BALKANS: A Nuclear Light Goes Out

By Vesna Peric Zimonjic Reprint | | Print |

Vesna Peric Zimonjic

BELGRADE, Nov 17 2006 (IPS) - Two reactors at the Kozloduy nuclear power plant in Bulgaria that are considered dangerous will shut down Dec. 31. And just in time, as Bulgaria joins the European Union the next day, together with neighbour Romania.

One of the preconditions for Bulgaria’s full membership in the family of European nations was the closure of Kozloduy, one of the most controversial installations of the kind.

Situated some 200 km north of capital Sofia, on the banks of the Danube River and near the border with Romania, Kozloduy once had six nuclear Soviet-built reactors. It provided both Bulgaria and its neighbours with cheap electricity.

After the EU and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) declared the complex “non-upgradeable at reasonable cost”, Bulgaria closed down the first two 440 megawatt reactors in 1992.

The deadline for the next two is Dec. 31. They belonged to the first Soviet generation of uncovered reactors. The remaining two, of a new and safe generation and with 1000 megawatt generation capacity, will remain operational.

But while the shutdown of old style reactors has been hailed by the EU and environmentalists both at home and abroad, experts warn that the closure will cause severe energy problems in the region.

“Our research has predicted that, in the coming three years, south-eastern Europe will face shortages, power cuts and high electricity price rises,” Energyobserver, the most prominent organisation that deals with energy issues in the region said in a report.

“As the traditional exporter of electricity into Albania, Greece, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Romania and other countries, Bulgaria covered the better part of their needs for consumption. Preliminary analysis shows that the shutdown of two reactors of Kozloduy will scale down its overall exports to the level of current exports to Greece only,” Energyobserver expert Dejan Stojadinovic wrote in his report.

“This is of particular importance at a moment when economies of most of the countries in the region are finally growing at a steady rate of five or six percent or more, and the electricity consumption needs are rising at the level of five percent annually,” energy expert Sijka Pistolova told IPS. “It is a problem for these nations to find an alternative, as there is hardly any.”

No country in southeastern Europe, a region with a population of 55 million, has sufficient electricity production. The closure of Kozloduy reactors 3 and 4 will drain about 40 percent of the pool of electricity that Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro and Kosovo use to cover their energy deficits, according to Platt’s, the industry newsletter.

The nations of former Yugoslavia, such as Serbia or Montenegro, went through devastating wars through the 1990s. One consequence was that no new plants were built, and old ones exploited to the furthest possible limit.

Other countries, such as Albania or Macedonia, went through a harsh transition into market economy that left little resources for maintenance of existing capacities. All countries are left with old coal fired power plants and some hydropower systems that need reconstruction.

Based on supplies from Bulgaria, the biggest exporter in the region, the countries of southeastern Europe created a free energy trading zone only a couple of years ago.

The Kozloduy installation enabled Bulgaria to meet 40 percent of its domestic needs and to export 20 percent of the electricity it produced.

Bulgarian minister for economy and energy Rumen Ovcharov called on the EU last week to reconsider the timing of the Kozloduy closure, due to the “panic” and “tragic consequences” this might produce in the region.

European Parliament rapporteur for the country Geoffrey van Orden called for “greater flexibility” from the EU on the deadline for the two reactors’ shutdown. European Parliament members Romana Jordan Cizelj of Slovenia and Edit Herczog of Hungary made a similar request, citing the need to ensure regional stability. They said the Dec. 31 deadline for the closure be extended to the end of August 2007.

“Bulgaria currently exports electricity to every neighbour,” the parliamentarians said in a statement. “Even allowing for limited replacement generation by highly polluting lignite plants, power cuts in the region are certain.”

Besides power cuts, which lasted for ten hours a day in Albania or in neighbouring Kosovo last year, the high rise of electricity prices is also an issue. Modest estimates predict at least 20 percent rise.