POLITICS-GERMANY: Immigration Raised as Last-Minute Poll Issue

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Yojana Sharma

BERLIN, Sep 19 2002 (IPS) - Conservatives fighting to beat incumbent Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder have brought up immigration in a last-ditch effort to win the election this Sunday.

Christian Democrat and Christian Socialist leaders raised the issue in recent days despite an earlier agreement that neither side would allow xenophobia or immigration issues to muddy the election.

But as Schroeder from the Social Democrats overtook Christian Socialist candidate Edmund Stoiber with a three point lead in several opinion polls, Stoiber announced he would overturn Germany’s first ever immigration bill if he wins. The bill seeks to regulate immigration while also seeking to attract skills Germany needs.

“This law massively expands immigration in all areas, ” said Guenther Beckstein, interior minister for Bavaria region where Stoiber is premier. Beckstein is likely to figure prominently in Stoiber’s cabinet if he wins. “I am convinced the goal is to turn Germany into a modern multicultural country of immigration,” Beckstein said. “That’s exactly what we don’t want.”

Bavaria and five other conservative-led states challenged the new immigration law in the Supreme Court in July, claiming that it had been passed unconstitutionally. Beckstein said the law was “irresponsible” and a threat to peace at a time when four million Germans were unemployed and seven million foreigners were already “crowding” the labour market. He said the new law would bring in more than 100,000 immigrants a year.

Schroeder’s aides accuse Stoiber of desperate tactics to win back a lead that appears to have been evaporating in recent days. “It is a despicable attempt to fend off an election defeat,” said Social Democrat interior minister Otto Schily. “I believe that all parties have a duty to deal with this issue very responsibly.” The immigration bill had the backing of employers organisations and unions, he said.

Turkish community leaders have warned against a mudslinging match with xenophobic slogans. The leaders say Stoiber is dragging up the immigration issue because he has little else to attack Schroeder with – a view many Germans seem to share.

Voters in the east, who are believed by some leaders to be most likely to take up a xenophobic line, are preoccupied with the devastation caused by the recent floods, analysts say. Schroeder put together a massive aid package for this region last month with a promise that people will “not be worse off than before the floods.”

Schroeder began to narrow the gap with these measures. A special sitting of the Bundestag (the German parliament) was called last week to redirect money earmarked for tax cuts to repairing flood damage.

Schroeder’s popularity rose also on the back of his strong stand against German involvement in a war on Iraq. He closed what had been a nine percentage point lead by the conservatives and took a narrow lead last week. Opinion polls show that Schroeder’s anti-war stance has done more to attract undecided voters than any other issue.

German commentators say Schroeder has captured the public mood in both the more conservative western parts of the country and in the pacifist east by rejecting German involvement in such a war. Many Germans fear that a war in Iraq would trigger global insecurity. Schroeder said last week that war would destroy hope of an economic upswing and the creation of more jobs in Germany.

Stoiber’s criticism that Schroeder’s refusal to support the U.S. over Iraq is “isolationist” has cut little ice with voters. As many as four out of five Germans say they oppose war.

The emergence of Iraq as a major issue in the last few weeks has overshadowed issues such as Germany’s four million unemployment and a faltering economy which the opposition blames on Schroeder’s lack of initiatives.

Stoiber said this week that Iraq’s willingness to let in United Nations (UN) weapons inspectors could ease international tensions and bring voters’ attention back to economic issues. “When the worries about war subside, then these themes will decide the election,” Stoiber said Wednesday. “The economy, work and immigration are the most important issues for the people of this country – and these are our issues.”

Stoiber is credited with stimulating the Bavarian economy, and he promises to do the same for the rest of Germany. But with just two days to go, it may be too late for him to resurrect the economy as a major election theme, analysts say.

Last weekend opinion polls had put Schroeder and Stoiber neck and neck with 39 per cent of the vote. Some polls show Schroeder falling back slightly over the last few days but most pollsters agree that barring a last-minute disaster the charismatic Schroeder together with his Green party coalition partners is heading for victory against the avuncular Stoiber.