DISARMAMENT: Conference Faces Adverse Climate

By Gustavo Capdevila Reprint | | Print |

Gustavo Capdevila

GENEVA, Jan 7 2000 (IPS) - Wars and international disputes have generated an unfavourable climate for the annual sessions of the Conference on Disarmament (CD), to get underway in this Swiss city on Jan 17.

In 1998, the talks were shaken by nuclear tests in India and Pakistan, and the following year the mood at the conference was further altered by the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) bombing of Yugoslavia and the Russian offensive in Chechnya.

A two-year virtual deadlock is not expected to give way in the first few months of the new year. But there are hopes that headway could begin to be made at the Apr 24-May 19 conference on the International Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

Some governments plan to keep a low profile during the Jan 17- Mar 24 period of sessions, in order not to compromise their position at the NPT conference in New York, said a source with links to the CD, who asked not to be named.

The most recent achievement chalked up by the CD dates back to 1996, when it got the United Nations General Assembly to finally approve the long-debated Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.

Since then, the talks have basically been at a standstill, held up by differences between countries and blocs. And in 1998 and 1999, the conference even failed to agree on a working programme.

In 1998, the CD approved an eight-point agenda, addressing issues such as nuclear disarmament, a halt to the nuclear arms race, the prevention of an arms race in outer space, negative security guarantees and transparency on weapons.

The same agenda was adopted in 1999, and is expected to be approved once again this year.

But the problem remains the lack of consensus on a working programme for implementing the agenda.

The CD generally sets up ad hoc groups to discuss the points on the agenda. At other times it designates ad hoc coordinators to organise consultations on specific issues.

At the end of its last annual period of sessions, in September 1999, the conference commissioned Leslie Luck of Australia, holding the rotating chair at the time, to make contacts with the member countries during the recess with a view to working around the deadlock.

Luck’s efforts, however, made little to no headway. Since Jan 1, Austrian representative Harald Kreid has held the chair.

Several CD member countries believe the forum should make an effort to reach an understanding to get the negotiations back on track. They are in favour of a limited agreement that would allow the conference to come up with at least some positive results this year.

The delegations say agreement could be reached, for example, on two or three points on which the possibility of consensus had begun to take shape last year, such as negative security guarantees, through which nuclear powers would pledge not to use their arsenals against non-nuclear states.

Another point on which some progress had been made in consultations during last year’s session was the question of transparency in arms which, among other objectives, is to guarantee the effective functioning of the UN Conventional Weapons Registry, and establish controls on international trade in weapons.

Negotiations on that issue, however, are still being obstructed by the objections raised by Egypt, which wants all weapons of mass destruction – including nuclear, biological and chemical weapons – to be covered by an agreement on transparency,

Negotiators prefer to keep expectations on the results of this year’s session at a minimum, given the unfavourable conditions surrounding the disarmament talks.

The atmosphere became even more strained last year, when the United States Senate failed to ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear- Test-Ban Treaty, despite the insistence of the government of President Bill Clinton.

Another negative effect arose from the US attempt to modify the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty signed with Russia.

And a likely agreement on a ban on the production, stockpiling and export of fissile material has been blocked by nuclear countries like India and, especially, Pakistan, which appear to be focused on creating even bigger stockpiles of fissile material, essential to the manufacture of nuclear warheads.

Last year, China announced that it no longer considered a fissile cutoff treaty a priority. Beijing, reacting to US progress in anti-missile technology, demanded instead the creation of an ad hoc committee on the prevention of an arms race in outer space.