EUROPE: A GIANT CRIPPLE

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MIAMI, Nov 27 2008 (IPS) - In case president elect Barack Obama doesn\’t have enough files awaiting him on the desk of the Oval Office, the National Intelligence Council has prepared him some additional reading that may dim his characteristic smile. \”Global 2025: A World Transformed\” is the title of the futuristic document that is part alarming, part depressing, writes Joaquin Roy, Jean Monnet professor and director of the European Union Centre of the University of Miami. In this analysis, Roy writes that according to the report, by 2025 the European integration process will have suffered a period of growth too sluggish to be able to advance European interests. To bolster its coherence, the EU will have to resolve the \”democratic deficit that separates Brussels from the citizens\”. The EU is capable of contributing to the \”stability and democratisation of the periphery of Europe\”, particularly the Balkans and Turkey. But Brussels may fail to persuade the citizens of EU member states of the benefits of deeper integration and to convince them to meet the needs of an aging population \”by carrying out painful reforms\”. As a consequence, the EU could turn into a \’\’gigantic cripple\”, distracted by \”internal bickering and competing national agendas\”. The result will be an EU incapable of \”translating its economic power into global influence\”. This grim scenario is enough to take away Obama\’s smile. It is bad news not only for Europe but for the US as well. Optimists, however, feel that the predictions in the report are exaggerated, the product of shoddy speculation. The writing in many sections of the document resembles a first-year university essay. After all, a challenge -which is what the report outlines- is not the same thing as destiny.

The report claims that the United States will have lost its position as global hegemon midway through the 2020s. Other powers -China, India- will vie against it for control of the planet. Africa will be in even worse shape than it is today, ravaged by hunger. Latin America will be unable to compete in the international system and remain sapped by drug trafficking and organised crime, which undermines the safety of its citizens and fuels continuous emigration. Although Washington’s influence in the region will decline somewhat, it will remain a magnet. The growing Hispanic population will raise the relevance to the US of the culture, economy, and politics of Latin America, but other urgent global issues might provoke a lack of attention and so the repetition of a recurring cycle.

The analysis of Europe in general, certain countries and the European Union (EU) in particular, is striking in its brevity and bluntness. According to the report’s calculations, by 2025 the European integration process will have suffered a period of growth too sluggish to be able to advance European interests. To bolster its cohesion, the EU will have to resolve the “democratic deficit that separates Brussels from the citizens”.

The report recognises that the EU is capable of contributing to the “stability and democratisation of the periphery of Europe”, particularly the Balkans and Turkey. But Brussels may fail to persuade the citizens of EU member states of the benefits of deeper integration and to convince them to meet the needs of an aging population “by carrying out painful reforms”. As a consequence, the EU could turn into a ”gigantic cripple”, distracted by “internal bickering and competing national agendas”. The result will be an EU incapable of “translating its economic power into global influence”.

The aging of the active population represents a “grave problem for the European social welfare model”, the cornerstone of the political cohesion of Europe since 1945. Economic liberalisation will be weak until demographic pressure forces more dramatic changes. Meanwhile, there will be a cut in public benefits, defence spending, and social programmes. As for institutional reform of the EU, the report is particularly sceptical regarding the effectiveness of a “European president” or a “foreign minister” to address crises that arise. Plagued by national rivalries, which will complicate foreign policy and security policy and erode NATO (the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation), Europe will not become a military power in 2025.

In a display of the US obsession with Turkish membership in the EU, the report condemns the damage that denying membership would cause. It also asserts that the Muslim population is becoming radicalised and that Islam and the West are incompatible. This negative perspective is related to the increase in organised crime produced by energy dependence. A number of governments in Central and Eastern Europe could fall under domination of these criminal enterprises. Naturally Russia is seen as behind these evils, since the European states (Germany, Italy) will find themselves unable to free themselves from the dependence on Russian gas and oil. Later will come the collapse of supply as a result of the failure to modernise and the corruption that already affects the Eurasian region. This virus will sweep through European business as well.

This grim scenario is enough to take away Obama’s smile. It is bad news not only for Europe but for the US as well. What is bad for Europe is bad for the US -to retool the saying “What is good for General Motors is good for America”, attributed to an ex-president of GM. The Europeans have been and remain the most reliable allies of the US. Optimists, however, feel that the predictions in the report are exaggerated, the product of shoddy speculation. Its authors claim to have visited the future; the readers, however, do not have the luxury of time travel. In reality, the writing in many sections of the document resembles a first-year university essay. After all, a challenge -which is what the report outlines- is not the same thing as destiny. (END/COPYRIGHT IPS)