TURKEY: Military Emerges for Modernity

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Analysis by Jacques N. Couvas*

ANKARA, Oct 6 2006 (IPS) - The election of the Justice and Development (AKP) party in 2003 has given an old debate a new turn.

The National Security Council (MGK), established by the constitution of 1961 (although present in the country’s governance since 1933, as Supreme Defence Assembly) and composed predominantly of senior military commanders, has seen its autonomy curtailed, especially after the voting by the Parliament of a reform package for the Council initiated by AKP.

Was it an accounts-settling? The ruling party has insisted that this reform, which downgrades the MGK to a consultative role rather than a co-decision one together with the civil government and of enforcement of the latter’s compliance with the constitution, was necessary in order to appease the EU, which has consistently been critical about the active influence of the military in the nation’s political affairs.

The fact, however, that the AKP was formed in 2000 after the break-up by the MKG of the Welfare Party, an Islamist movement, on the grounds that the latter threatened secularism cannot be ignored.

The relationship has since had ups and downs, with mutual stone-throwing from time to time, but the recent move by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to send Turkish troops to join the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon and his rhetoric have added oil to the fire.

The tension sparkled in early September, when Erdogan, answering criticism by families of solders killed in clashes with Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) insurgents, remarked that “the military isn’t a post where you can lie down and take it easy.”

Capitalising on President Ahmet Necdet Sezer’s earlier concerns about the government’s social policies, which would indicate a shift towards less moderate Islamist trends, military commanders in turns have become outspoken in expressing their distaste for the prime minister.

They were given additional licence to challenge Oct. 1, when Sezer, addressing the Parliament, confirmed MKG’s warnings of a rising threat against Turkey from Islamist forces and defended the military, saying that its credibility and status as a supra-party institution must be protected.

“The Islamist reactionary danger is one of the threats to our internal security,” said Sezer. If one looks over the past 20 years one can realise that “the (Islamist) reactionary threat has not changed its objectives of altering the basic characteristics of the state,” he added.

Just a day later, on Oct. 2, Gen. Yasar Buyukanit, Chief of General Staff, in a much- anticipated speech at the War Academy, publicly released the brewing anger of the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK).

Although he tried to avoid embarrassing Erdogan too much just ahead of Erdogan’s visit to Washington, he openly accused the government for humiliations inflicted upon the military, and using the EU and private think-tanks to justify measures aiming at reducing MGK’s and TSK’s role in shaping the country’s future. He emphasised the importance of secularism for Turkey. “The future of the regime is my responsibility,” concluded Gen. Buyukanit.

Erdogan immediately reacted with statements countering all allegations. He also had the White House comment that the United States was not worried about fundamentalism in Turkey.

The position taken by the TSK chief seems to be nevertheless popular with the majority of Turks. True, the armed forces are the most trusted institution of the country for 88 percent of the opinions gathered through polls. The increasing uneasiness among the officers also reflects citizen concerns in anticipation of next year’s legislative and presidential elections.

Sezer, who has acted so far as the main opposition force against the Prime Minister, will not be candidate for a new term. With AKP most certainly controlling the Parliament, the Iran sceptre is being raised. Imagination is a core capability in Turkish politics, where conspiracy theories now flourish. What if Erdogan, leading both the House of Representatives and the supreme office of the Republic, had in his mind to accelerate Islamic fundamentalism? Would Turkey eventually follow Iran’s model?

The base for concern may sound valid. AKP, a conservative right-wing Islamist party, obtained 34.3 percent of the vote in the last elections. There are also the Islamist Felicity and Great Union parties who together had 3.6 percent of the vote, plus another eight religious parties. In addition, there are many citizens sympathetic to Islamism who, for a number of reasons, have in the past voted for different parties.

Is there enough reason to become alarmist? The Turks have consistently been controversial in their political choices but have always kept deep in their souls the firm belief that, no matter what, they have among themselves an overarching guardian angel and saviour: the Armed Forces. Moreover, open fundamentalism would signal the end of any and all hopes for EU membership.

As the AKP presses ahead with its own agenda, the President, TSK, MGK, and the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the main opposition party and the oldest one in Turkey, with the strongest allegiance to Ataturk’s principles, appear to have formed a bloc determined not to let the government go any further in undermining secularism.

If the temperature remains at its present level, political life is likely to be quite feverish until the next elections. With his visit to Bush not crowned by success, and the invitation extended on Oct. 3 to General Buyukanit by the U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Peter Pace to visit the Pentagon next February, Erdogan’s headache has gone up a twist or two.

*This is the second in a set of two articles.