POLITICS-THAILAND: Opposition Party Gives Premier Reason to Smile

By Marwaan Macan-Markar Reprint | | Print |

Marwaan Macan-Markar

BANGKOK, Apr 22 2003 (IPS) - Thailand’s leading opposition party, the Democrats, may have all but ensured that Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra crosses another milestone at the country’s helm and soon becomes the first premier to complete a four-year term.

That sense is being evoked here following Sunday’s election of the Democrat Party’s new leader, 61-year-old Banyat Bantadtan, who critics say is unlikely to infuse strength into the opposition to challenge Thaksin’s rule.

The headlines in Tuesday’s newspapers reflect this political current. ”Banyat, a leader in transition?” and ”Democrat ship lumbers on its merry way,” said ‘The Nation,’ an English-language daily.

In fact, there is speculation even among Banyat’s own party members that he may end up on the other side of the political fence and right in Thaksin’s party.

”Chuan wary of Banyat’s reassurance," the front-page headline of another English-language daily, the ‘Bangkok Post’, said. This lead story reflected the concern of Chuan Leekpai, the retiring leader of the Democrats and a two-time premier, that Banyat may join forces with Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thai) party in government.

”In electoral terms, Banyat does not bring anything to make the Democrats different from the Thai Rak Thai,” says Sunai Phasuk, an analyst at Forum Asia, a Bangkok-based regional human rights lobby. ”He has no political track record as a visionary, as a fighter.”

Newspaper columnists like Thepchai Yong were as caustic. Banyat has ”left virtually no memorable political marks – either positive or negative,” he wrote in a commentary in ‘The Nation’ on Tuesday. Banyat is ”the kind of politician who is ‘seen but rarely heard’.”

In the run-up to Sunday’s poll for the Democrat Party leadership, many had expected a younger contender, 39-year-old Abhisit Vejjajiva, to have sufficient support from party leaders and other members to win the vote.

Moreover, Abhisit was viewed as the ideal candidate in recent polls to take on the powerful and popular government of Thaksin, one that over the years has been accused of trying to intimidate the media, or pushing populist programmes that hurt the economy in the long run.

Newspapers like ‘The Nation,’ a champion of the opposition party, also favoured the fresh face of Abhisit to the older visage of Banyat.

”Champagne must have been flowing at Thai Rak Thai headquarters after veteran Banyat Bantadtan narrowly beat boy wonder Abhisit Vejjajiva to clinch the leadership of the Democrat Party,” lamented ‘The Nation’ in an analysis Monday.

Banyat, however, is determined to stand tall in his hour of victory. He has pledged to create a new team with a fresh agenda when he takes over the reins of the party on May 4.

”Future political battles will be decided by good teams of high-quality professionals,” he was quoted as having told the ‘Post.’ ”Open, adjust and change” would be the main ideas governing his policies.

Banyat becomes the sixth leader of Thailand’s oldest political party. The Democrat Party was formed 57 years ago and has held party conventions to choose its leader.

Despite this record, the Democrats have been reduced to a weak opposition grouping in the 500-member parliament. It currently commands only 132 seats, as opposed to the 364 parliamentarians backing Thaksin.

What is more, in the two years since Thaksin triumphed at the polls with the biggest margin of victory in the country’s political history, the Democrats have not succeeded in stalling any of the premier’s largely populist political agenda.

Among Thaksin’s programmes are a debt repayment scheme to help farmers saddled with loans and a village fund scheme, where one million baht (23,250 U.S. dollar) loans were assured to each of Thailand’s 78,000 villages for income-generating projects.

”Sunday’s election casts further doubts about the Democrats’ willingness to reform and change with the political times,” says Sunai. ”They need to offer new ideas and a policy that will be viewed by the people as a sound alternative to Thai Rak Thai.”

But without a clear challenge on the political horizon, Thaksin is in a situation none of his 29 predecessors have enjoyed. After all, fragile coalition governments in Thailand have often been brought down either due to the slim majorities they had in parliament or regular in-fighting and factionalism, assisted by pay-offs.

Besides that, the country’s political instability is also reflected in its history of ever changing constitutions and military coups. Since 1932, when Thailand became a constitutional monarchy, this South-east Asian nation has had 16 new constitutions and 17 military coups.

Already, Thaksin, a business tycoon, has achieved a milestone that none of those who ran the government before dared attempt – changing Thailand’s over 100 year-old bureaucracy, which has enjoyed immense levels of power and control in national politics.

In September last year, he passed sweeping bureaucratic reforms that signalled a shift in the political order, making the bureaucracy now less powerful than the parliament.

No wonder commentator Thepchai was prompted to say that given how Thaksin’s party has ”drastically changed almost overnight – the Thai political landscape,” the new leader of the Democrats will have to offer a fresh formula to ”bring the party from its political nadir”.

”The traditional politicking perfected by the Democrats no longer suffices in winning elections,” he adds. ”It has to do more than changing the guard.”