MIDEAST: Momentum on Road Map Slows

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Peter Hirschberg

JERUSALEM, Jul 24 2003 (IPS) - The momentum that initially propelled the road map plan for peace in the Middle East has evaporated.

The familiar tit-for-tat recriminations of the last three years are creeping back. Each side, convinced by its own claims, now expects the other to make the next move. The Palestinians want Israel to release large numbers of prisoners from its jails and withdraw its troops from West Bank cities. The Israelis insist progress depends on the Palestinian Authority cracking down on armed groups.

If the current stalemate drags on, it threatens to stymie the latest U.S.-led peace initiative in the region. That is why President George W. Bush has summoned both Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas (also known as Abu Mazen) and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to Washington, for a round of diplomacy later this month that will either breathe new life into the process, or mark the beginning of its demise.

"Sharon wants to dictate the road map," senior Palestinian legislator Saeb Erekat told IPS. "It is essential that Abu Mazen emerges with a comprehensive, clear timetable for implementation of the plan. God help us if he comes back empty-handed. There is a huge pressure cooker building up on the ground."

Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom insists the onus is on the Palestinians: "The time has come for the Palestinians to fulfil their obligations…to dismantle the terror infrastructure and stop the incitement," he said in a recent statement.

Sharon may have hardline ministers in his cabinet who are sceptical of any peace moves, but he has wide public backing. Abbas does not. He is clearly the one under greater pressure: Palestinians are increasingly disenchanted with him over what they see as his failure to extract concrete concessions from Israel.

He has told Sharon he wants a "significant" number of the 6,500 Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails released. So far, Israel has decided to release only 400. He has also been unable to persuade Sharon to continue the withdrawal of Israeli troops from West Bank cities, to fulfil the road map requirement of dismantling dozens of illegal settlement outposts in the West Bank, or to remove many of the army roadblocks in the territories that badly hamper Palestinian travel.

Frustrated Palestinian leaders say they have delivered in the form of a truce. Violence is down dramatically since the armed groups agreed to cease attacks on Israelis on June 29. But the leaders say they have got little in return.

"Sharon is supposed to freeze settlements," says Erekat. "He hasn’t. He is supposed to order the army back to the positions it held on the eve of the Intifada in September 2000. He hasn’t. He is supposed to have lifted the closures. He hasn’t."

Abbas will communicate all these demands to Bush. He also wants the U.S. President to press Sharon to lift the travel ban Israel has imposed on Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat. Abbas has been criticised for agreeing to visit Washington while the Palestinian leader remains grounded in Ramallah.

Until now, Abbas’ strategy has been to ignore criticism from the public as well as carping within the ruling Fatah party, which Arafat heads and he helped found. He is concentrating on getting Washington to pressure Sharon to make concessions.

It is a high-stakes game: if he succeeds, he believes the public will rally behind him and the various Palestinian factions will have no choice but to back him. But if he emerges from this round of diplomacy with little to show for his lobbying of Washington, his term as prime minister could be a very short one.

"If no progress is made in this important visit to Washington, we are sure that Abbas will face a tough situation among the Palestinian people and in the Palestinian Legislative Council," says Palestinian Information Minister Nabil Amr.

U.S. officials say they are aware of the need to bolster Abbas, especially if they want him to serve as an effective counterweight to Arafat, who they want to sideline. They are hoping that the photo-ops with the U.S. President will do the trick, in part.

That is unlikely. Most Palestinians view Abbas as something of a U.S.- imposed appointment – Arafat only agreed to establish the post of prime minister under intense U.S.-led pressure – and a bear hug from Washington could cement this impression. "If you want to strengthen Abu Mazen, Mr. Bush, then get Israel to release prisoners, stop settlements, lift closures and remove roadblocks," says Erekat.

Sharon is likely to be presented with a U.S. demand to halt the construction of a security fence in the West Bank, and to alter its route. The Bush administration appears to have adopted the Palestinian position that the fence, which Israel is building as a unilateral measure aimed at keeping suicide bombers out of its cities, will affect future negotiations between the sides by predetermining the border between Israel and a future Palestinian state.

Sharon will have some demands of his own: he wants the U.S. to press the Palestinian Authority to move against armed groups. Israeli security officials warn that militant groups like Hamas are using the three-month truce they declared to reorganise and rearm. Sharon wants a U.S. guarantee that the ceasefire will not be a substitute for the dismantling of Palestinian militias.

Abbas has already said he has no intention of complying. "Cracking down on Hamas, Jihad and the Palestinian organisations is not an option at all," he said on his way to Washington, during a stopover in Cairo.

He has repeatedly said he prefers dialogue with militant groups to confrontation, which he fears could spark a civil war. Abbas also knows that his Palestinian Authority security forces, emaciated after being battered by the Israeli military during the Intifadah, are not yet in shape to take on Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

But it is not just the Israeli and Palestinian leaders who are under scrutiny. When Bush travelled to the Jordanian port city of Aqaba last month to officially launch the road map, he said it was a sign of his personal commitment to peace in the Middle East. With the plan faltering, the depth of that commitment is about to be put to the test.