DEFENCE-GULF: Economic Slump Slows Arms Build-up

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Sanjay Upadhya

DUBAI, Mar 21 1999 (IPS) - Amid military instability and an economic slump in the Gulf region, the United Arab Emirates this week was the scene of a new arms build-up — of a commercial nature.

More than 800 companies from 43 countries took part in Abu Dhabi’s five-day International Defence Exhibition (IDEX) that ended on Thursday.

Weapon-makers from around the world vied for contracts from Arab Gulf and North African nations, showcasing top-of-the-line howitzer guns, armoured vehicles and helicopters.

The fair’s chief guest was the commander of U.S forces in the Gulf, General Anthony Zinni, who led last December’s US-British air raids on Iraq.

By the end of the show, however, the region’s economic slump came into sharper focus. There were none of the large agreements that were signed during previous exhibitions.

Although government’s sealed contracts worth some 176 million dollars, that amount fell short of the 200 million dollars recorded at the last exhibition in 1997.

Abu Dhabi launched the defence show in 1993 after Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait three years earlier forced the small Arab Gulf states to embark on massive defence modernisation programmes.

In recent years, military sales to the region have accounted for about 40 percent of total global sales.

Before the oil price plunge, defence analysts expected Gulf states to spend about 80 billion dollars on new weapons and equipment upgrades over the next five years. In one of the largest deals in the region, the UAE last year ordered 30 French Mirage 2000-9 fighters and 80 F-16s from the United States for a total cost of 11 billion dollars.

Talks on the details of the 8 billion dollars-F-16 deal hit a snag after Abu Dhabi insisted on getting full control over “source codes” for the most advanced F-16, the Block 60, and its weapons systems.

On the day IDEX was opened, UAE Chief-of-Staff Lt Gen Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed told state television his country’s options on aircraft purchases were still open.

He demanded that the 80 F-16 aircraft, made by Lockheed Martin, “must be appropriate for the field of operations and the airspace in the UAE and the Gulf.”

Defence experts say such codes would enable the planes to determine whether approaching aircraft were friendly or hostile. Washington says it cannot release the full codes because of legal restrictions on the export of advanced technology.

Few people here readily accept that argument. “The real reason behind Washington’s stance is its long-standing policy of helping Israel maintain its military superiority in the region,” one Arab diplomat said.

“No policy-maker in America would be willing to allow any Arab country to receive technology that would give us that kind of an edge,” he added.

Some experts maintain that the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states can boost their long-term security only by adopting a collective regional security strategy.

“The massive investment in arms purchases within the GCC must be used to take up the obligation for collective security,” Maj Gen Patrick Cordingly, who is with the Omani armed forces, told a security conference held on the sidelines of IDEX.

He said the funds individual states spend on their defence needs could be pooled for joint production and procurement of weapons and equipment.

Saudi Arabia has made the first moves towards building a local arms industry with the launch of its first tank. “Fahd”, named after the kingdom’s monarch, can operate in extreme temperatures and is ideal for the desert climate, its manufacturers said.

The kingdom already produces light military equipment, assault rifles and munitions and Saudi officials say they also plan to make artillery pieces and surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles.

However, divisions within the GCC on some key regional issues could block them from evolving a rapid reaction force or any other integrated defence mechanism. Qatar, for example, has

disputes with Bahrain and Saudi Arabia over undemarcated borders.

Kuwait and Oman see Iran as a positive force for regional security, particularly as a counterweight to Iraq “a view not shared by the other four GCC states.

Qatar and Oman had moved towards normalising relations with Israel after the Oslo peace accords in 1993, but they were pressured by other GCC states to freeze their positions.

“There has often been a lack of unanimity within the GCC on many core security issues. This has, in a significant way, encouraged these states to deal with external threats by a combination of diplomacy, inter-Arab coalitions, and even financial contributions to ward off potential aggressors,” a diplomat said.

Government officials are quick to acknowledge the economic woes their nations are facing – even in the midst of an elaborately planned arms exhibition.

“We have all been affected by the economic crisis and all defence budgets have been affected,” Brigadier Staff Sultan Al Suweidi, chairman of the IDEX organising committee, told reporters.

But he stressed that defence remains a priority issue in the region – a realisation that drew all those arms merchant to the Arabian desert this week.

DEFENCE-GULF: Economic Slump Slows Arms Build-up

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Sanjay Upadhya

DUBAI, Mar 21 1999 (IPS) - Amid military instability and an economic slump in the Gulf region, the United Arab Emirates this week was the scene of a new arms build-up — of a commercial nature.
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