POLITICS-ARGENTINA: Early Elections, a Real Possibility

By Marcela Valente Reprint | | Print |

Marcela Valente

BUENOS AIRES, May 6 2002 (IPS) - The government of Eduardo Duhalde, who was designated caretaker president of Argentina last January to govern for two years, is showing such severe signs of weakening that early elections are becoming a stronger and stronger possibility.

“We want elections in 30 days!” a young law school student shouted Friday on a call-in radio programme whose presenters had asked the audience if Duhalde should complete the term of government for which he was appointed, which ends in September 2003.

The idea of early elections, which has caught on among the public and in the neighbourhood assemblies that have cropped up all over Buenos Aires in the past five months of crisis, is also seen as a last-ditch emergency option among ruling party and opposition lawmakers.

Talk of an early end to Duhalde’s interim presidency became particularly insistent last week, and even the president told the provincial governors that “if my departure contributes something to putting an end to the crisis, you have my resignation.”

Duhalde’s approval ratings have steadily declined since January, while the proportion of opinion poll respondents in favour of scheduling early elections – an alternative that looked unworkable just a few months ago – has increased at the same time the crisis has deepened.

Late last month, things took a new turn for the worse. The national currency, the peso, continues to weaken, prices are on an upward spiral, wages are falling, and the recession, which has dragged on for four years, continues to destroy jobs.

With the deposits of millions of savers partially frozen in the country’s banks since December, a satisfactory solution to the financial crisis is becoming less and less likely, while the wrath of account-holders, expressed in daily street demonstrations, has not stopped growing.

Caught up in uncertainty and desperation, people are buying up dollars, further fuelling a vicious circle.

In response to the latest peak of the crisis, Duhalde replaced his economy minister. The delay in finding a replacement for Jorge Remes Lenicov highlighted the dearth of qualified individuals willing to risk their reputations by taking the helm of a sinking ship.

In the end, the post was accepted by economist Roberto Lavagna, who in his first week merely promised to put an end to a banking and foreign exchange holiday and accelerate the approval of new laws demanded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as a condition for the eventual disbursement of financial aid.

Duhalde, meanwhile, was left virtually without the support of any real power-brokers to give new life to his cabinet.

Three new ministers were sworn in Friday – the ministers of labour, the interior and the head of the cabinet – after a week in which important provincial governors continued to publicly express their support for Duhalde, while stopping short of accepting invitations to help the government fight the collapse of the economy.

“Duhalde’s days are numbered,” Ernesto Tenembaum, a commentator on the television programme Periodistas (Journalists), said Saturday.

At the same time, columnist Joaquín Morales Solá wrote in the daily newspaper La Nación that the fate of the president would be defined “over the next two weeks.”

The political shredder chewed up and spit out the weakened government of Fernando de la Rúa in December, when two years remained of his four-year term, after which it swallowed up three interim presidents: Ramón Puerta, Adolfo Rodriguez Saá and Eduardo Caamaño.

Now it has begun to gnaw away at the support base of the Duhalde administration, which has failed to clearly mark the direction it plans to take, wavering between threats to break away from the IMF and melodramatic pledges to carry out the adjustments demanded by the international lender, even though they are judged socially unsustainable by local analysts.

“I don’t know how viable a government that merely attempts to survive in the midst of a tremendous crisis can be in the short- term,” political scientist Marcos Novaro, a professor at the University of Buenos Aires and the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences, told IPS.

After de la Rúa was forced by food riots and protests to step down on Dec 20, Novaro, like many other political analysts, wanted parliament to designate a caretaker government, as it ended up doing. The responsibility fell on Duhalde’s shoulders, but now, according to the expert, the transition “is not working.”

“Duhalde has not proposed major changes, but is merely trying to survive. He is doing what he can, which is very little, and he is immobilised by a great ambiguity. His government is like an exaggerated version of the failed administration of de la Rúa,” which was blamed for its passivity, said Novaro.

He added that he was in favour of calling early elections and of reforming the role of the cabinet chief, to turn him into a kind of prime minister who relies on parliamentary support.

Under that system, the president would be directly elected by popular vote, and the head of the cabinet would be chosen by the legislature, in order to strengthen the support the new government would enjoy.

Most observers agree that the only thing keeping Duhalde in power is the lack of any real alternative, as well as the severe internal fractures that the crisis has caused in the ruling and opposition political parties, and in other influential sectors like business and the banking system.

Novaro said that if elections were called now, the votes would be spread out among a wide range of options, which could lead to the election of a president with a weak mandate – an argument in favour of the proposal of reforming the role of the cabinet chief.

Two of the possible successors to Duhalde are governors Carlos Reutemann of the northeastern province of Santa Fe and José Manuel de la Sota of the north-central province of Cordoba, according to political analyst Rosendo Fraga. Both men belong to Duhalde’s Justice (Peronist) Party, and neither wants to take the leap before the timing is right.

On Friday, de la Sota and Reutemann expressed their backing for Economy Minister Lavagna. De la Sota – who pushed for elections when de la Rúa fell – denied that the leaders of the political parties were considering the possibility of early elections today.

Parliamentary Deputy Elisa Carrió, who heads a new centre-left party, Argentines for a Republic of Equals, continues to enjoy an unusually high level of public confidence, according to the polls. However, while her approval ratings are high, her support level drops when pollsters ask the public who they would vote for president.

The crisis crippling Latin America’s third-largest economy presents an unprecedented experience for voters. Argentines continue protesting in the streets as they watch unemployment and poverty soar to nearly 25 and 50 percent, respectively, with no solutions in sight and no leaders capable of implementing the changes needed.