RIGHTS-CHECHNYA: Russians Determined to End War by December

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Sergei Blagov

MOSCOW, Nov 11 1999 (IPS) - Recent history seems to have taught Russia’s military leadership that a humanitarian catastrophe may make embarrassing headlines for a few days, while determined action and a sweeping victory leave durable dividends.

Russia’s Defence minister Igor Sergeyev promised Thursday to”end the anti-terrorist operation” in Chechnya before the end of 1999, backing general Viktor Kazantsev, commander of the Russian operation in Chechnya who said on Wednesday that he could flatten the Caucasian republic in a week.

In a statement that will probably be later remembered as an ironic touch, Kazanstev added: “but that would be a war, while what we are conducting is an antiterrorist operation.”

With strong support from the population and political leaders, the Russian government has shown no sign of slowing its military advance in the rebellious region. Most politicians dismiss Western criticism as biased and irrelevant.

The Russian troops are now moving toward blocking the Chechen capital Grozny, while Chechnya’s second city, Gudermes, is also surrounded. Their tactic is based on surrounding towns and villages, relying on air power and artillery barrages – thus avoiding direct assaults and casualties.

Ingush President Ruslan Aushev, however, lashed out the Russian government on Wednesday, for causing sufferings of civilians in Chechnya. Some 200,000 Chechen refugees have fled to neighbouring Ingushetia since the beginning of the Russian assault in September.

Delegates from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which acted as the only mediator between Russia and Chechnya during a 1994-96 war, visited Ingushetia to inspect the humanitarian fallout.

A delegation led by Norwegian diplomat Kim Traavik expressed grave concern over humanitarian situation there. But Russian Emergency Situations Minister Sergei Shoigu has denied that there was a”humanitarian catastrophe.”

As the offensive proceeds, Chechen president Aslan Maskhadov has issued an appeal to start peace talks, promising to combat terrorists in Chechnya. Only two months ago Mashkadov had demanded the extradition of “war criminals” as a condition to negotiate.

The “criminals” are the Russian generals who led the disastrous Chechen campaign in 1994-96.

Moscow – which is still ignoring Maskhadov’ pleas – has been subject to mounting international pressure to stop its offensive in Chechnya. U.S. President Bill Clinton NATO Secretary-General George Robertson and German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer have asked for a political settlement.

But Russian leaders have dismissed the criticism, arguing that they have nobody to negotiate with, as Maskhadov is viewed as a leader controlled by the”terrorists,” blamed for a series of deadly apartment bombings in September which killed some 300 people.

Russian politicians dismissed Western pleas for peaceful solution in Chechnya as double standards in action, arguing that civilian casualties in Yugoslavia during the NATO air war earlier this year caused few concerns in the West.

“Under similar circumstances president Clinton would definitely act even stronger – like any normal president responding to terrorist threat,” argued Evgeny Mikhailov, governor of Russia’s Pskov region. “And this criticism is just political rhetoric, which does not worth any attention whatsoever.”

Moscow urged the West not to focus on Chechnya at the forthcoming summit of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in Istanbul, Turkey on November 18-19.

The Kremlin has said it is willing to talk about Chechnya, but opposes making it the main point in Istanbul, according to Foreign Ministry spokesman Vladimir Rakhmanin.

Moscow also denied a U.S. claim that Russia was violating the Geneva War Convention with indiscriminate attacks on civilians.

The new Russian attacks over the past days in the central and western parts of Chechnya attacks have taken a heavy toll on civilians, argues Diederik Lohman, Moscow representative of the New York-based Human Rights Watch (HRW).

HRW has called on Russian commanders to cease attacks on civilians, as well as carpet bombing. The Geneva Conventions, to which Russia is a party, emphasise the principle of civilian immunity and prohibits attacks if they are indiscriminate or disproportionately harmful to civilians, HRW argued.

However, despite the obvious existence of legitimate humanitarian concerns, this criticism is unlikely to impress the Russian public opinion. According to a recent poll, two thirds of the Muscovites would support even stronger military action in Chechnya.

Some Russian media outlets have pointed at the similarity of the statements issued by the State Department and U.S. human rights activists.

Furthermore, it is widely accepted that halting Russian offensive at this point could be fraught with unpredictable repercussions. On Thursday, Russian Defence minister Sergeyev had to dismiss – once again – rumours about alleged disagreements among Russian generals.

General Vladimir Shamanov, commander of the Russian Western front in Chechnya, has threatened to resign, should the operation be halted. He was also quoted by local press as saying that the country could be driven to the brink of civil war if president Boris Yeltsin yields to Western demands.

Sergeyev and General Staff chief Anatoly Kvashnin issued a joint statement on Nov 6, denying media reports of a split between the armed forces and Yeltsin’s administration over the campaign in Chechnya.

Shamanov and other generals who led the 1994-96 campaign in Chechnya still feel betrayed by the Kremlin, which clinched a controversial peace deal with the Chechen rebels three years ago. The generals believe an imminent victory was stolen by political leaders.

Ingush leader Aushev also accused the Kremlin of using the military campaign in Chechnya to boosting prime minister and presidential hopeful Vladimir Putin’s popularity. Putin’s tough handling of the campaign has propelled him to the top of opinion polls ahead of next year’s presidential election.

It has been widely accepted that disputes over oil transit were behind the tragedy in Chechnya. Russia has been keen to use its Baku- Novorossiisk export route for Azerbaijani”early” oil exports.

But the pipeline goes through Chechnya and now a new alternative trans-Georgia pipeline and a new terminal at Supsa on the Black Sea are ready for oil exports.

Another project envisages building a pipeline across Turkey to the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan for the larger quantities of Azerbaijani oil expected in the next century. The Georgian and Turkish projects are carried out by an international consortium led by British Petroleum-Amoco and supported by the U.S.

Analysts warn against indiscriminately labelling the Chechen fighters. ” It’s a mistake to portrait all Chechen militants as extremists – they are rather ‘Che Guevaras in Turbans’ who started their revolt in protest against Moscow’s arrogant policies,” says Georgi Derluguian, Sociology professor at the Northwestern University in Chicago.

“However, if left alone, Chechnya could degenerate into a barbarous den of pirates and, quite possibly, an obscurantist, patriarchal and clanish realm,” he told IPS.