VENEZUELA: Chavez’s Popularity Remains High, Polls Show

By Humberto Márquez Reprint | | Print |

Humberto Márquez

CARACAS, Jul 29 2005 (IPS) - Opinion polls usually sponsored by the opposition in Venezuela confirm that President Hugo Chávez’s popularity ratings stand high, between 60 and 80 percent.

In its latest survey, the Datanálisis polling firm found that 71.2 percent of 1,300 respondents interviewed nationwide held a positive view of the government’s performance and 22.9 percent held a negative view, the firm’s director Luis Vicente León recently told foreign correspondents.

When those surveyed were asked about confidence in Chávez’s leadership, the positive responses dropped to 58.7 percent, while 54.7 percent said they would vote for him in the hypothetical case that presidential elections were held on Jul. 31.

The next presidential elections in Venezuela will take place in December 2006, when the left-leaning Chávez current term comes to an end.

Chávez also served two years in office before he had the constitution rewritten. Under the new constitution approved by voters in 1999, new elections were held, and he won his current six-year term.

City council members will be elected on Aug. 7, and all 165 seats in Congress will be up for grabs in the Dec. 4 legislative elections.

A poll by the firm Seijas y Asociados reported 80.5 percent support for the president, while 61.5 percent of respondents said they approved of the way he has dealt with the country’s problems.

In its latest survey, the Keller polling firm found that Chávez’s popularity had dropped eight points since January, to the current 61 percent, while the proportion of those who were displeased with his performance in office rose from 22 to 28 percent.

When asked if they would vote for him if an election were held this month, 49 percent said yes while 41 percent said no.

All three polling firms have worked for years for the opposition. Between late 2001 and early 2004, they consistently reported that a majority of respondents were opposed to Chávez.

However, their results began to reflect growing support for Chávez in the run-up to the August 2004 recall referendum organised by the opposition coalition of political parties, business and labour associations and civil society organisations in an attempt to oust Chávez.

In the referendum, 59 percent of voters came out in favour of the president completing his term.

Analysts say the government’s high level of support is based on the broad range of social programmes launched over the past few years.

The initiatives include a chain of thousands of small shops selling subsidised food products to the poor, a network of community soup kitchens, a massive adult literacy drive, and scholarship programmes to enable low-income students to complete high school and go on to the university.

Other programmes involve thousands of Cuban doctors who have brought primary health care and dental care to Venezuela’s slums, or offer small loans for microenterprises and property title deeds to the urban and rural poor.

A majority of the population lives in poverty in this oil-rich country of 26 million.

Datanálisis reported that 92 percent of respondents approved of the programme that distributes low-cost food, 83 percent were pleased with the medical care programme, and over 70 percent were satisfied with the educational campaigns. Nearly one out of two respondents said they had benefited from at least one of the social programmes.

Among those interviewed by Seijas, 37.4 percent said they were beneficiaries of the programmes.

According to Keller, the government is not only funnelling the current windfall profits from record high oil prices into the social programmes, but will soon begin to draw on the country’s international reserves.

Other questions asked by pollsters referred to Chávez’s statements indicating that his government is seeking a “socialism of the 21st century.”

In the Seijas poll, 47.9 percent of those surveyed said they preferred a socialist system to a capitalist one, while 25.7 percent said they preferred capitalism and 24.6 percent said they did not know or preferred not to answer.

In response to a Datanálisis question about the friendship and alliance between Chávez and Cuba’s socialist leader Fidel Castro, 69.4 percent of respondents said they rejected the Cuban model – compared to 92.5 percent in November 2002 – while 12 percent said they were in favour of it.

Among those who declared themselves “Chavistas” or Chávez supporters, who comprised 46 percent of the interviewees, 53 percent said they rejected the Cuban system – 26 percent less than in November 2002.

Nevertheless, among the Chavistas, only 22 percent said they actually supported the Cuban system, while 42.5 percent said they preferred the United States as a model for Venezuela.

The surveys also asked respondents about how they planned to vote in the local elections in August, in which the opposition is presenting a divided front, with some groups calling for abstention.

Political analysts and pollsters unanimously predict a smashing victory for Chávez’s supporters in the elections, to the point that Felipe Mujica, the leader of the centre-left Movement to Socialism, an opposition party, said that “we’ll hit bottom after Aug. 7.”

The opposition was badly weakened by its resounding defeat in the August 2004 recall referendum and remains highly fragmented.

In October 2004, a full 244 of the 335 mayors elected nationwide were Chávez supporters.