YEMEN: A Change, But to What

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Nabil Sultan

SANA'A, Aug 10 2005 (IPS) - The announcement by 63-year-old Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh that he will not contest elections next year has brought new uncertainty about the future of the country.

Yemen, a country of 21 million at the crossroads of Asia, Africa and the Arab world has been led by Saleh since 1990. He was earlier leader of North Yemen, the traditional and tribal part of Yemen since 1978 when he took power in a military coup. North Yemen and the Marxist-led South Yemen merged in 1990. United Yemen survived a breakaway bid by southern leaders in 1994.

Saleh announced he would not stand for elections at a meeting with party leaders who came to congratulate him on the 27th anniversary of his assuming power Jul. 17, 1978. "I hope that all political parties find young leaders to compete in the elections because we have to train ourselves in the practice of peaceful succession," he told them.

Saleh’s seven-year term ends in September next year, but constitutionally he can seek office for another term. He won the last election with a 96 percent majority. Several opposition members called it a rigged vote.

But the announcement from Saleh may not mean the last of him. Several leaders in the ruling People’s General Congress (PGC) have said he should not quit the party or its leadership. They say the party first needs to restore credibility. It is widely blamed for financial failures and administrative corruption.

But other leaders see new hope. "Strong competition will encourage the PGC to present young rivals who can then take us towards more reforms," PGC leader Yasser al-Awadhi said.

Reforms can be a controversial idea. Two days after Saleh made his announcement, the government lifted subsidies on fuel that brought price hikes and protests in which several demonstrators were killed.

It is not clear what alternatives are at hand. The opposition Islah party that had earlier resigned itself to more of Saleh is ready to present a strong challenge, says its leader Mohammad Qahtan. "The right democratic course is to object to nominating again a person who has ruled for 28 years," he said.

"The government should confess to its failure," political analyst Mohammad al-Sabri told IPS. "The country needs political and economic reforms. Building a strong society is essential for building a democratic system. We have democracy but it is corroding. We have freedoms but they are shrinking."

Some leaders have been proposing an alliance between the PGC and Islah in a new government. The two parties had an alliance until 1994. "Leaders of the two parties should know that good relations between them is important for the country’s stability and democracy," political analyst Nasr Mustafa told IPS.

"Yemen has started in the direction of democratisation and we should continue that way," he said. "Otherwise Yemen could go the way of dictatorship."

The political changes in the offing could give the south of the country a new voice. Last week the Yemeni Socialist Party elected Yassin Saeed Noaman, a former leader from south Yemen as secretary-general . He was among the leaders expelled from the country after the 1994 civil war.

Some leaders have expressed the fear that a southern party may again want to lead a separation of the south. Many people in the south believe that the government has remained partial to people and to development in the north.

But Saleh is also being told that whatever he does, he should not change his decision to step down.

"Please, President, don’t change your decision," Kuwaiti writer Ahmad al-Rabee said in a letter to Saleh. "If you don’t, you will be the first Arab leader to leave office willingly. You will be following great leaders like George Washington and Nelson Mandela."