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POLITICS-MALAYSIA: Badawi Won’t Quit, Will Pursue Reforms

Analysis by Baradan Kuppusamy

KUALA LUMPUR, Jul 14 2008 (IPS) - Malaysia’s beleaguered Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi, who has been under mounting pressure to resign after his 14-party National Front coalition fared its worst in the Mar. 8 polls, has stunned the nation by saying he will stay on till mid-2010.

The announcement caught the country by surprise, especially because this means a nearly two-year-long wait before the widely favoured deputy prime minister Najib Razak can inherit power.

The long handover period has stumped critics some of whom see it as a move by Badawi, whose term formally ends 2013, to delay his departure. But others say it is a genuine move to complete unfinished business.

Badawi himself says he needs two more years to complete the reforms he has initiated and also revive the sluggish economy before stepping down.

“I can’t just leave the nation in the lurch,” he told Malaysians over national television a day after the dramatic announcement Jul. 10. “That would be an irresponsible thing to do.”

Despite the announcement his political opponents – both in his ruling United Malay National Organisation (UMNO) party and outside – continue to demand his immediate resignation as the only way the coalition can find a new leader and prepare to recoup election losses.

Chief among the critics who are demanding Badawi’s immediate resignation is Dr Mahathir Mohamad, the former prime minister who selected Badawi as his successor.

“Not in 2010, not in December, but now to give Najib (Razak) time to restore UMNO,’’ Mahathir wrote in his blog www.chedet.com a day on Jul. 11. “He cannot restore the party because what people want is for him to resign, and then the support will return to BN (the ruling coalition).’’

The offer to quit in 2010 has however temporarily calmed national politics but the fundamental reasons for the turmoil – a heated contest for power among the ruling elite – has not been resolved.

Most political analysts say Badawi was faced with a challenge by Razak in the UMNO elections in December and has managed to stave off the challenge by offering him the job – but only in mid-2010.

“A lot can happen in the meantime,” said a senior academic with the National University of Malaysia who declined to be identified because of the heated political atmosphere.

“Najib is politically damaged by Anwar’s allegation that he was connected to the murdered Mongolian translator,” the academic said. “The trial is not over yet and a lot of questions remain unanswered.”

“More dirt (on the sensational 2006 murder)could surface to irreparably damage Najib’s chances at a critical moment,” the academic added.

A former police officer, produced by opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim at a press conference on Jul. 3, claimed that Razak had an affair with the Mongolian translator (and model) Altantuya Shaariibuu – a claim strenuously denied by the deputy premier.

On his part, Ibrahim is again fending off new sodomy charges made by an aide, casting a long shadow over his political future, and openly declared ambition of becoming the next prime minister.

While Badawi seems to have temporarily stayed Razak’s challenge for the UMNO presidency (the winner automatically becomes prime minister), he still has to contend with Ibrahim’s moves to engineer defections to topple his government.

Ibrahim has been constantly snapping at his heels, tabling a vote of no-confidence in parliament, holding huge rallies across the country and organising almost daily protests in the capital on one pretext or another. He has vowed to seize power by national day on Sep. 16.

The public which voted for the opposition in large numbers for the first time fears that political infighting would derail the fundamental reforms that Ibrahim has promised, now that his attention is focused on fending off the sodomy charges.

Likewise, Badawi’s early steps to reform the battered judiciary, the corrupt and inefficient police force and fight corruption in the bureaucracy would be killed if he quits.

“Whether Najib makes it in two years time, or Anwar topples the government, the uncertainties are only set to multiply,” said the academic. “I don’t see a respite for Malaysia in the next five years. The politics are uncertain, the economies are sluggish and the future appears clouded.”

Razak has blue-blood political credentials being the son of Malaysia’s revered second prime minister Abdul Razak, the real architect of the ‘bumiputra’ affirmative action policy that lifted ethnic Malays out of poverty.

Razak was for years under the shadow of Mahathir and is still seen as a “Dr Mahathir loyalist”. He is known to be in sync with Mahathir’s policies marked by ethno-nationalism, focus on heavy industry and politics of regional brinkmanship with little consideration for the environment, human rights and people-centred policies.

If Razak succeeds, the academic said, Mahathir is expected to return as an advisor to the government and be a major influence on policy decisions.