BURMA: U.N. Envoy’s Frustrations Affirm Failure of Policies So Far

By Marwaan Macan-Markar Reprint | | Print |

Analysis - By Marwaan Macan-Markar

BANGKOK, Nov 14 2002 (IPS) - When a U.N. special envoy to Burma threatened to quit this week if Rangoon’s military government continues to drag its feet on political reform, he all but affirmed that international efforts to bring change in that South-east Asian nation have so far been failing.

The outburst by Razali Ismail, the U.N. envoy, comes six months after foreign governments and he were upbeat mood after Burmese opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s release from 19 months of house arrest.

Razali, who is in Burma from Nov. 12-16, was credited for his behind-the-scenes effort in securing Suu Kyi’s freedom in early May. The Malaysian ex-diplomat used that moment to press for quiet, instead of confrontational, diplomatic measures to secure political change in Burma.

But his recent comments to an independent Malaysian on-line publication reveal his growing frustrations with Rangoon.

”A promise was made to me – that there would be a dialogue,” he told ‘Malaysiakini’ just before he went to Burma to again try to breathe life into the country’s stalled national reconciliation process.

”I would be bringing the concern of the United Nations and the international community to ask why since the lifting on the restrictions on Suu Kyi in May, a dialogue did not take place,” he said.

Razali has asked to meet Senior Gen Than Shwe, the head of the military government who analysts believe is the key figure who will decide whether Rangoon will enter into dialogue with the opposition. Razali has already met with Suu Kyi.

His current trip to Burma, which had been renamed Myanmar by the military government, is his ninth since he took up his appointment two years ago to facilitate a dialogue between the government and the opposition.

Looking back, Razali’s tough rhetoric was inevitable. In recent weeks, senior U.N. officials based in Rangoon and Bangkok have hinted that the international body was growing increasingly frustrated at the lack of meaningful political change in Burma after Suu Kyi’s freedom.

”Aung San Suu Kyi’s release convinced many that the military regime was willing to work along the lines envisioned by Mr. Razali,” said a ranking Rangoon-based U.N. official. ”We were not expecting miracles, but we felt a breakthrough had been made and the next steps of the national reconciliation process were going to occur soon.”

But the months since May have shown that the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), as Rangoon’s junta is officially known, is marching to a different tune.

U.N. officials say the SPDC’s stance has been embarrassing to both the United Nations and Razali because it has undercut the policy of quiet diplomacy that the U.N. envoy had held up as the apt strategy to initiate change in Burma.

The findings of a recent report on Burma’s armed forces by the International Crisis Group (ICG), a Brussels-based non-governmental organisation, only add to the United Nations woes.

There is a belief among the military hierarchy that ”regardless of any changes that might need to be made in the way the country is governed, the armed forces should remain the ultimate arbiters of power in Myanmar and have all the means necessary to impose their will on the country,” the IGC report states.

Senior military officers do not ”share the sense of urgency felt by the international community over the need for a compromise with the democratic opposition,” adds the report ‘Myanmar: The Future Of the Armed Forces’.

In fact, the IGC said, Burma’s armed forces are ”now able not only to crush civil disturbances in the cities and respond to periodic guerrilla attacks in the countryside, but also to conduct much larger and more effective counter-insurgency operations”.

With its unprecedented numbers – some 400,000 this year compared to 190,000 in 1988 – the Burmese armed forces also have the means for the first time in history ”to carry out extended conventional operations in defence of Myanmar’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”, the report said.

Equally frustrated by the SPDC’s lack of action is the European Union.

”EU members thought that what happened in South Africa after Nelson Mandela’s release would happen in Myanmar after Suu Kyi’s freedom,” a senior Bangkok-based U.N. official told IPS.

”They also felt the call for sanctions and economic pressure against Myanmar would work in compelling the SPDC to talk to the opposition and move the country towards democracy,” he added.

But Burma’s strongmen are not the only ones who have left foreign governments struggling to come to terms with policies that are failing to deliver changes in Rangoon.

The international community is also undermining its own strategies because of the yawning gap between governments’ rhetoric and reality, Burma watchers say.

”Pressure through sanctions will not work in Burma as long as it is not systematic and coordinated, which is the case at the moment,” says Debbie Stothard, coordinator of ALTSEAN Burma, a regional network of rights groups.

Burma’s neighbours are providing an economic lifeline to the military government through their investments, adds Stothard.

Singapore and Thailand have been investing in the manufacturing, construction and the tourist industry in Burma. New Thai investments last year were over 25 million U.S. dollars, according to available reports.

But Western nations like Britain are equally guilty. ”If you look at aggregate investment in Burma, British investments come second after Singapore, the leading investor,” adds Stothard.

Rangoon can get away with its political policies as long these economic links continue, she adds. ”Besides that there is the black market economy the junta can survive on, like the money derived from the production of heroin and other drugs.”

Little wonder why Rangoon has had no qualms squandering the goodwill it earned after releasing Suu Kyi, critics say.

As for ambassador Razali, his quitting as the U.N. envoy would only affirm that Burma’s military government stole a march over him.