A PEACEFUL SOLUTION FOR VENEZUELA

By Christena Mann and - - Reprint | | Print |

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WIENACHT, SWISS, Aug 1 2003 (IPS) - As early as August 19, 2003,Venezuela plans to hold a recall referendum on its embattled president, Hugo Chavez, who was elected in 1999 on a platform of redistributing the country\’s oil wealth for the benefit of the poor, writes Christena Mann, an international schools educator currently enrolled in the Conflict esolution Masters program at Landegg International University in Switzerland. The situation in Venezuela is complicated by the fact each side in the conflict appears to believe that the other side will lose the referendum, which introduces an element of danger. In some countries, similar situations have escalated into civil war and even foreign intervention. In this article, the author asks whether a third voice could emerge from a combination of moderate voices from either side, introduce a process of cooperation, and shift the focus to the urgent challenges facing every person in the country. If so, then perhaps the immediate and pressing challenges of the country can be overcome, just as many situations of heightened tension and conflict have been resolved peacefully around the world by focusing on the common interests of all parties. Or will each side claim to speak for the real majority and insist on getting its way, continuing to propagate stereotypes aimed at boosting their own and damaging the other side\’s reputations, bringing misery for all?

As early as August 19, 2003, Venezuela plans to hold a recall referendum on its embattled president, Hugo Chavez, who was elected in 1999 on a campaign platform of redistributing the country’s oil wealth for the benefit of the poor.

Reforms introduced since then have alarmed the nation’s business sector, driving investors away. According to Miguel Rodriguez , ex-president of the Central Bank, per capita income has fallen by 50 percent over the last 10 years. Unemployment has been reported at between 25 and 40 percent, depending on the source. While Chavez remains firm in his commitment to improve the plight of the 80 percent of Venezuelan’s 24 million inhabitants that live below the poverty level, his opposition remains adamant that his policies will result in further economic and civil distress for all.

The situation in Venezuela is further complicated by the fact each side in the conflict appears to believe that the other side will lose the referendum, which i introduces an element of danger. In some countries, similar situations have escalated into civil war and even foreign intervention.

The central question is whether a third voice could emerge from a combination of moderate voices from either side, introduce a process of cooperation, and shift the focus to the urgent challenges facing every person in the country?

There is a broad range of diverse voices in Venezuela, united in preserving a free country that upholds peace, justice, and an equitable standard of living for all. How can all these voices be heard and heeded in a non-violent, productive way?

TRANSCEND is an approach to “crafting peace” through creative and consultative means. It is also an NGO with members around the world, co-directed by Johan Galtung, and Dietrich Fischer.

From a TRANSCEND point of view, there are several possible outcomes to the referendum in Venezuela. The obvious ones are that the vote is predominantly one-sided or that the referendum for some reason does not take place. A less obvious outcome is that there is a close vote that leads to a compromise in which both sides feel they have given up too much. Then there is a “transcendent” solution whereby both sides commit themselves to achieving common goals — in this case, the amelioration of poverty and the re-establishment of peace and unity.

What could this transcendent solution be?

International observers of the referendum process would ensure that it is carried out in a manner above reproach, that all citizens can freely express their democratic right to vote for the outcome of their choice, without fear, and that the result of the referendum, whatever it may be, will be respected by all.

According to the president of the Organisation of American States (OAS), Cesar Gaviria, who mediated the agreement to hold the referendum in August, this process guarantees a peaceful solution through elections, but “it does not resolve Venezuela’s problems”.

Whatever the results of the referendum, it is clear now that Venezuela is at a dangerous crossroads. According to a study on the causes of war conducted by Paul Collier of the World Bank, the combination of high unemployment and the existence of valuable natural resources has played a significant role in most of the world’s civil wars between 1960-99.

Can a third voice still emerge, one nurtured by cooperation such that conflict management will evolve into conflict resolution? If so, then perhaps the immediate and pressing challenges of the country can be overcome, just as many situations of heightened tension and conflict have been resolved peacefully around the world by focusing on the common interests of all parties, rather than on that which divides them.

Or will each side claim to speak for the real majority and insist on getting its way, continuing to propagate stereotypes aimed at boosting their own and damaging the other side’s reputations, bringing misery for all? (END/COPYRIGHT IPS)