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POLITICS-JAPAN: In Two Minds About the Thai Coup

Suvendrini Kakuchi

TOKYO, Sep 28 2006 (IPS) - Thailand’s 18th military coup, though bloodless and relatively calm, has raised troubling issues for Japan that plays a key role in South-east Asia’s development.

”There is no doubt that last week’s coup in Thailand came as a shock and has caused disappointment in Japan that has built close bilateral ties with the country,’’ said Prof. Yoshifumi Tamada, at the Asia-Africa Research Centre at the prestigious Kyoto University.

Tamada pointed out that the military coup, the first since 1991, is particularly shocking for Japan because it happened just when Thailand had climbed out of the economic slump brought on by the Asian financial crisis in the late nineties.

‘’Yes, corruption within the overthrown Thaksin government was a problem but was it necessary to have a military coup to deal with it?’’ asks Tamada, pointing out that despite the images of people carrying on with their daily activities, the sight of tanks in public spaces sends the message that Thailand has departed from normalcy.

Asian experts contend that Japan now faces a diplomatic dilemma on how best to deal with the situation as the issue of restoring and protecting democracy in Thailand turns into an international issue.

They explain that while the Japanese government reacted in line with its Western counterparts by condemning the coup, official protests were lukewarm compared to the angry reaction expressed by the European Union or Australia that delivered statements demanding a return to democracy as soon as possible.

‘’Japan, as the key donor to Thailand and its main investor, should have led the protests against the coup. Now Tokyo has the obligation to actively ensure the military forces take quick steps to have elections and also protect its constitution that is considered the most democratic till now,’’ said Prof. Akihisa Matsuno, an expert on South-east Asian politics at Osaka Foreign Languages University.

The military junta took over the reigns of Thailand just as Japan’s new Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, was also voted into power as leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

Abe outlined a policy of making Japan more assertive in its diplomacy under the slogan, ‘Japan-U.S. alliance for Asia and the world’ when he formed his new cabinet this week.

Abe retained the nationalist Taro Aso as foreign minister. And Aso has been engrossed with mending relations with China and South Korea, so much so that Matsuno views this as ignoring the need to bring democracy to Thailand and the region.

Soon after the coup, Aso issued a statement saying that Japan strongly hopes the ‘’situation will soon be back to normalcy” and advised Japanese tourists to stay away from Thailand.

A major reason for the weak reaction in Tokyo, according to Matsuno, lies with the importance that Japan attaches to economic ties with Thailand. ‘’Japan’s relations with Thailand and the rest of Asia are heavily based on economic growth rather than the vision of promoting democracy,’’ he explained.

He pointed out the same policy is outlined in Japan’s relations with Burma that is the only other country in South-east Asia governed by a military government. Tokyo has chosen not to pressure the junta in Rangoon as hard as the West does to nudge it towards democratic elections.

More than 1,200 Japanese companies operating in Thailand, which is also the highest recipient of Japanese investment in South-east Asia- 4.7 billion dollars in 2005. Also more than 4 million Japanese visit Thailand annually, the hottest tourist destination in Asia.

Despite Tokyo’s egg shell diplomacy, Seiya Sukegawa, expert on the Thai economy at the quasi governmental Japan External Trade Organisation, explained that the coup has had an impact on Japan’s economic ties with Thailand.

‘’A major concern for Japanese businessmen is the future of the Japan-Thailand Free Trade Agreement which was about to be signed under the Thaksin government. Now, with the military junta in power, we might have to start negotiations again. The future is very uncertain which is not good for business,’’ he said.

Sukegawa said Thailand rose to become the most popular host for Japanese investment in the eighties and mid-nineties because of its political stability. ‘’That image has been seriously marred due to the recent coup. While I don’t see existing companies rushing out of Thailand, Japanese businesses have been inquiring more about Vietnam, and the coup is accelerating this trend,’’ he added.

Still, some business commentators point out that corruption in the overthrown Thaksin government was also a concern for Japan. Japanese media has reported widely how, for example, Thaksin had taken more than 119 suitcases on his fateful visit to the United Nations headquarters in New York last week when the coup took place. He has since taken refuge in London.

”The whole Thai affair has highlighted once again that South-east Asia’s democracies are immature and brought home the message of the vulnerability of relationships with governments in the region,’’ said Prof. Koichi Ishiyama who teaches business at Tooin University.