Headlines, Human Rights, Middle East & North Africa

LEBANON: How Not to Oppose an Opposition

Mona Alami

BEIRUT, Jun 25 2009 (IPS) - Christian heads of both the majority and the opposition have raised their stakes ahead of the imminent formation of the Lebanese government headed by Sunni leader Saad Hariri.

"General Aoun is calling for proportional representation in the next government," says MP Ghassan Moukhaiber from the Change and Reform bloc (C&R) headed by General Michel Aoun's Christian Free Patriotic Movement (FPM). The C&R, the largest Christian bloc with 18 seats in a parliament of 128, is a part of the parliamentary opposition.

The Christian community, said to constitute about a third of a population of 4.6 million, determines in large measure the shape of the parliament and the subsequent government.

The significance of Christian participation in the Lebanese government goes back to the days before the 1975-1990 civil war. Christians then ruled Lebanon, with the constitution stipulating that the president must always be a Christian Maronite.

During the war, massive conflicts divided the Christians, culminating in the fierce 1989 battle between Samir Geagea's Lebanese Forces (LF) and troops directed by General Aoun, who was head of the Lebanese armed forces at the time.

The 1989 Taef Accord brokered by the Saudis ended the conflict, and transferred much of the power of the Maronite president to the council of the ministry, headed by a Sunni Muslim.

After the 2005 Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon, the Kataeb party and LF aligned themselves with the pro-Western March 14 movement dominated by the Sunni Future movement, while the C&R bloc joined the pro-Iranian and Syrian March 8 movement, led by the Shia party Hizbullah.

"Christians were clearly split during the (2009) elections, as witnessed in the close electoral results of various candidates in different regions," says political scientist Hilal Khashan from the American University of Beirut.

In the 2005 parliamentary elections, the FPM is said to have obtained 70 percent of the Christian vote in the Maronite heartland. This year, while the C&R bloc obtained 27 seats, the March 14 Christian candidates won seats in Christian strongholds. In one such, Ashrafieh, they won 53.77 percent of the vote.

They also won seats in other Christian regions: two (out of two) in the northern region Batroun, the two seats in Becharreh, the seven seats in the eastern city Zahleh, as well as two out of the eight seats in the Metn.

"The pluralism of the Christian street – in theory excellent – has weakened the community because of the Lebanese political context, where power is coalesced within the dominant Shia and Sunni communities," says Khashsan.

Christians on both sides of the divide, however, are working towards revamping the prevailing political system. "We intend to play a determining role to complete our electoral programme, which is based on protecting the integrity and sovereignty of the country, and rebuilding its institutions," says Moukheiber.

"We are not just in the business of defending Christian rights, but are also insisting on implementing important measures in state building, such as decentralisation. We want to see the emergence of an independent judiciary, and an effective council of ministries and parliament."

Salah Honein, a political leader allied to March 14, says the Christians will continue to promote democracy, openness, and freedom of speech. But the two sides disagree on how to realise goals that, on paper, appear closely intertwined.

The C&R believes in formation of a unity government, in which the opposition would be granted a third of the seats, and veto power. This type of government was previously adopted to put an end to the May 2008 conflict, during which violent clashes between the majority and opposition led to the death of 68 people.

Honein, on the other hand, emphasises that "in any parliamentary democracy it is the majority that rules, and the minority that sits in opposition."

Moukhaiber argues that veto power was granted to the Christian community after the Taef accords to compensate the diminished presidential power. He claims that the C&R therefore, being the most representative Christian group, has the right to veto power.

"A unity government can't be achieved unless the opposition and majority agree on a unified programme and priorities, which is not the case in Lebanon, where different sides are defending different projects and agendas," says Honein.

Khashan says that the U.S., Syria and some other Arab countries have already decided on the formation of the new government, agreeing for now to keep Lebanon peaceful. The election of speaker of the house Nabih Berry on Thursday is a clear indicator that consensus has been reached between majority and opposition.