POLITICS-EU: Europe Could Slow Down to Two Speeds

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Stefania Bianchi

BRUSSELS, Dec 15 2003 (IPS) - As the intergovernmental conference on a new constitution for the European Union collapsed over the weekend, a dispute has arisen over a "two-speed Europe".

At the close of the meeting Saturday, France and Germany, the core founder members of the Union, talked of the possibility of like-minded nations integrating more closely in the absence of a constitution. That would leave other states on the sidelines.

"If we do not reach a consensus in the foreseeable future, then a two-speed Europe will emerge," German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder told a news conference after the talks broke down. "That would be the logic of such a final failure."

French President Jacques Chirac said he also hoped to see a small group working together on closer cooperation.

"This will provide an engine, an example that will allow Europe to go faster, further and better," he said. Chirac pointed to defence, economic policy and justice as three areas where a small group could work closer together.

But former Italian prime minister Giuliano Amato who was vice-president of the Convention on the Future of Europe which drew up the draft constitution, rejected the notion of a two-speed Europe.

"I am opposed to the prospect of a European avant-garde heading off on its own," he said in a statement Monday. "If today we divide without having created a strong common fabric, the result will beàtwo Europes each heading off on its own, each weakened by the other and neither carrying any weight in the world."

The failure of the summit throws the future of an enlarged EU into question, John Palmer, political director of the European Policy Centre, an EU think-tank in Brussels told IPS Monday.

"The impasse over key aspects of the new constitution may reflect the limits of how far European integration can be achieved among all 25 countries, at least for some time to come," he said.

"The summit crisis needs to be seen against the background of falling public support for the Union and for enlargement (as most recently reported by the EU’s own Eurobarometer opinion poll) and in the context of the feeble and vulnerable recovery of the EU economy."

The events of the weekend coming on the heels of the demoralising split among member states over the United States led invasion of Iraq and a loss of direction over the single currency "suggest that deepening will continue to lag behind widening," Palmer said.

The problem of handling the EU constitution will now fall on Ireland which takes over EU presidency in January.

Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern has ruled out another intergovernmental conference on the constitution for the next couple of months.

He said the Irish presidency will consult member states and present an assessment to the European Council in March. Swedish Prime Minister Goran Persson said serious talks were unlikely to resume until the first half of 2005.

The failure of crucial talks to unify an enlarged European Union has plunged the bloc into crisis.

The 15 core member states and 10 new members set to join the European Union (EU) in May next year appear more divided than ever.

Leaders were forced to abandon talks over a first constitution for the EU after a dispute over voting rights proved insurmountable.

At the heart of the dispute was an insistence by Poland and Spain to maintain the number of votes they were allotted in the Treaty of Nice three years ago, even though this would give them almost the same voting rights as Germany with about twice the population of either of them.

The talks collapsed when Poland refused a final compromise offered by Italian Prime Minister and current head of the rotating EU presidency Silvio Berlusconi. The proposal would have extended their Nice Treaty voting weight up to 2014..

The failure of the talks means the voting system agreed at a summit in Nice in 2000 will apply until November 2009.

Finger-pointing started just hours after the collapse of the intergovernmental summit. With it came fears that the failure to reach an agreement may deepen splits over the speed of integration.

The breakdown capped a year in which EU member states were split over war in Iraq, when EU budget rules were bent, Sweden voted against joining the euro, and Britain delayed a referendum on the same issue.

The failure of the summit will undoubtedly add to the growing crisis of confidence in the EU, and may fuel even more skepticism about the EU.

The first test of this will be elections to the European Parliament next June. A low turnout is feared.