EGYPT: Saudis Seek New Arab Leadership

By Adam Morrow Reprint | | Print |

Adam Morrow and Khaled Moussa al-Omrani

CAIRO, Apr 22 2007 (IPS) - In these days of regional instability, Saudi Arabia has seized the initiative diplomatically, mediating in crises from Palestine and Lebanon to sub-Saharan Africa. While some see Riyadh’s rising profile as a threat to Egypt’s traditional role in the region, others say Saudi diplomacy merely complements Cairo’s own foreign policies.

“Saudi’s diplomatic role works in tandem with Egypt’s,” Mohamed Aboul Hadid, political analyst and chairman of state-owned print house Dar al-Tahrir (publisher of government daily al-Gomhouriya) told IPS. “The two countries enjoy a very close relationship, which allows for a high degree of coordination and the formulation of a unified position.”

Since his accession to the throne in August 2005, Saudi King Abdullah Bin Abdel-Aziz has followed an increasingly vigorous foreign policy. Especially within recent months, Riyadh has announced a number of diplomatic offensives aimed at several of the region’s ongoing political crises, from neighbouring Iraq to Sudan’s Darfur region and Somalia.

“There’s hardly a file the Saudis are not involved in,” one Arab diplomat was quoted as saying in the state press early this month. “They have involved themselves in every crucial regional issue.”

In an Apr. 14 address to the Saudi Consultative Council, Abdullah vowed to “double Saudi diplomatic efforts regionally and internationally.” It was the kingdom’s responsibility, he said, “to play an effective role…in defending (Arab) causes, safeguarding its own interests and confronting the dangers of strife, division and conflict.”

The kingdom’s most notable diplomatic victory came in February with the signing of the Mecca Agreement. That treaty – personally endorsed by the Saudi monarch – yielded the successful formation of a Palestinian unity government and staved off open conflict between Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah.

Nor has Riyadh neglected the ongoing crisis in Lebanon, where an ongoing power-sharing dispute has pitted the Shia-led opposition against the government in Beirut since December. Earlier this month, Lebanese Parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri reportedly enlisted the kingdom’s efforts to broker a deal over the divisive issue of a proposed international tribunal into the assassination of slain Lebanese premier Rafik Hariri.

According to the Lebanese press, Berri expressed pessimism about solving the impasse “without the help of countries like Saudi Arabia.”

In March, Abdullah also hosted a number of major Iraqi political figures, including the president of autonomous Kurdish region Massoud Barzani and former Iraqi prime minister Iyad Allawi. The king even met with controversial Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, with whom he reportedly discussed Tehran’s nuclear enrichment programme.

The kingdom’s image as regional leader was again highlighted at the recent Arab Summit, held late last month in the Saudi capital. That gathering saw the reanimation of the Saudi- backed Arab Initiative, originally tabled at the 2002 Beirut summit, which offers across- the-board Arab recognition of Israel in exchange for core Palestinian demands.

Although Tel Aviv was quick to repeat its longstanding rejection of the offer, Israeli Prime Minster Ehud Olmert lavished praise on the Saudi monarch, calling him a “remarkable leader”. In reference to the Saudi-backed initiative, he told the Israeli press that it indicated “the greater sense of responsibility that Saudi Arabia is prepared to take in the politics of the Middle East.”

Abdullah also surprised observers at the summit when he referred to U.S. forces in Iraq as an “illegitimate foreign occupation.” Although the statement risked angering the kingdom’s U.S. patron, it nevertheless reflected common Arab perceptions.

“Abdullah said this because everyone in the region knows it’s true,” said Aboul Hadid. “To say otherwise would mean losing prestige on the Arab street.”

According to some local commentators, Riyadh’s expanding diplomatic portfolio – along with Abdullah’s welcome bluntness vis-à-vis the U.S. – has come at the expense of Egypt’s traditional role as regional leader. They point to the successful Mecca Agreement in particular as an indication of Cairo’s waning diplomatic clout in Palestine, historically an Egyptian sphere of influence.

“Egypt’s diplomatic role has declined,” Abdel-Halim Kandil, political analyst and editor-in- chief of opposition weekly al-Karama said shortly after the agreement was signed. “It has turned into that of spectator.”

“Since the Mecca Agreement, Saudi has dominated the Palestinian file,” Ahmed Thabet, professor of political science at Cairo University told IPS. “This comes despite the fact that Egypt has long been the main channel for negotiations between Palestinian factions.”

Others disagree, however, saying the two capitals’ foreign policies are generally working towards the same end.

“The Saudi role compliments, rather than competes with, the Egyptian role,” Gemal Kemal, political analyst and deputy editor-in-chief of official daily al-Misaa told IPS. “In modern international politics, regional crises have to be solved by more than one diplomatic patron.”

While the Mecca Agreement was signed in Saudi Arabia, added Kemal, it could not have materialised without the influence of Egypt and Syria on Fatah and Hamas respectively. Kemal also pointed to Egypt’s active diplomatic role in other inter-Arab disputes, such as the longstanding state of animosity between Libyan leader Moamar Qaddafi and the Saudi regime.

Other observers, however, express skepticism over Riyadh’s claims to Arab leadership, suggesting that the phenomenon is being closely managed by Washington from behind the scenes. They say that Abdullah’s remarks were intended – with tacit U.S. approval – for domestic audiences, with the aim of proving the kingdom’s Arab credentials in its bid for regional leadership.

“The U.S. wants Saudi Arabia to play a greater diplomatic role in the region,” Kandil told IPS. “Therefore, Washington allowed the king’s remarks to improve the image of Saudi Arabia on the Arab street.”

According to Kandil, the U.S. is hoping to use Saudi Arabia as a bulwark against the perceived ascendancy of Shia Iran. “The U.S. wants to see Saudi become the leader of Arab nationalism against the ambitions of Tehran,” he said.

Thabet agreed. “With the consent of the U.S., Saudi has taken over several important diplomatic portfolios from Egypt,” he said. “There’s certainly a degree of back-channel coordination going on between Riyadh, Washington and Tel Aviv.”

“Saudi, with U.S. connivance, is trying to pre-empt the Iranian influence on Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Syrian influence on Hamas in Palestine,” added Thabet.

In a bold assertion of the kingdom’s leadership, one Saudi official was recently quoted in the press as saying that Abdullah “sees himself as a new (former Egyptian president) Gamal Abdel Nasser, without the socialist aspect.”

But according to Thabet, Abdullah’s ambitions stand in stark contrast to those of the late Egyptian icon of pan-Arabism.

“Nasser’s vision was based on uniting the Arabs,” he said. “Abdullah’s is simply based on the maintenance of regional stability and the protection of Arab regimes.”

Regardless of Saudi dreams of leadership, most opposition figures say the loss of Egyptian diplomatic prestige has become a fait accompli.

“Egypt’s role has gone from being a diplomatic one to a touristic one, in which it simply hosts conferences in Sharm el-Sheikh,” said Kandil. “The U.S. used to rely on Cairo to implement its foreign policy – now it relies on Riyadh.”