POLITICS-CHINA: Displeased but Unlikely to Pressure Pyongyang

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Antoaneta Bezlova

BEIJING, Jul 17 2006 (IPS) - China might be North Korea’s largest trade and economic partner but expectations that Beijing would exert influence over the reclusive regime of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il and succeed in persuading him to abandon its nuclear ambitions, are misplaced, observers here say, not the least because of China’s own agenda with Pyongyang that doesn’t always dovetail with the goals of international community.

After North Korea launched a series of provocative missiles, this month, and intensified tensions on the Korean peninsula, China deployed a high-level diplomatic mission to Pyongyang and pledged to do its best publicly and behind the scenes to resolve the crisis. Washington has urged Beijing to ratchet up pressure on Pyongyang – including cutting off its oil supply and economic aid, to end its missile tests and return to international nuclear disarmament talks.

Officially, Beijing reacted angrily to the tests which came a week after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao added his voice to those warning North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il not to launch the missiles. Pyongyang test-fired seven missiles, including a long-range Taepodong-2, that may have the capability of reaching the United States, prompting Japan to seek a United Nations resolution authorising sanctions to be imposed.

Chinese Foreign ministry expressed its “serious concern” over the events – an indication of grave degree of displeasure in Chinese diplomatic parlance, according to analysts, and one conveyed to the North for the first time in relation to a missile test. Nevertheless Beijing is unlikely to act harshly. “China will not put pressure on North Korea – either publicly or privately, by cutting its financial aid or oil shipments because it would hurt its own relations with North Korea,” says Chu Shulong, professor of international relations at the Beijing Tshinghua University.

“What Beijing worries about is that the missile tests would deprive it of the opportunity to act as a negotiator at the six-nation party talks and would lead to a situation where China would not be able to help North Korea to avoid sanctions.”

While China has initiated and proudly hosted a series of six-party nation talks aimed at ending North Korea’s nuclear weapons ambitions, Beijing has acted in understanding that not hosting such talks would have been tantamount to leaving the North Korean issue to be dealt with at the U.N. Security Council.

For years, Beijing has tried to prevent referral of its old ideological ally to the Security Council for fear that a vote on sanctions on the North over its nuclear programme would see China, which holds a veto power, overtly pitted against the US and other Western powers.

This week, China put forward in the Security Council a non-binding resolution on Pyongyang’s missile provocation but asked the vote on sanctions to be delayed while its visits Pyongyang.

While China and North Korea’s alliance go back to communism heyday of the 1950s, these days Beijing’s staunch support for Kim Jong-Il’s anachronistic regime has little to do with ideology. In recent years China has become North Korea’s main trading partner and its biggest investor contributing the lion’s share of the foreign investment into the North’s floundering economy.

“Beijing is genuine in wanting to have the Korean peninsula free of nuclear weapons but Chinese leaders don’t prioritise their objectives,” says one Chinese analyst who spoke on condition of anonymity. “The North has a lot to offer to China’s economy such as minerals and untapped water resources, also cheap labour and available ports. Beijing wants to have access to all these and in order to achieve this it needs to support the current regime.”

Not unlike its economic courtship of Sudan and Iran – two other countries seen as “rogue regimes” by the U.S. and where China’s presence has provoked international concern, Beijing is spearheading a revival of North Korea’s decrepit infrastructure and industries. Analysts speak of 50 billion US dollars worth of Chinese investment being channelled into the North’s economy.

They say Beijing’s economic foray into the North was decided and sealed during Chinese president Hu Jintao’s visit to Pyongyang last October and during the reciprocal visit to China by Kim Jong-Il in January this year. Kim was accompanied by Hu Jintao on a secretive nine-day tour of China, which took him to some of the country’s showcases of economic success such as the southern economic zone of Shenzhen and the financial hub of Shanghai.

It is unclear whether Pyongyang’s missiles launch happened because or despite of Beijing’s deal on economic cooperation with North Korea. “China was opposed to the tests and unhappy that they happened,” Chu asserts.

A delegation led by Vice ûPremier Hui Liangyu is on a five-day visit of North Korea this week to mark the 45 anniversary of a bilateral friendship treaty between the two countries. The group however includes also China’s top nuclear weapons negotiator Wu Dawei, who leads China’s team in the six-nation talks on persuading the North to end its nuclear programme.

“It is time for China to exert its influence that it does have on North Korea,” U.S. undersecretary of state Nicholas Burns was quoted as saying earlier this week.

The last round of six-nation talks that included South Korea, Russia, Japan and the U.S., ended in November without agreement after the parties had signed a September 2005 declaration calling for a nuclear-free Korean peninsula.

“It would be really hard for Beijing to revive the stalled talks,” says Shi Yinhong, political observer with China People’s University in Beijing. “The main difficulty is the U.S. attitude towards North Korea. After the signing of 2005 statement, Washington’s acts towards Pyongyang caught everybody by surprise and caused those who supported the talks in the North to be silenced.”

Early this year, the U.S. riled Pyongyang by forcing Macau’s Banco Delta Asia to cease business with North Korea because of accusations of money laundering and counterfeiting. Some observers say the latest series of missiles are aimed at winning concessions from Washington as Pyongyang’s price for returning to the six-nation party talks.

North Korea has insisted on holding bilateral talks with the U.S.- a demand that Washington has so far resisted, replying it would negotiate with Pyongyang within the framework of the six-nation party talks. However, Washington’s recent agreement to hold bilateral negotiations with Iran, which U.S. President George W. Bush has ranked along with North Korea as part of the “axis of evil”, might have ignited hopes that the same concession would be made for North Korea.