BURMA: Dialogue Process Adrift after Failed Visit by U.N. Envoy

By Larry Jagan Reprint | | Print |

Larry Jagan

RANGOON, Oct 3 2003 (IPS) - U.N. envoy Razali Ismail’s latest mission to Burma has ended in apparent failure, leaving him emptyhanded in efforts to revive the dialogue between Burma’s military rulers and the pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi – not to mention secure her release from house arrest.

Throughout out his two-day visit to Burma, Razali was tight-lipped. "I met all the key people I came to see and as the U.N. representative had useful discussions with them," was all he would say as he left the country Thursday.

The lack of apparent progress means that Burma is likely to take centre stage at the South-east Asian leaders’ summit in Bali next week. The member countries of the Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN) were hoping to see some kind of sign that Rangoon is planning to introduce significant political and economic change.

Without any concessions from Burma’s military rulers from Razali’s visit, there will be even greater pressure on Prime Minister Khin Nyunt to give his South-east Asian counterparts concrete details and a timeframe for the changes he has in mind as part of a road map to democracy for Burma.

Khin Nyunt is reported to have appealed to Razali to give him more time to be able to prepare for political change. "We need some time," said Burma’s Foreign Minister Khin Maung Win. "The government has announced its seven-stage road map and is working on already – it is the blueprint for the country."

”Our position has always been that the process (of democratisation) must be homegrown,” he said, adding that Rangoon had all intentions with cooperating with the United Nations.

Still, "there is no doubt that Mr Razali has gone away empty-handed," said a diplomat in Rangoon. "His reticence to comment on the outcome of his mission clearly reflects that."

During his trip Razali did see the country’s top three generals – Senior Gen Than Shwe, Prime Minister Gen Khin Nyunt and the army chief, Gen Maung Aye.

He had intended to see Aung San Suu Kyi a second time before leaving, but decided against it because there appeared to be no message from the generals to convey to her.

But according to Razali, the opposition leader said she was prepared to work with the new prime minister and his road map to democracy – though there would be conditions to that participation.

Among these conditions is that all the other leaders of her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), would have to be freed.

They have been under house arrest for more than four months now ever since the violent attack on Suu Kyi’s car and supporters by armed pro-government protestors in the north of the country on May 30, which left several people dead.

Other conditions include the reopening of the NLD’s office and party workers being allowed to resume their normal political activities without being harassed or arrested by the authorities.

Suu Kyi has also demanded the release of all political prisoners, with the 30-odd activists detained in the wake of the Depayin incident in May freed immediately.

She is also demanding justice for the victims of the attack and a thorough investigation into what happened, and who was involved.

But diplomats believe that while the opposition leader is adamant that the incident cannot be brushed aside or forgotten, she is prepared not to allow it to stand in the way of serious political talks – if they are in fact in the offing.

Diplomats interviewed here said that the lack of movement on the dialogue with Suu Kyi seems to indicate that Rangoon’s military leaders have not quite agreed on how to handle the issue.

However, Khin Nyunt has indicated that he intends to reconvene the National Convention, which was established more than 10 years ago to draw up a new constitution.

But it has not met since 1996 after the NLD walked out, accusing the military authorities of not allowing a free debate or discussion and simply using it to rubberstamp decisions already made by the generals.

Still, the convening committee has been reformed and new members appointed, largely because several older members have retired or passed away. Apart from those who are there because of their legal training or position, many of the new members are from military intelligence and believed to share Khin Nyunt’s vision of change.

"The ethnic minorities have been contacted and told to prepare for the convention’s opening," said a ethnic leader in Rangoon who declined to be identified. "Some of them have even been told to have new suits made," he said.

Razali discussed the issue of the structure and composition of the National Convention with Khin Nyunt during his visit. "I made some suggestions and observations," he said after his meeting with Khin Nyunt, but declined to elaborate.

"The U.N. envoy suggested that the prime minister consider reforming the Convention on the basis of forty percent being for the political parties on the basis of the 1990 election results, thirty percent the ethnic minorities – split equally between those who have signed ceasefire agreements and the others, with the remaining thirty percent being military or government representatives," said a senior diplomat in Rangoon.

But neither Khin Nyunt nor his boss Gen Than Shwe seem to have reacted to Razali’s suggestions.

"The government still needs to decide who will be attending the National Convention," said the Deputy Foreign Minister Maung Win. "But we are preparing for its opening – the technical and logistics considerations are being dealt with," he said. "Accommodation has been booked and the transport arrangements – trains and buses have been booked.”

The crucial issue for the region and the international community is whether Burma’s generals – especially Khin Nyunt and Than Shwe – are prepared to give Aung San Suu Kyi and her NLD a central role in the reconvened National Convention and the national reconciliation process.

The NLD has consistently said it would not return to the Convention unless it is radically reformed and restructured.

"It was the NLD who walked out of the National Convention, so it is up to them to return," said Maung Win.