RUSSIA-POLITICS: The Now and Future General

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Sergei Strokan

MOSCOW, Oct 21 1996 (IPS) - Russia has taken in stride the dramatic events that culminated in the dismissal last week of Gen. Alexander Lebed as head of the security council. But the beacon of public anxiety has merely shifted — from Kremlin intrigue and back- biting to the state of the President’s health.

Boris Yeltsin’s delicate heart operation scheduled for mid- November is looming as another in the sequence of “do-or-die”, “crucial”, “vital” events which have made Russia’s modern political life like a roller-coaster riding through a typhoon.

Political analysts agree with Lebed’s own assessment of his future, delivered in the indelible tones of a Hollywood movie tough guy: “I’ll be back”. They say the General is down but decidedly not out. His future political prospects depend however on the president’s heartbeat.

Indeed, some analysts say the dismissal of Lebed after a period of unprecedented Kremlin in-fighting marked the start of the race to see who will be Russia’s next president. Constitutionally, the premier replaces the president if he is incapacitated. Fresh elections would have to be called within three months.

A frail-looking Yeltsin appeared on television last week to sign the decree removing Lebed from the post he had held for four months. Yeltsin, ailing for weeks, was at his Barvikha rest house preparing for the heart by-pass operation he needs if he is to have a normal life.

Lebed’s inability to work as part of the presidential team was cited as the reason for the sacking. On Saturday the president appointed Ivan Rybkin, a former chairman of the Duma (lower house of parliament) to head the Security Council.

Lebed told a press conference he was a “Black Sheep” in the Kremlin and blamed Premier Viktor Chernomyrdin and presidential chief of Staff Anatoly Chubais for his removal.

“I was an obstacle to Chubais’s plans to establish a regency,” said Lebed. “He wants to become president”.

Yelsin’s decision followed a public accusation by Interior minister Anatoly Kulikov that Lebed was preparing a coup d’etat by conspiring to form a 50,000-strong “Russian Legion” under his personal command. Kulikov said 1,500 Chechen fighters were prepared to come to Moscow to assist Lebed in the alleged takeover plan.

The Minister’s statements were part of an unprecedented name- calling and rumour campaign which intensified as the President’s health worsened. Lebed had himself accused Kulikov of creating a bloodbath in Chechnya and establishing “concentration camps” there in which thousands of people had died.

Former presidential chief bodyguard Alexander Korzhakov, ousted by Yeltsin last summer and now running for a parliamentary seat with Lebed’s support, weighed in to say he had “compromising materials” on top figures in the Kremlin.

“The ousting of Lebed shows clearly that Chernomyrdin and his allies just have no other option but to get ready for possible new elections in Russia, although they prefer the status quo with Yeltsin at the wheel,” said Dmitry Pinsker, political commentator with the Moscow “Itogi” newsmagazine.

Lebed, a popular general with war experience in Afghanistan, and an advocate of “law and order”, came third in last summer’s presidential elections. He got 11 million votes in the first round and was coopted by Yeltsin as Security Chief before the decisive second round of voting. This alliance was instrumental in bringing final victory to Yeltsin.

But Lebed quickly fell out with Chernomyrdin and Chubais. He had attempted to bring the economic policy of the government under the umbrella of “national security matters”.

“It should have been done long ago. Everyone understands this,” Chernomyrdin told journalists after the general’s dismissal. Other political leaders — if not the general public — also cheered the dismissal. The opposition-dominated Duma voted almost unanimously in support of Yeltsin’s move.

The Russian press also reacted favourably. The comment of “Nezavisimaya Gazeta”, a liberal Moscow daily, reflected the views of this sector. It said the move “will certainly bring the tensions down”.

Analysts said in the medium term, Lebed may pose a greater threat to Russia’s political elite than ever. Public opinion surveys have confirmed him as the most popular politician.

His main trump card is his only concrete achievement during the four months he held office — the August 31 Khasavyurt agreements that stopped the war in Chechnya. But that was “the issue given the highest priority by the electorate,” said Pinsker.

Lebed is now freed of responsibility for managing the peace process in Chechnya, which means he cannot be blamed for its breakdown. And he can claim that he did not have sufficient time to implement the crime-fighting plans that were part of his campaign platform.

The image he established of being a “doer”, coupled with his popularity as “law and order” man among an electorate battered by everyday problems of non-payment of wages, corruption and crime, are likely to place him as front-runner in the next presidential elections.

But analysts say he is no “knight in shining armor”.

“Lebed certainly has sharp political instincts, but he is by no means better than the others,” says Andrei Piontkovsky, head of the Moscow-based Strategic Studies Center.

“This man has several times unambiguously stated that he holds no political convictions, that he is neither a “democrat”, nor a “communist”. Subscribing to contradicting economic platforms, he has shown he has no clear ideas for Russia’s economic revival either.”

Piontkovsky says the General’s instincts “are that of a dictator, striving for absolute power. But today, given the mood of the country, his chances of coming to power by democratic means are quite good”.

Many analysts talk about post-election Russia actually having three governments – the cabinet under Chernomyrdin, the presidential staff under Chubais and Lebed’s Security council.

But Sergei Markov, of the Moscow office of the U.S. Carnegie Foundation says: “From his appointment Lebed’s authority was based not on administrative, financial or organizational resources of the Security Council, but on his activity and popularity. And now his opponents have successfully deprived him of any political opportunities.”

Lebed himself promised last week to “fine-tune a political structure” to “prepare for possible future elections”. It would include the Congress of Russian Communities (KRO), the block that he headed and represented in the state Duma and “Honour and Motherland” — a recently established nationalist group of pro- Lebed military forces. He could run for a seat in the Duma, or seek election as a governor.

Experts predict the Kremlin will try to isolate Lebed even further by mounting fresh personal attacks.

“There is likely to be an attack on Lebed in the media to convince the people his coup plans were true and he is a bad guy. There will be a news blockade on him and it will probably work,” says Sergei Markov.

This would be particularly evident on the state-run Russian TV Channel 1. Already the other influential Russian TV broadcaster — NTV — which touted Lebed during the summer presidential poll has recently turned against him.

“NTV is becoming the voice of the government. Now it led the public to understand that Lebed should be dismissed”, Yasen Zasursky, Dean of the Moscow University School of Journalism told IPS.

NTV is mostly owned by Vladimir Gusinsky, arch-enemy of Gen. Korzhakov. Lebed is also unlikely to get support from the present principal opposition force – the Communists.

The Communist faction in the Duma has been recently more and more cooperative towards the government in day-to-day economic matters. Their leader Gennady Zuyganov is no match to Lebed as a public political performer.

All in all Lebed’s presidential aspirations depend largely not on his own activities in the nearest future, but on Yeltsin’s health. Should the incumbent die or step down for health reasons, Lebed could still be in a strong position to win the resulting elections. He could appeal to a coalition of opposition forces on the strength of his past performance.

But if Yeltsin will be able to stay his present term and his team will be able to continue the Chechen peace process while keeping Lebed off the stage, the general’s chances become more problematic.

“By mid-November, when Yeltsin’s heart by-pass operation is provisionally scheduled, we will know where we are,” said Dmitry Pinsker, Moscow “Itogi” magazine observer told IPS.