POPULATION-RUSSIA: Declining Birth Rate Seen as Threat

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Sergei Blagov

MOSCOW, Dec 28 1999 (IPS) - The painful stress of economic crisis, transition from a socialist system to a market economy and social upheaval have triggered a steady decline in Russia’s population.

International and Russian experts warn that the continuing decline poses a threat to the country’s future.

It’s clear that the population question in Russia appears to have special dimensions compared to other nations, said Philippe Elghouayel, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) representative in Russia.

“Misunderstanding and confusion about the issue lead to political utilization of the problem, thus having negative impact on searching for solutions,” he told IPS.

Analysts argue low birth rate and high mortality rate fueled the steady seven-year decline in the population, which now totals some 146 million people.

The number of deaths exceeded births by an average 1.6 times, and by 2.7 times in some particularly depressed regions. The death rate was highest in central regions such as Ivanovo, Novgorod, Pskov, Tula, Tver and Ryazan.

The birth-death ratio reversed between 1989 and 1995, with deaths rising annually from 1.6 million to 2.2 million, compared with a drop in births, from 2.2 million to 1.4 million.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia’s population shrank by 1.2 million people.

This decline has been somehow counterbalanced by an immigration flow of ethnic Russians from the former Soviet republics as an estimated annual rate of 200,000-300,000 people.

In May 1999, Russian president Boris Yeltsin was impeached in Parliament for, among other accusations, “genocide” against the Russian nation with policies that destroyed the economy and sent life expectancy plunging.

However, some Russian experts argue the country’s population decline commenced well before the economic reforms of 1990s.

“Russian families started having fewer children since the 1930s, and notably in the 1960s,” said Andrei Volkov, head of the demography department at the State Statistics Committee.

Many Russian families, facing an uncertain future, have decided not to have more children. The average number of children born to each Russian woman is 1.26.

Experts believe the figure must be at least 2.15 to maintain stable population growth.

Demographers blame the soaring mortality rate and low birth rate on the Russian economic crisis, the painful conversion into a market economy and a sharp deterioration in health care.