JAPAN-NORTH KOREA: Ties More Tense, Vulnerable after Summit

By Suvendrini Kakuchi Reprint | | Print |

Suvendrini Kakuchi

TOKYO, May 24 2004 (IPS) - Frosty bilateral relations are supposed to have thawed a bit after the weekend summit between Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, but ties also appear to be on a more tense and vulnerable footing now, say analysts here.

Five children of Japanese who were released from North Korea during the first dramatic summit in October 2002 did return to Japan with Koizumi after the May 22 meeting. He had earlier promised to bring back three other family members.

But where things go after this is unclear – and that is source of discontentment among the public.

The biggest blow at the high-level meeting was Koizumi’s failure to come back from the one-day summit with concrete information about 10 more Japanese that North Korea had abducted and whom Japanese kin here say still remain in that Stalinist country.

This was a huge disappointment to the relatives of abductees, who have been waiting almost three decades for a breakthrough.

”The summit was initiated by Koizumi, who created expectations in making a breakthrough on the return of those abducted. Instead, he returned with only piecemeal progress, creating a blow to the normalisation of bilateral ties and badly damaging his reputation,” said Professor Lee Jung Won, international relations expert at Rikyo University.

Koizumi is also being faulted for not being able to force the slippery Kim to make a commitment on stopping his controversial missile and nuclear programme.

”No real results from Koizumi’s trip to Pyongyang,” wrote the ‘Yomiuri Shimbun’, Japan’s largest daily, on Monday morning. The editorial points out that Koizumi brought back no information on the 10 Japanese still in North Korea.

Likewise, few are pinning their hopes on a promise that Koizumi says he obtained from Kim that Pyongyang would start a new investigation into the 10 remaining Japanese.

”It is impossible for Japan to normalise diplomatic ties with North Korea until a comprehensive settlement on the issues of Japanese abductees and Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear development programmes can be reached,” the ‘Yomiuri Shimbun’ said in its editorial.

Analysts point out that a crucial card left for Koizumi now is making possible a reunion between Hiromi Soga and her husband, a U.S. national, and their children – who did not return with the other abductees on Saturday.

At this point, ”’appeasing the public mood is crucial for Japan’s diplomatic prowess and moving ahead with North Korea,” Professor Shinji Hiraiwa, an expert on Korea at Shizuoka University, said in an interview.

Indeed, public opinion surveys taken Sunday showed that while more than 63 percent of those polled expressed support for the talks, 70 percent were unhappy with the outcome.

A ‘Yomiuri’ newspaper poll on Monday morning showed that as much as 70 percent replied that they did not consider the high-level summit to have yielded positive results on the issues of returning the abductees or ending Pyongyang’s nuclear programme, which threatens Japan’s security.

Almost 30 percent in the poll said that Koizumi should have tried harder to get better results in Pyongyang.

Echoing this sentiment, Teruaki Matsumoto, the brother of an abducted woman who family members suspect is still held in North Korea, argued: ”If Koizumi does not have the capability to resolve the situation, we have no option but to have the next administration handle it.”

Experts say that the public’s disappointment has chilled the air for a real improvement in Japan’s ties with North Korea, which officials had hoped would improve after the first Japan-North Korea summit in 2002.

Looking back, however, Hiraiwa says the summit served the purpose of sending a firm message to North Korea. Likewise, media reports state that Kim used the summit to send a message to Washington. Kim reportedly told Koizumi that he was willing to freeze his country’s nuclear programme in exchange for energy assistance.

”Despite the problems ahead, one must look ahead. The meeting did make some progress by making contact. With more domestic support, Koizumi can go ahead,” said Professor Masao Okonogi of Keio University.

The large pledge of aid made by Koizumi is also meant to ”restore confidence” between the two nations. But the Japanese relatives of the kidnapped say handing out the assistance now – 11 million U.S. dollars plus 250,000 tonnes of rice – is too much to give to North Korea at this point.

”There must be a better commitment on the part of Kim. Our tax money must not be wasted,” said Shiego Ikuda, a family member with a missing relative still in North Korea.

Some media commentators also say that Koizumi’s decision go to North Korea was too early and that he should have waited until he gathered more support from Washington. This, in turn, would have given him a stronger platform for negotiations in Pyongyang.

”The fear remains that Kim, who certainly came out looking better in the summit than Tokyo, will use the abductees’ issue for further aid,” said Okonogi. ”That turn of events could make the public really angry, leading to a freeze in talks toward normalisation.”