RUSSIA-ELECTIONS: Kingmaker Lebed Closes in on Throne

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Sergei Strokan

MOSCOW, Jun 18 1996 (IPS) - Its horse-trading time in Russia.

President Boris Yeltsin Tuesday named one of the men who ran against him for president — former army general Alexander Lebed — to be security adviser and head of the powerful Security Council. Then the Kremlin sacked Defence minister Pavel Grachev, Lebed’s old enemy.

The moves represented the kind of undisguised electioneering expected between now and next month’s runoff presidential election between Yeltsin and Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov who led the field in Sunday’s inconclusive ballot.

Lebed came third in the first found of the presidential election. Now Yeltsin and Zyuganov have zeroed in on Lebed’s supporters. Yeltsin wants these polls to be held on July 3, a week- day.

Ruissia is split between Yeltsin and Zyuganov. First returns from the northeast of Russia showed Yeltsin well ahead on Sunday night. However, after the results for Central and Southern Russia – known as the “Red Belt” – were announced mid-Monday, Zyuganov almost bridged the gap. He ended with 31.53 percent of votes against 35 percent for Yeltsin.

Lebed was third in the race winning 14.89 percent of votes. Grigory Yavlinsky, liberal economist and Yabloko democratic opposition bloc leader, came fourth with 7.56 percent. Ultranationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky won 5.96 percent. The remaining five candidates, including ex-Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev and the new Russian billionaire Vladimir Bryntsalov, shared five percent of the votes.

As no candidate received more than 50 percent of votes cast, the new president will be elected in a run-off between the two hopefuls early July.

“Those who were saying that Yeltsin would emerge as an unquestionable leader after the June 16 ballot are adopting a more restrained approach now,” says Dmitri Olshansky of the Centre for Strategic Studies.

“The sense of euphoria, of victory in some Yeltsin teams in the regions vanished Monday as a close race between the two leaders could be seen as a signal of trouble for the president. The first round of voting provided a mild rating of the candidates. That’s all.”

In an election address to the nation Monday evening, Yeltsin said that after the first round the question is crystal clear: the choice was between the past and the future.

However, it was not Yeltsin or Zyuganov but Lebed who came out as the real newsmaker. His third place showing was the biggest surprise of the first round.

Lebed, 46, rushed into politics in 1995 after disagreement with Defence Minister Pavel Grachev over the war in Chechnya and key issues of military reform. In 1985-95 Lebed occupied senior commands in the Russian army, including the position of the commander of Tula Airborne division in 1991 and Commander of the 14-th Army, based in the troublesome Transdnestr region of the republic of Moldova in 1992-95.

Lebed has managed to draw on the electorates of different factions, including some potential supporters of Yeltsin, Zyuganov and Zhirinovsky.

“The shift of Zhirinovsky’s electorate to Lebed shows that Lebed could well fit his shoes,” Sergei Solodovnik, research fellow with the Institute of International Relations told IPS.

Most analysts agree that “the phenomenon of Lebed” reveals that an increasing number of Russian voters do not like either Yeltsin or Zyuganov and are looking for the “third force”.

The turnout for the 1996 elections – 68 percent according to ITAR- TASS news agency – was slightly less than at the 1991 presidential ballots – 70 percent. However, it was slightly more than the 63 percent recorded in last December’s Duma (parliamentary) elections.

The mood of those who refused to vote this Sunday was best expressed by Arkady Klimov, 36-year-old Moscow and unemployed. “Am I crazy to waste my time? Nothing would change in my life regardless of who would win. I’d better go to my orchard – its just time to sow potatoes,” he angrily told IPS.

Judging by the results of the first round, analysts say the lead- up to the second round could be a time for fervent campaigning, coalition-building and horse-trading. Several hours after the preliminary results were announced, a powerful group of Yeltsin’s advisers rushed to Lebed to negotiate the coalition, Independent Russian Television reported.

Yeltsin himself, who, according to the constition cannot stay president for more than two terms, has made several hints that it is Lebed who could be his likely successor after June 2000. It is also expected that similar negotiations would be held with Yabloko leader Grigory Yavlinsky who earlier claimed a coalition with Yeltsin is possible provided the president would make a drastic cabinet reshuffle.

Elections must be held every four years. No president can serve more than two terms. However, from a modest beginning when he was first elected president of the Russian federation within the USSR in June 1991, Boris Yeltsin has secured more powers than any other elected leader in the world, enabling him to ignore the will of parliament, rule by decree and install his nominee in every key post in the country.

While the constitution has a mechanism for the impeachment by parliament of the president in the event of his violating his own statutes – or his removal on health grounds – in practice this would be very hard to do. It would require parliament’s upper house — the Federation Council — traditionally a bastion of support for Yeltsin, to put its demand for such a move to the Constitutional Court.

The State Duma, the stronghold of the opposition is empowered to vote no-confidence in the government but not in the president. But even if the Duma does vote down the government, the president can simply choose to ignore laws if he uses his influence.

“The weakness behind the system is the absence of any mechanisms to cultivate political development or encourage consistency. While Yeltsin remains the president, he is free to do virtually what he will,” Sergei Avdeenko, political editor of the ‘Itogi with Newsweek’ Russian newsmagazine told IPS.

This makes some independent analysts strike a pessimistic note claiming that Yeltsin’s or Zyuganov’s victory would not make great difference for the development of Russia’s political system.

If Zyuganov were to win the presidential race, he would inherit the sweeping powers that Yeltsin has used effectively to his own advantage. Constitutionally he wouuld have ample powers to undertake whatever policies he saw fit.

Similarly, if Yeltsin wins in the second run-off, there are no provisions to ensure that he will fulfull his election promises and apply the pro-reform policies that has characterized the latter weeks of his campaign.