REVIEW 2000-SRI LANKA: After Set-backs, Year Ends with Hopes For Peace

By Feizal Samath Reprint | | Print |

Feizal Samath

COLOMBO, Dec 21 2000 (IPS) - As Sri Lanka’s bloody ethnic conflict enters its 18th year, there are signs that the year 2001 would see a de- escalation in the battle between Tamil Tiger rebels and government troops and even bring the former to the negotiating table.

Political analysts note that President Chandrika Kumaratunga now has wider political backing for her efforts to resolve one of the world’s longest running internal conflicts.

They have also observed a greater receptivity on the part of the rebels to international efforts to make the two sides talk peace.

Analysts expect a Norwegian peace bid, backed by the United States, the European Union and India, to pick up pace in the coming year.

“Most countries are backing Norway and would offer any kind of help to see the war ending in Sri Lanka,” says a Western diplomat here.

According to latest reports, Norwegian negotiators are working out a schedule — with the consent of both sides — that will include confidence-building measures and peace talks to be held either in Oslo or London.

The steps to boost mutual confidence would require the government to lift an economic embargo on rebel-held areas in the north of the Indian Ocean island nation. The rebels in turn would have to free government prisoners.

Senior government officials, who did not want to be identified, told IPS that the government is prepared to ease the economic curbs, but wants the rebels to give up assassination attempts against government leaders and top military personnel.

Kumaratunga has again offered to start the peace talks. Addressing donor countries at the Sri Lanka Development Forum held Dec. 18 in Paris, the president, however, said the government would not accept any conditions set by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).

“There is a ray of opportunity, more hope for reaching a solution,” she was quoted as saying. “Our doors are open for negotiations with the LTTE. We will endeavour to do all that is possible to bring the LTTE to the negotiating table,” she said.

The rebels have rejected earlier offers of peace talks, saying that the government must first declare a cease-fire. But, they insist they are not demanding that government troops be pulled out from the northern Jaffna peninsula.

Jaffna was under rebel control for nearly five years till the army recaptured it five years ago.

“Sri Lanka has misinterpreted our call for the creation of conditions of normalcy as a situation that includes the withdrawal of armed forces from Jaffna. We did not demand the withdrawal of the armed forces,” the LTTE said in a statement issued from its London office.

Political analyst Kethesh Loganathan of the Centre for Policy Alternatives, is optimistic: “I don’t see why a cease-fire and a truce cannot take place any moment now.”

So is Jehan Perera, media director at the National Peace Council, a citizen’s group that is working to help find a peaceful settlement of the ethnic conflict.

“I am very optimistic. There are much more initiatives now than in the past to end this war. There is internal pressure and external pressure on both sides. The people are tired of the war,” he says.

However, the People’s Liberation Front, better known by its Sinhala acronym JVP, and the country’s third largest political force, has joined Sinhalese hard-line groups in criticising foreign intervention in Sri Lanka’s crisis.

The JVP opposition could affect peace moves, but many analysts believe the group’s protest does not represent the majority view in Sri Lanka.

“These protests are more vocal and mostly because the government is still undecided on whether to accept the rebel offer of peace talks. I believe the government is close to making a positive announcement on this issue and when this happens, the protests would be muted,” says Perera.

The Sinhalese are the majority community and accused by the LTTE of discriminating against Sri Lanka’s minority Tamil people. The Tigers launched their violent campaign for a separate home for the Tamil community in the year 1983.

The conflict is estimated to have claimed more than 60,000 lives. The fighting has driven thousands of Tamils out of the country, ravaged the economy and cast a shadow over foreign investment and tourist arrivals.

A military spokesperson told IPS that latest figures show that so far 11,473 army troops have been killed in the ethnic conflict between January 1983 and October 31, 2000. Another 2,291 police, navy, air force and para-military personnel have perished during the same period.

Military figures also show that 6,375 civilians and 20,098 rebels have been killed in the conflict during this period. However, analysts say these figures do not take into account those who have disappeared and this could amount to another 20,000.

A rebel statement mid-December said they had lost more than 16,300 fighters since the conflict began.

The government has proposed constitutional reforms, which would offer greater autonomy to the Tamil people in their home areas. But Sinhalese hard-line groups say the reforms would divide the country and give too much power to the Tamils who form about 18 percent of Sri Lanka’s 19 million people.

The government is counting on the Norwegian initiative. Last year, Oslo’s offer to mediate was accepted by both sides. In what is perceived as a breakthrough, Norwegian special envoy Erik Solheim met LTTE chief Velupillai Prabhakaran in the latter’s jungle hideout in November.

The Tiger chief offered unconditional peace talks then, an offer, which he repeated in a late November speech.

Political observers expect the peace talks to begin in the next few months as the main opposition United National Party (UNP) is also urging this. Even pre-war Prime Minister Ratnasiri Wickremanayake is said to be finally changing his stand to accept a political settlement of the conflict.

Wickremanayake, who has so far favoured a military solution and had earlier ruled out a truce with the rebels, declared mid-December that he would not oppose peace talks with the rebels.

Government troops have recovered from stunning defeats earlier this year, which saw the rebels capture a great deal of army-held territory in the north.

The rebel offensive was halted after the army’s fire-power was boosted by stepping up defence spending from a projected 50 billion rupees (640 million U.S. dollars) to nearly 80 billion rupees this year.

“The army has tremendous fire-power, but the economic cost of taking territory is enormous and 100 times more than last year. That’s why the process is slow,” says leading Tamil journalist S. Sivaram.

A former rebel himself, Sivaram is, however, pessimistic about peace talks beginning in the next few months. “I think things are very negative at the moment and the army is not in a very advantageous position,” he wrote.

“The military may not oppose peace talks but won’t be happy about it,” he added.

According to analyst Loganathan, while one section of the army is confident about defeating the rebels, others think the war should end because of the high military casualties.