.

“If we are able to avoid further accidents, if we do not allow fears to sweep everything away, if the necessary security measures that governments have the duty to take, especially in air transport, remain reasonable and balanced so as not to annihilate all desire to travel, then yes, we can be confident in our industry’s capacity to bounce back and grow,” said Frangialli.

The World Tourism and Travel Council (WTTC), an independent organisation of travel and tour operators, agrees with the projections made by the World Tourism Organisation.

Releasing forecasts prepared on its behalf by the company Oxford Economic Forecasting, the WTTC reported March 10 that the travel and tourism recovery is now well under way.

“The overall outlook for 2004 and beyond is for robust growth,” the WTTC said, though ahead of the Madrid bombings.

The council predicts “phenomenal” tourism growth in China and India, with the two countries expecting to record annual increases of 8.7 percent and 8.8 percent respectively over the next decade.

Worldwide for 2004, WTTC is forecasting:

– Investment, government spending and exports to grow 5.9 percent in real terms and total 5.5 trillion dollars in 2004. The ten-year annualised growth (2005-2014) forecast is 4.5 percent per annum.

– A number of travel and tourism economies are expected to benefit from the strong pound and euro against the dollar, which is expected to spur nearly 727.9 billion dollars in total visitor exports worldwide, a gain of 9.6 percent on 2003 results. This level represents 6.9 percent of total global exports.

– Travel and tourism’s contribution to the world economy is illustrated by the direct industry impact of 3.8 percent of total average gross domestic product (GDP), and the combined direct and indirect impact of the travel and tourism economy expected to total 10.4 percent in 2004.

– The global travel and tourism industry is expected to produce 3.3 million new jobs in 2004 over its 2003 level to total 73.7 million jobs or 2.8 per cent of total world employment. The broader perspective of the travel and tourism economy (direct and indirect) is expected to create nearly 10 million new jobs for the world economy for a total of 214.7 million jobs dependent on travel and tourism, or 8.1 percent of total employment.

“I am cautiously optimistic that we have weathered the storm of terrorism, war and health concerns that created a disproportionate toll of concern and impact on our consumers, the industry and our economy,” WTTC president Jean-Claude Baumgarten told a meeting at the fair.

Baumgarten was not available for comment in the aftermath of the Madrid bombings, but WTTC officials at the fair shared the general expectation that things will not get worse than they are at present.