ARMS-CHILE/US: Concern over Big F-16 Sale

By Jim Lobe Reprint | | Print |

Jim Lobe

WASHINGTON, Jan 11 2001 (IPS) - The US decision to authorise the sale of advanced warplanes to Chile is causing concern among arms-control experts and Latin American specialists who say the deal raises questions about the Chilean military’s continued influence over the civilian government.

They also warn that the sale could raise tensions in the Southern Cone region and spur a new arms race that could divert scarce public resources from badly needed butter to guns.

Some analysts are urging Washington to persuade Chile to modify its request for 10 new, top-of-the-line, C/D model F-16 jets and accept older F-16 models that would be far less expensive and be seen as less of a threat to the country’s neighbours.

“There may be a way to provide Chileans with a suitable defensive air fleet without giving away the store,” according to Tom Cardamone, an expert at the Washington-based Council for a Liveable World (CLW), an arms- control advocacy group.

“They could sell them twice as many slightly used (F-16) A/Bs for the same amount of money,” he said, adding that such a sale would enable Washington “to reassure Chile’s neighbours and historic rivals that they don’t need to feel threatened”.

The Chilean air force announced late last month that, after four years of review, it had decided to buy 10 C/D F-16s at a cost of about 600 million dollars to replace its ageing fleet of French Mirages and F-15 jets, which date from the 1960s. The F-16s, which are produced by Lockheed Martin, won out over warplanes produced by France, Sweden, and another US company, McDonnell-Douglas.

The State Department said Wednesday that it was “very pleased” with Chile’s decision and indicated that it will accept the offer subject to at least one condition.

The Chileans had asked that the F-16s be equipped with the latest- generation Amraam missile system. Amraam missiles, which enable pilots to track and shoot targets that are “over the horizon” are among the Pentagon’s most sophisticated weapons.

Department spokesman Richard Boucher said Washington will sell the missiles to Chile, but withhold their delivery until another country in the Southern Cone acquires a comparable weapon from another source. He said that withholding delivery was consistent with a global US policy not to introduce new technologies in any region that could upset the existing balance of power.

“If somebody else has such missiles into the region, then we would deliver ours to the Chileans,” Boucher said.

Washington adopted such a policy 24 years ago under former President Jimmy Carter. Carter also imposed a specific ban on sales of advanced weapons to Latin America which was ruled mainly by military dictators at the time.

That ban was considered by arms-control experts to be a major reason why South America spent less on arms than any other region over the past two decades. With one exception – the sale of a fleet of older F-16s to Venezuela in the early 1980s – it was observed by Carter’s two Republican successors before it was lifted by President Bill Clinton four years ago when Chile first indicated its interest in buying F-16s.

While the Chileans have suggested they will insist on delivery of the Amraam system, most analysts here believe that Washington’s counter-offer eventually will be accepted. At the same time, the incoming administration of President-elect George W. Bush, which is seen as friendlier to the arms industry, may decide to review the State Department’s position. Lockheed Martin is based in Bush’s home state of Texas.

The Chileans have also included in their package conformal fuel tanks that would enable the warplanes to fly much further than they otherwise could. Arms-control analysts say these, too, could give Chile an offensive capacity which could only provoke tensions in the region.

But even without the Amraams and the fuel tanks, according to Latin America specialists here, the sale of the United States’ most advanced F- 16s to Chile risks setting off an arms race in the Southern Cone. While tensions in the region are calmer than they were when Chile first invited bids in 1997, the military in Argentina, Bolivia, and Peru are certain to press for new weapons to counter the potential new threat from Santiago, they say.

“I don’t see the strategic rationale behind the buy, other than to keep the Chilean military happy,” said Wayne Boese, senior analyst at the Arms Control Association (ACA) here. “And when you introduce more advanced weaponry, neighbours feel compelled to move in the same direction, either because they feel a threat, or as a matter of prestige – like ‘keeping up with the Jones’.”

George Vickers, director of the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA) agreed with that assessment, noting that when Washington initially gave permission for US companies to bid on the package, the decision set off a chain reaction in the region.

In order to placate Argentina, the US recognised it as a “non- NATO ally”, a status previously reserved for close US allies in the Middle East and Asia. That, in turn, provoked a strong reaction from Brazil which announced that it, too, was considering buying at least 70 new warplanes worth up to two billion dollars.

“After the initial flap, the Brazilians moved things to the back- burner, but Chile’s moving forward and moving forward with ‘beyond-the- horizon’ stuff is sure to bother Argentina, and that in turn will be a problem for Brazil.”

Peru, another traditional rival of Chile’s, is also likely to be affected, said Vickers. “This will complicate even further what are already tense relations between the a very fragile new civilian government and Peru’s armed forces which will demand that the government respond in kind.”

“The fact that all of these countries are just emerging out of quite difficult economic times raises the question of whether they can afford it,” he added.

And for Chile itself, according to Michael Shifter, an analyst at the Inter-American Dialogue, the sale “raises questions about who is making the decisions”.

“Does (President Ricardo) Lagos really consider this a priority? If so, what is his argument for the sale?” asked Shifter. “To what extent does this reflect the continued influence of the military?”

Some analysts here believe the sale was a trade-off between Lagos and the military at a moment when the latter has become increasingly unhappy about the indictment of former President Augusto Pinochet.

Under the constitution written by Pinochet, which remains in effect, the military enjoys a certain autonomy and can use earnings from Chile’s copper exports to buy weapons. Indeed, the air force would probably have bought the F-16s by now if the copper price had not fallen so sharply since late 1996, according to Cardemone who says he is still not sure that Santiago has enough money to afford the 600-million-dollar deal.

ARMS-CHILE/US: Concern over Big F-16 Sale

By Jim Lobe Reprint | | Print |

Jim Lobe

WASHINGTON, Jan 11 2001 (IPS) - The US decision to authorise the sale of advanced warplanes to Chile is causing concern among arms-control experts and Latin American specialists who say the deal raises questions about the Chilean military’s continued influence over the civilian government.
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