EGYPT: A Marriage Becomes Everyone’s Business

By Adam Morrow Reprint | | Print |

Adam Morrow and Khaled Moussa al-Omrani

CAIRO, May 8 2007 (IPS) - The marriage last week of Gamal Mubarak, son of President Hosni Mubarak and influential member of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), has led to renewed speculation about the presidential scion’s political ambitions.

While the younger Mubarak continues to deny any intention to run for president, many political observers took the wedding as a sign that “inheritance” of the highest office is imminent.

“The wedding was intended to augment Gamal Mubarak’s popular standing in advance of the coming inheritance of the presidency,” Abdel-Halim Kandil, editor-in-chief of opposition weekly Al-Karama told IPS.

On May 4, 44-year-old Gamal was married to Khadiga al-Gamal, 24, daughter of wealthy Egyptian construction magnate Mohamed al-Gamal. The couple had been engaged since early last year.

The wedding into a business family is seen as significant because Gamal spearheads the business policy unit of government, which in turn has become politically powerful.

The wedding ceremony was held at the Red Sea resort town Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula. Along with the President and first lady, the event was attended by some 500 guests, including leading NDP members as well as friends and relatives of the bride and groom.

A handful of major political figures from around the region were also in attendance. These reportedly included Saudi foreign minister Saud al-Faisal and Saad al-Hariri, head of Lebanon’s Future movement, and said to be a personal acquaintance of the groom.

Security arrangements were extremely tight, particularly in light of the fact that a major regional conference on Iraq had been convened in Sharm el-Sheikh a day earlier.

Ever since he was appointed head of the NDP’s influential Policies Committee in 2002, speculation about Gamal’s political trajectory has mounted. Composed largely of prominent businessmen, the committee is responsible for setting the ruling party’s political agenda. It was closely involved in drafting recent amendments to the national constitution.

According to some local commentators, the Policies Committee – like its unelected chief – enjoys excessive influence over party policy and the legislative process.

“Draft laws drawn up by the Policies Committee go straight to parliament, where they are rubber-stamped into law by the NDP-dominated assembly,” Ahmed Thabet, professor of political science at Cairo University told IPS.

The influence of Gamal and his circle of pro-business associates extends into the cabinet as well.

In 2004, a major ministerial reshuffle saw several economic portfolios go to figures closely associated with Gamal. Known collectively as the ‘economy group’, they include finance minister Youssef Boutros-Ghali, trade and industry minister Rachid Mohamed Rachid and investment minister Mahmoud Mohieldin.

Gamal himself is an investment banker by profession. After receiving a masters degree in business administration from the American University in Cairo, he worked in London for the Bank of America for almost 10 years.

In contrast to the party’s older cadres, this faction of relatively young self-styled reformers has led the charge towards trade liberalisation and Egypt’s integration into the global economy. Its members have consistently called for – and in many cases achieved – tariff reductions on imports, the privatisation of state assets and the opening of the country to foreign investment.

In terms of foreign policy, this ‘new generation’ is also known for its closeness to the U.S., Cairo’s long-time patron. Gamal and his pro-business associates have visited Washington on a number of occasions for closed-door consultations with counterparts in the Bush administration.

They have also shown a degree of readiness to cooperate with Israel – with which Egypt shares a peace treaty – in spite of Tel Aviv’s massively unpopular policies on the issue of Palestine. This cooperation has taken the form of a trilateral trade deal between Egypt, Israel and the U.S. penned in 2004, as well as a 2005 agreement for the sale of Egyptian natural gas to the Jewish state.

The influence of this young generation of “reformist” leaders has been felt in other vital state institutions as well, including the sprawling state media apparatuses.

In 2005, several executive positions within government-owned publishing houses were filled by members of Gamal’s business-friendly circle. New postings included the editorships-in-chief of the big three state dailies, including the internationally recognised Al-Ahram.

In February of last year, Gamal was also appointed assistant secretary-general of the NDP, further fuelling speculation about his political ambitions.

Critics note that, in the five years since his political debut, the younger Mubarak has, with the help of friendly state media, achieved an unrivalled public profile.

“Gamal’s recent statements sound like those of a president or prime minister,” said Thabet. “And he is given massive official receptions whenever he travels around the country, not unlike a president or PM.”

In spite of his meteoric rise within the ruling the party, however, Gamal has consistently stated that he has no intention to make a bid for the presidency.

“I have no aspirations for an executive position of this kind,” he said in a May 1 interview on an Egyptian satellite television channel. “I think I can best help the party by continuing to serve on the Policies Committee.”

He added: “Neither the NDP, nor anyone else, can force a nomination on someone if they are not willing.”

But despite these denials, the recent nuptials have again fired speculation about Gamal’s political future. According to many analysts and opposition figures, he is being groomed to take the place of his aging father, who turned 79 the same day as the wedding.

“General opinion doesn’t believe the denials regarding his political ambitions,” said Kandil. “In 1994, President Mubarak promised that neither of his two sons would enter politics, but Gamal did – just like he privatised the public sector after saying he wouldn’t.”

Such conjecture, however, has been accompanied by a degree of uncertainty as to the role of Egypt’s powerful armed forces in any possible succession scenario. According to some analysts, the country’s discreet but powerful military institutions would oppose the appointment of Gamal to the presidency.

“The military wouldn’t let Gamal take the presidency because he has nothing to offer other than the fact that he’s the president’s son,” said Kandil. “Those who back Gamal for president are those powerful members of the business community who stand to benefit from his policies.”