UZBEKISTAN: Unrest Likely to Resurface, Experts Say

By Sanjay Suri Reprint | | Print |

Sanjay Suri

LONDON, May 16 2005 (IPS) - The violent unrest that has broken out in Uzbekistan could be crushed for now but is likely to rise again, experts say.

The unrest is rooted largely in socio-economic problems but the repression could unleash a wave of militant Islamic reaction, they say.

”Uzbekistan has seen a small Islamic movement that has long been banned, but so have all other opposition parties,” Prof. Margot Light from the London School of Economics and Political Science told IPS. ”But there has been a long history of political suppression on the pretext of the danger from Islamic fundamentalism.”

The regime of President Islom Karimov is ”quite capable of crushing the present unrest, but it won’t disappear for ever,” Light said. ”But it most certainly will rise again.”

Afghanistan could be a crucial factor in developments, she said. ”Islamic terrorists who were banned from Uzbekistan earlier took refuge in Afghanistan and launched a number of attacks through Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan,” she said. ”This Islamic movement is said to have been wiped out after the war (in Afghanistan) but sympathy for them has not been completely eliminated.”

Unrest is likely to reappear also ”because of the pattern in the rest of the former Soviet Union,” she said.

This kind of problem will arise ”in any country where legitimate parties are banned,” Light said. ”Extremists then find it relatively easy to mobilise people. This means a grave danger because people who oppose a regime have nowhere to go except to join extremist movements.”

Russia is likely to continue to support Karimov because ”Islamic fundamentalism is of great concern to Russia and other Central Asian Republics,” she said. ”But privately they are probably urging a less violent response.”

The violence has spread already, and many fear it could spread further.

”It could get worse before it gets better,” Jennifer Moll from the Foreign Policy Centre, a Blairite think-tank told IPS. ”There is a lot of long-term anger over poverty, unemployment and other social problems.”

The per capita gross national income (GNI) of Uzbekistan in terms of purchasing power parity is 1,800 dollars a year. But inequalities have grown sharply within the largely state-controlled economy.

The poorest are from among the Sunni Muslims, who make up about 88 percent of the population of 28 million. Uzbekistan has a more prosperous minority of people of Russian origin.

Uzbekistan has rich oil and cotton resources, but its Muslims have seen little of the benefit of that under the government of Karimov, who was made president by the former Supreme Soviet back on March 24, 1990.

The present unrest grew out of the imprisonment of Islamic extremists. ”Karimov has blamed the unrest on them,” Moll said. ”But average people are upset by the poverty and unemployment, and there is enough of that in society for us to see more of this unrest. The standard of life has pushed some people towards Islamic extremism.”

Karimov has failed to take such frustration into account, she said. ”He has insulated himself more and more.” An immediate result as a consequence will be ”at the very least more unrest and an increasing vocal expression of the angry.”

Kyrghystan will be particularly affected, Moll said. In some places the Uzbek government appeared not in control of the border, and thousands of refugees seem to have fled into the neighbouring country, she said.

Across from Uzbekistan, the unrest is likely to spread alarm in most Central Asian Republics, she said.